Southerly gales and heavy rain, March 3rd to 6th
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- CWUweather
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Re: Wet southerly
That's what worries me... if we are getting June/July conditions in early march, what can we expect in June/July.....NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:The skies today have been delivering weather that you would expect in June or July
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Re: Wet southerly
Ripper of a lightning bolt accross the Port Hills when I was running home about an hour ago. Very little moisture though.
and i don't think there is any evidence to suggest a severe winter, its simply guesswork this far out
and i don't think there is any evidence to suggest a severe winter, its simply guesswork this far out
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- Richard
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Re: Wet southerly
I thought only Metservice can issue weather warnings I see CWU are issuing there own warnings, poor information from the wrong people can cause confusion especially given the high exposure through Facebook.
Don't get me wrong I love what they have done and check in on them through out the day but warnings should be left to the pros.
Don't get me wrong I love what they have done and check in on them through out the day but warnings should be left to the pros.
- CWUweather
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Re: Wet southerly
Hello. The warnings we issue are generally the same as what Metservice say anyway.... many of our followers often say they never look at Metservice anymore... so in a way, we are passing on that information.melja wrote:I thought only Metservice can issue weather warnings I see CWU are issuing there own warnings, poor information from the wrong people can cause confusion especially given the high exposure through Facebook.
Don't get me wrong I love what they have done and check in on them through out the day but warnings should be left to the pros.
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Re: Wet southerly
re the what will the winter be like....
depends on sea surface temperatures..to a degree....at the moment they are normal in the tasman
and that wont change in a hurry..will take a run of colder than normal months to change that....
summer returns next week by the looks
one thing that was MIA last year was southerly outbreaks...but they have been coming more regurlarly this year...maybe that will continue...?
depends on sea surface temperatures..to a degree....at the moment they are normal in the tasman
and that wont change in a hurry..will take a run of colder than normal months to change that....
summer returns next week by the looks
one thing that was MIA last year was southerly outbreaks...but they have been coming more regurlarly this year...maybe that will continue...?
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Re: Wet southerly
Periods of heavy showers around Akaroa today, with hail at times. Some pretty heavy gale gusts late afternoon for a time. (and more to come tomorrow no doubt)
- CWUweather
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Re: Wet southerly
That's what i think, just has that feel about it. I have no doubt that if this storm was in July, we would be seeing 40c of snow to sea level!Manukau heads obs wrote:re the what will the winter be like....
depends on sea surface temperatures..to a degree....at the moment they are normal in the tasman
and that wont change in a hurry..will take a run of colder than normal months to change that....
summer returns next week by the looks
one thing that was MIA last year was southerly outbreaks...but they have been coming more regurlarly this year...maybe that will continue...?
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Weather enthusiast turned analyst since 1996, now running CWU on Facebook!
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- NZstorm
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Re: Wet southerly
We will go into El Nino by winter. I think that favours more of a strong SW pattern, perhaps drier in the east.
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Re: Wet southerly
The thing you are missing is the fact you don't get the huge moisture that you have at this time of year with the warm ocean, the colder the air the dryer the air and most high rain events that happen in winter are with warm air not cold so saying if this was in winter we would have 40cm snow just doesn't add up
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Re: Wet southerly
Agree wholeheartedly. And if that comment about el nino is right then it could be a very poor snow year (ie none) like some I recall back in the 90's ie those years without a single flake in ChChmelja wrote:The thing you are missing is the fact you don't get the huge moisture that you have at this time of year with the warm ocean, the colder the air the dryer the air and most high rain events that happen in winter are with warm air not cold so saying if this was in winter we would have 40cm snow just doesn't add up
The point being, its just too hard to predict this far out- it will be what it will be!
And I don't mind CWU passing on the warnings in their own format...they do seem careful but unfortunately many of the facebook crowd never read the important subtexts in the details. Like much of the social media set they take sensationalist interpretations ....
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- Michael
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Re: Wet southerly
its like the early 2000s the wind never letup except a day once a fortnight or so.
- bpo
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Re: Wet southerly
CWUweather wrote:f we are getting June/July conditions in early march, what can we expect in June/July...
Who got June/July conditions?
Down here, we got cooler temperatures, high winds and heavy rain... Conditions I've yet to experience in June/July.
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Re: Wet southerly
I am not sold on the El Nino developing this year at this stage...
next year I would bet on it more
next year I would bet on it more
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Re: Wet southerly
BOM are predicting a developing El Nino the winter http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
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Re: Wet southerly
yes, but its not there in the sea surface temperatures in the eastern pacific at this stage
(the atmoshpere and ocean are out of sync at the moment)
things are still swinging from one to other all the time
(the atmoshpere and ocean are out of sync at the moment)
things are still swinging from one to other all the time
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Re: Wet southerly
Every time a coconut - one event and drivel starts about the upcoming winter ... on another forum I saw plenty of "predictions" for a cold winter last year after a cold snap ...Razor wrote:Ripper of a lightning bolt accross the Port Hills when I was running home about an hour ago. Very little moisture though.
and i don't think there is any evidence to suggest a severe winter, its simply guesswork this far out
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Re: Wet southerly
anyway, back on topic.... Certainly blowing its guts out here in Chch, rain just setting in. Think the thread title should now incorporate severe gales. Could match the lyttelton marina storm
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- Richard
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Re: Wet southerly
They must see something in there crystal ball that makes them want to come out now to pre warn the agriculture industry.Manukau heads obs wrote:yes, but its not there in the sea surface temperatures in the eastern pacific at this stage
(the atmoshpere and ocean are out of sync at the moment)
things are still swinging from one to other all the time
- Richard
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Re: Wet southerly
Just starting to rain here as well,winds only moderate though.Razor wrote:anyway, back on topic.... Certainly blowing its guts out here in Chch, rain just setting in. Think the thread title should now incorporate severe gales. Could match the lyttelton marina storm
- Nev
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Re: Wet southerly
Agree with Brian. Note that the BoM's latest ENSO Wrap-Up also states that…
In other words, I'd take any predictions made before late-winter/spring with pretty much a grain of salt. Predictions made at this time in the past have often turned out to be the reverse later on in the year.The predictability of El Niño or La Niña conditions for the period extending through and beyond autumn is lower than for forecasts made at other times of the year (known as “the autumn predictability barrier”). Long-range model outlooks should be used cautiously at this time.
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Re: Wet southerly
According to an article on Stuff, a house in Cass Bay has had its sunroom windows blown in. I saw a gust of 111km/h on MS Port Hills (i.e. Lyttelton) page earlier.Razor wrote:Could match the lyttelton marina storm
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- 03Stormchaser
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Re: Wet southerly
Also heard a report of a boat breaking free from there mooring in Akaroa and now on the rocks.
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Re: Southerly gales and rain, March 3rd to 6th
Wild old morning thats for sure, emergency services going 14 to the dozen
I feel like I'm in Wellington today!
I feel like I'm in Wellington today!
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