Southerly gales and heavy rain, March 3rd to 6th

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 03/03/2014 18:31

I see Wellington Airport reporting thunder.

Showers for Auckland today.

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 03/03/2014 18:38

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:The skies today have been delivering weather that you would expect in June or July

That's what worries me... if we are getting June/July conditions in early march, what can we expect in June/July.....

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 03/03/2014 18:47

Ripper of a lightning bolt accross the Port Hills when I was running home about an hour ago. Very little moisture though.

and i don't think there is any evidence to suggest a severe winter, its simply guesswork this far out

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 03/03/2014 19:01

looks like my area was the coldest in the country,didn't go over 10deg.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 03/03/2014 21:24

I thought only Metservice can issue weather warnings

I see CWU are issuing there own warnings, poor information from the wrong people can cause confusion especially given the high exposure through Facebook.
Don't get me wrong I love what they have done and check in on them through out the day but warnings should be left to the pros.

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 03/03/2014 21:32

melja wrote:I thought only Metservice can issue weather warnings I see CWU are issuing there own warnings, poor information from the wrong people can cause confusion especially given the high exposure through Facebook.
Don't get me wrong I love what they have done and check in on them through out the day but warnings should be left to the pros.

Hello. The warnings we issue are generally the same as what Metservice say anyway.... many of our followers often say they never look at Metservice anymore... so in a way, we are passing on that information.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 03/03/2014 21:56

re the what will the winter be like....
depends on sea surface temperatures..to a degree....at the moment they are normal in the tasman
and that wont change in a hurry..will take a run of colder than normal months to change that....
summer returns next week by the looks

one thing that was MIA last year was southerly outbreaks...but they have been coming more regurlarly this year...maybe that will continue...?

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Mon 03/03/2014 22:02

Periods of heavy showers around Akaroa today, with hail at times. Some pretty heavy gale gusts late afternoon for a time. (and more to come tomorrow no doubt)

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Mon 03/03/2014 22:03

Manukau heads obs wrote:re the what will the winter be like....
depends on sea surface temperatures..to a degree....at the moment they are normal in the tasman
and that wont change in a hurry..will take a run of colder than normal months to change that....
summer returns next week by the looks

one thing that was MIA last year was southerly outbreaks...but they have been coming more regurlarly this year...maybe that will continue...?

That's what i think, just has that feel about it. I have no doubt that if this storm was in July, we would be seeing 40c of snow to sea level!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 03/03/2014 22:16

We will go into El Nino by winter. I think that favours more of a strong SW pattern, perhaps drier in the east.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Mon 03/03/2014 22:23

The thing you are missing is the fact you don't get the huge moisture that you have at this time of year with the warm ocean, the colder the air the dryer the air and most high rain events that happen in winter are with warm air not cold so saying if this was in winter we would have 40cm snow just doesn't add up

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 03/03/2014 22:37

melja wrote:The thing you are missing is the fact you don't get the huge moisture that you have at this time of year with the warm ocean, the colder the air the dryer the air and most high rain events that happen in winter are with warm air not cold so saying if this was in winter we would have 40cm snow just doesn't add up

Agree wholeheartedly. And if that comment about el nino is right then it could be a very poor snow year (ie none) like some I recall back in the 90's ie those years without a single flake in ChCh

The point being, its just too hard to predict this far out- it will be what it will be!

And I don't mind CWU passing on the warnings in their own format...they do seem careful but unfortunately many of the facebook crowd never read the important subtexts in the details. Like much of the social media set they take sensationalist interpretations ....

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Mon 03/03/2014 23:38

its like the early 2000s the wind never letup except a day once a fortnight or so.

bpo · Unread post by **bpo** » Tue 04/03/2014 00:44

CWUweather wrote:f we are getting June/July conditions in early march, what can we expect in June/July...

Who got June/July conditions?

Down here, we got cooler temperatures, high winds and heavy rain... Conditions I've yet to experience in June/July.

Manukau heads obs · Tue 04/03/2014 07:26

I am not sold on the El Nino developing this year at this stage...
next year I would bet on it more

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 04/03/2014 07:38

BOM are predicting a developing El Nino the winter http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

Manukau heads obs · Tue 04/03/2014 08:10

yes, but its not there in the sea surface temperatures in the eastern pacific at this stage
(the atmoshpere and ocean are out of sync at the moment)
things are still swinging from one to other all the time

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Tue 04/03/2014 08:12

Razor wrote:Ripper of a lightning bolt accross the Port Hills when I was running home about an hour ago. Very little moisture though.

and i don't think there is any evidence to suggest a severe winter, its simply guesswork this far out

Every time a coconut - one event and drivel starts about the upcoming winter ... on another forum I saw plenty of "predictions" for a cold winter last year after a cold snap ...

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 04/03/2014 08:21

anyway, back on topic.... Certainly blowing its guts out here in Chch, rain just setting in. Think the thread title should now incorporate severe gales. Could match the lyttelton marina storm

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 04/03/2014 08:24

Manukau heads obs wrote:yes, but its not there in the sea surface temperatures in the eastern pacific at this stage
(the atmoshpere and ocean are out of sync at the moment)
things are still swinging from one to other all the time

They must see something in there crystal ball that makes them want to come out now to pre warn the agriculture industry.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 04/03/2014 08:25

Razor wrote:anyway, back on topic.... Certainly blowing its guts out here in Chch, rain just setting in. Think the thread title should now incorporate severe gales. Could match the lyttelton marina storm

Just starting to rain here as well,winds only moderate though.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Tue 04/03/2014 08:27

Agree with Brian. Note that the BoM's latest ENSO Wrap-Up also states that…

The predictability of El Niño or La Niña conditions for the period extending through and beyond autumn is lower than for forecasts made at other times of the year (known as “the autumn predictability barrier”). Long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.

In other words, I'd take any predictions made before late-winter/spring with pretty much a grain of salt. Predictions made at this time in the past have often turned out to be the reverse later on in the year.

Skywatcher · Unread post by **Skywatcher** » Tue 04/03/2014 08:48

Razor wrote:Could match the lyttelton marina storm

According to an article on Stuff, a house in Cass Bay has had its sunroom windows blown in. I saw a gust of 111km/h on MS Port Hills (i.e. Lyttelton) page earlier.

Source

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Tue 04/03/2014 09:07

Also heard a report of a boat breaking free from there mooring in Akaroa and now on the rocks.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Tue 04/03/2014 12:07

Wild old morning thats for sure, emergency services going 14 to the dozen

I feel like I'm in Wellington today!

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Southerly gales and heavy rain, March 3rd to 6th

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Re: Southerly gales and rain, March 3rd to 6th