Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

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Richard
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Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Richard »

Second time in a week that some areas in Canterbury are looking like there's potential of severe storms Friday ,be it a low risk ,this is on top of a high risk of storms.

Surely my area can get at least one storm this summer,so fingers and toes crossed,i'll even get the dog to cross her toes as well.

Metservice warnings -
Valid to: Midnight Friday 28 Feb 2014

Issued at: 10:25am Thursday 27 Feb 2014

The southerly change continues up North Canterbury and the Kaikoura Coast with a low risk of a few thunderstorms. Convergence areas along with cooling temperatures in the upper atmosphere are likely to trigger heavy showers about South and Mid Canterbury during the afternoon and early evening, especially near the foothills. There is a high risk of thunderstorms in this area as indicated on the chart, which may produce localised heavy rain, strong wind gusts and hail. In this area, there is also a low risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, which may produce damaging large hail in excess of 2cm.

The moderate risk of thunderstorms and hail continues over south Fiordland,Southland and Clutha during the afternoon, but eases in the evening as temperatures in the upper atmosphere warm. A lesser risk covers the remainder of Fiordland, Otago and south Westland into the afternoon.
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Last edited by Richard on Thu 27/02/2014 13:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Nev »

Richard wrote:Second time in a week that some areas in Canterbury have a severe warning out ,be it a low warning ,this is on top of a high risk of storms.
Don't mean to be pedantic, but this is a T-Storm 'Outlook', not a 'Warning'. Watches and Warnings may follow either later today or tomorrow. ;-)
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by dogmelon »

When the envelopes are drawn like that it means that any storms that form and head towards chc will do their best to scoot around the city.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by NZstorm »

Tomorrow does not look like a repeat of Sunday for Canterbury due to the southerly.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Richard »

Nev wrote:
Richard wrote:Second time in a week that some areas in Canterbury have a severe warning out ,be it a low warning ,this is on top of a high risk of storms.
Don't mean to be pedantic, but this is a T-Storm 'Outlook', not a 'Warning'. Watches and Warnings may follow either later today or tomorrow. ;-)
Okie dokie,changed the wording a wee bit.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by NZstorm »

A decent looking polar jet there today so strong forcing. The southerly will tend to cloud things up with rain but some thunder still likely given ok moisture and cold air.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Nev »

Here's this morn's MS T-Storm Outlook update. Not too much change from last night...
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Friday 28 Feb 2014
Issued at: 9:09am Friday 28 Feb 2014

A cold trough in the upper atmosphere is moving across the South Island today,bringing heavy showers and hail to much of southern New Zealand. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms across Fiordland, Southland and Clutha this morning and afternoon, although the risk eases from much of Fiordland by midday today. A low risk of thunderstorms extends over Westland and Otago this afternoon. Convergence zones and cold temperatures aloft combine to elevate the risk of thunderstorms in Canterbury to high this afternoon. These thunderstorms may produce localised heavy rain, strong wind gusts of 90 km/h, and hail of 10 to 20mm diameter. In addition there is a low risk of these storms becoming SEVERE about the foothills with damaging large hail in excess of 20mm. A lesser risk of thunderstorms extends across eastern Marlborough and southern Wairarapa later today with squally southerlies.

No thunderstorms expected over the remainder of New Zealand.
MetService T-Storm Outlook Map to Midnight, Feb 28.png
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I dont think the risk is nearly as high as last sunday. Conditions dont look as favourable for chasing although I dont doubt there will be a few rumbles of thunder.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Orion »

Rain began here about 15 minutes ago; temp. has dropped over a degree in that time to 13.5.
[dithered about which thread to post in, but I see there is a patch of red on the rain-radar image, off Oamaru...]
Anyway, brrrr!
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by spwill »

Different surface conditions to last Sunday, the NE is a big ingredient for storms

I see Oamaru is currently on 7.8C, Timaru 9.8C, Ashburton 10.9C.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Powermad »

Crappy rain here ATM.. hard to see we'll get thunder.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Good rain here, 9mm sofa,( to 4pm) but your usual wet southerly or SW developing with rain. That's it. <3
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Nev »

I see MetService amended today's T-Storm Outlook chart at 12:40pm to extend their high-risk area into the far of north Otago…
MetService T-Storm Outlook Map to Midnight, Feb 28.png
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

no thunderstorms today. raning hard here in lincoln, iv been working in west melton all day John and it certainly has chucked it down throughout the day :)
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by melja »

There was a lot of thunder out oxford way this arvo _b
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Richard »

Just had the first shower at 5.20,not surprised that was thunder out Oxford way melja,there was some tall cb's down that way about 4,00
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by melja »

Yeah and snow in tekapo village at around 700m too, mind you not to un common for down there at any time of the year.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by bpo »

Omarama and Twizel today were mostly grey, rainy, windy, cool, but clearing, sunny and warming now.

Mount John at Lake Tekapo got light snow.

http://www.tekapotourism.co.nz/videocam.html
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by melja »

Have seen a photo of snow settling on cars in the village tho.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Cold here now, Down to 7.4C 8-o
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

melja wrote:There was a lot of thunder out oxford way this arvo _b
At least it thundered somewhere today =D>
It's about time that MetService change their forecast for Christchurch and Canterbury. o_O
Last edited by NZ Thunderstorm Soc on Fri 28/02/2014 18:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Richard »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:
melja wrote:There was a lot of thunder out oxford way this arvo _b
At least it thundered somewhere today =D>
Yer,looks like its going to be summer without any storms
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Nice to have a log burner out here in lincoln now, if we had wood "still to be deliverd" id be liteing the fire tonight.
Have you got yours going John?
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by Orion »

At least a dusting of fresh snow on the hills, I see...
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Re: Canterbury storms (high risk) 28/2/14

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

mikestormchaser wrote:Nice to have a log burner out here in lincoln now, if we had wood "still to be deliverd" id be liteing the fire tonight.
Have you got yours going John?

Yes.
down to 6.6C now brrrrr. #-o
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