Possible Storms - 26th Jan

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Tornado Tim
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Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

OK, time for a new thread I think.
Looks like we may a storm setup for Tommorow in the North Island.
An associated Low pressure system which is expected to be located in the South of the South Island near Queenstown and Alexandra will drag some fronts towards the North Island. A trough of low pressure located just NE of the Country will be dragging in some moist air.
The Air is expected to be completely Saturated from 500mb so the Forecasted High cloud can be a limiting factor with this setup. However due to the sounding looking quite unstable, it looks like there will be at least a Moderate Risk of some Lightning occurring in this set up. Central Eastern Waikato and the BOP look like the best place.
Potentially a good Rain maker when Convection gets going too.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Thunderstorm outlook attached for reference:
Metservice wrote: Issued at: 10:25am Saturday 25 Jan 2014

A front is expected to move east across the North Island Sunday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms producing heavy rain from Taranaki to the central high country to East Cape and northwards.Further south a low risk of thunderstorms applies as shown on the chart.

Over the South Island, a southerly change is expected to spread northwards during the afternoon and evening. There is a low risk of thunderstorms with this change over eastern parts of north Otago and the Canterbury plains.

Elsewhere, no risk of thunderstorms or significant convection.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by jamie »

Now that I have a big work car I'm more than happy to do long distance chasing. Happy to take people free too. I have to feed the moos at 1.30 2 ish but after that I can chase if there is anything worth chasing
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by spwill »

Dewpoint temps for tomorrow afternoon, conditions will be quite sultry ahead of the front
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Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by jamie »

Metservice showing waikato as the best spot. First waikato setup of the summer I think.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

This evening's updated Thunderstorm Outlook for Tommorow (26th Jan):
Metservice wrote:The combination of a frontal band moving in from the Tasman Sea and a very moist and humid northeasterly flow are expected to bring rain and thunderstorms to many parts of the North Island from Sunday afternoon.

The main risk of thunderstorms is over northern and central parts of the North Island, mainly during the afternoon and evening, but extending into the night in eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain, and there is a moderate risk of a few severe thunderstorms producing localised downpours of 20-40mm/hr (or possibly higher) from Waikato and western Bay of Plenty to Taumarunui and Taupo in the afternoon and evening,and about eastern parts of Bay of Plenty from evening and overnight. These localised downpours could produce surface and/or flash flooding, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous. A lower risk covers remaining parts of the North Island as indicated on the chart.

In the South Island, there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms about Buller and Westland from late afternoon in an unstable west to southwest flow behind the front, and a low risk about Otago and Canterbury during the afternoon and evening associated with a southerly wind change.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during the period.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

I don't think this is a chaseable setup, there is going to be lots of rain with any storm and potentially heaps of high cloud which will mask convection somewhat.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by NZstorm »

Tornado Tim wrote:I don't think this is a chaseable setup, there is going to be lots of rain with any storm and potentially heaps of high cloud which will mask convection somewhat.

Yes its a overcast skies set up and the upper levels are not unduly cold. You want to see cb tops well into the sub -20C layer for good lightning. Also the lack of surface heating a negative. We are looking for a temp of 24C to get heavy showers developing.

Precipatable water values are high (40mm+) and the eastern Bay of Plenty looks like being the most likely place where the moisture will be unloaded. Rainfall totals could exceed 100mm there tonight/Monday morn as the front moves slowly east.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by David »

Metservice has upgraded much of the risk area to high risk.

A dull overcast morning here. Overnight low was 19C
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by NZstorm »

This system will be good for the farmers nationwide. And there is a drought situation developing in north Waikato so today's rain will hopefully ease that.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

[b]Severe Thunderstorm Outlook[/b] wrote: Valid to: Midnight Sunday 26 Jan 2014

Issued at: 8:30am Sunday 26 Jan 2014

A combination of a frontal band moving east onto New Zealand from the Tasman Sea and a very moist northeasterly flow are expected to bring rain and thunderstorms to many parts of the North Island from Sunday afternoon.

The main risk of thunderstorms is over northern and central parts of the North Island, during the afternoon and evening, but extending into the night in eastern Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne. These thunderstorms will produce localised heavy rain, and there is a moderate risk of a few severe thunderstorms producing localised downpours of 20-40mm/hr (or possibly higher) from Waikato and western Bay of Plenty to Taumarunui, Taupo and Taihape in the afternoon and evening, and about eastern parts of Bay of Plenty from evening and overnight.These localised downpours could produce surface and/or flash flooding, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous. A lower risk covers remaining parts of the North Island as indicated on the chart.

In the South Island, there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms about Buller and Westland in an unstable west to southwest flow behind the front, and a low risk about Otago north of Dunedin and Canterbury during the afternoon and evening associated with a southerly wind change. There is a low risk in Nelson and Marlborough this afternoon as the frontal band moves east over these areas.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during the period.
Tstorm 1.png
Valid to: Noon Monday 27 Jan 2014

Issued at: 9:19am Sunday 26 Jan 2014

A front accompanied by a moist airmass is expected to move east across the east of the Bay of Plenty and Gisborne before dawn on Monday. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain with the front and ahead of it as indicated on the chart. There is a low risk of localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr,in the far east of the Bay of Plenty and the north of Gisborne as indicated on the map.

No other thunderstorms or significant convection expected over New Zealand during the period.
Tstorm 2.png
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by spwill »

Areas that miss out on rain today might be waiting a while for the next fall, the days ahead look stable.
Current weather here, cloudy 22C, dewpoint is 19C
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by jamie »

NZstorm wrote:This system will be good for the farmers nationwide. And there is a drought situation developing in north Waikato so today's rain will hopefully ease that.
It sure is quickly heading that way around here and slightly to my north.
spwill wrote:Areas that miss out on rain today might be waiting a while for the next fall, the days ahead look stable.
Yea if we don't get more than say 10mm we will be looking at drought conditions with nothing substantial in the forecast.

Mind you this rain today, the GFS had a real hard time picking and it sort of appeared out of no where. So whats stopping it happening again and us getting some more rain even though the models don't show it.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by spwill »

It is a shame todays front clears the moisture out as upper air temps are cool for the next few days
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by jamie »

A decent front now showing up on the taranaki radar
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

looking good for rain here now...pre frontal shower band /convergence line moving down the coast line
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by David »

Manukau heads obs wrote:looking good for rain here now...pre frontal shower band /convergence line moving down the coast line
Interesting how it's developing all along the western coastline... the MS outlook suggests the higher risk is a little bit inland from the west coast :-k
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

we have a NW wind change here now..so its a NE/NW wind convergence line
possibly sea breeze influence even (despite lack of sunshine) or simply that the wind is nore NW closer to the front in the tasman
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

thunder :)
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by NZstorm »

Thunder observed here in Grey Lynn, just now, to west.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by spwill »

lightning/thunder observed here
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by David »

Can hear thunder here now too
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by KiwiWeather »

Thunder here. Sounds like multiple cells. Heard distinctly to the north and the other, to the south east.
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Re: Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

torrential rain here
lightning observed 5 minutes ago
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Possible Storms - 26th Jan

Unread post by littleheaven »

Thunder audible in Glenfield now. Very steady, heavy rain. Extremely humid (89%) and 22 degrees.
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