Ex-TC Lusi affecting NZ - Mar 14-17

[melja]

Cant say I have ever seen a model run like this over Canterbury before the bloody thing is smack bang on top of us.
I only hope the CCC has learnt something from past events bad sadly im not sure on that one.

I'm not quite sure what you want the council to do....stop the rain falling on the city and into the earthquake damaged pipes that gerry brownlee and the insureres aren't helping get fixed?

It just backs up that the red Zones needed to happen, and perhaps there are wider areas that should have/ could also be red zoned.
fAnyway, back on topic- it this is SE or E hopefully we will see that traditional 'rain shadow' effect from the peninsula and only have light rain in town

Um more sand bags and quicker oh and why not evacuate people before there is stuff floating round there houses while there sleeping unaware.
Its about being proactive not the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff stuff that is of little real help.
Look at what we see time and time again overseas when places flood, hundreds and hundreds of sand bags and hundreds of people helping.

[Manukau heads obs]

ECMWF showing a more westward track down past the NI
and a longer NE fetch
BOM is similar
that will mean more rain into places that need it in the NI

You can see an upper level rotation/trough just to the east of Norfolf island in the water vapour sat image animation
that is what is going to help it maintain intensity as it goes through extra tropical transition
also the baroclinic leaf is starting to form already...and that is going to spread right down and over the NI

[jamie]

MPI minister Nathan Guy is looking at the dry conditions tomorrow morning in the north waikato. Perhaps a drought declaration is near? Anyway this rain is well over due and hopefully changes the overall pattern.

How much do you think you will get your way Brian. Or too early to tell?

[Manukau heads obs]

Really need 50mm from this system to be worthwhile
I would not like to bet on it

[David]

I was thinking around 70mm for Auckland. Well I hope so anyway!

[Razor]

Um more sand bags and quicker oh and why not evacuate people before there is stuff floating round there houses while there sleeping unaware.
Its about being proactive not the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff stuff that is of little real help.
Look at what we see time and time again overseas when places flood, hundreds and hundreds of sand bags and hundreds of people helping.

That's just a tad unfair. Council staff WERE doorknocking St Albans and Marehau (and other areas) residents Tuesday afternoon and set up a welfare centre as things turned worse on the Tuesday, with publicity on social and mainstream media. I'm not sure sandbags were going to help these people

[TonyT]

I had to chuckle this afternoon, on ZB news the newsreader says in a serious voice "and the weather outlook for this weekend is gloomy in the North Island as a former tropical cyclone is expected". Gloomy? Eh? Of all the words you could pick to describe the weather associated with an ex-tropical cyclone and you choose "gloomy".

[CWUweather]

Um more sand bags and quicker oh and why not evacuate people before there is stuff floating round there houses while there sleeping unaware.
Its about being proactive not the ambulance at the bottom of the cliff stuff that is of little real help.
Look at what we see time and time again overseas when places flood, hundreds and hundreds of sand bags and hundreds of people helping.

That's just a tad unfair. Council staff WERE doorknocking St Albans and Marehau (and other areas) residents Tuesday afternoon and set up a welfare centre as things turned worse on the Tuesday, with publicity on social and mainstream media. I'm not sure sandbags were going to help these people

Not wanting to enter into any sort of conflict, but I would have to agree with Razor. Severe flooding (like last week) is not something we see often in Christchurch, it just so happens that we now have the possibility of it happening twice in 2 weeks. I think CCC handled it very well considering it is not something they deal with too often. And if setting up facebook pages to get a clean up party organised, and having strangers offer help to people isn't enough, I dont know what is.
Also, people were given sandbags, the issue is, the water level was a foot over top of them... We cant win against mother nature, but we can sure as hell fight!

[NZstorm]

Really need 50mm from this system to be worthwhile
I would not like to bet on it

A trend in the models is for this low to pass west of the North Island with the heaviest rain to our west. But have to see.
Its a guessing game still.

[Manukau heads obs]

the rain bands often split ..west/east...and a track just to the west of the NI will mean the eastern side rain band , crossing the NI

[Richard]

Still looking like about that 50mm mark for around the Canterbury area which would a ideal amount for the dry parts but not too much for CHCH

[treetop]

Certainly NW nelson and cantebury looking to take a hit now with rain. At least the tidal surge/wind may be less now up north.The Hauraki Gulf will get pretty rough no doubt as the NE funnels through.

[David]

Have to hope this morning's GFS is wrong, showing only 35mm over Auckland and even less over Waikato & Central North Island.

[Richard]

Thats a bugger for those areas,you really need at least 40mm to break a drought

[spwill]

Hard to make rainfall predictions at the moment but the model trend has been for less rain around here, see how the low tracks in the next few model runs. If the low does have a more westward track there will be more sheltering for Canterbury so that would be good news for people in the east of Christchurch

[einzack]

Latest few runs showing we may take more of a hit with it tracking more to the west, but it's hard to tell as the mountains play a big role depending on it's exact path.
We're rushing at work to get one of our work areas completed by Saturday night so if it does rain a lot it will have minimal impact on us.
But I think for the region the rain will be very welcome. It has been dry summer, with less rain than at this stage last year (YTD 2014: 196.9mm compared to YTD 2013: 222.6mm), but last year was a lot warmer so felt drier.
But my garden and lawns will certainly welcome it.

[Manukau heads obs]

generally it will move towards the most southern part of the curved outlflow cloud area
(i.e the area with the most energy, and dropping pressure)
and that is currently just north of Auckland

[Nev]

For posterity, here's today's MS Watch update (not a bad summary methinks )…

MetService - Severe Weather Watch

Valid to 10:03am Friday 14 Mar 2014

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, AUCKLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, WAIKATO, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, GISBORNE, TAUMARUNUI, TAUPO, TAIHAPE

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 1003hrs 13-Mar-2014

CYCLONE LUSI EXPECTED TO BRING SEVERE WEATHER TO MANY REGIONS DURING THE WEEKEND

Cyclone Lusi is forecast to move out of the tropics on Friday, and is expected to track just west of the North Island on Saturday, before crossing the South Island late Sunday.

Rain and easterly gales are expected to spread onto northern New Zealand from later on Friday, and southwards across the remainder of the North Island on Saturday, then to the upper and eastern South Island later on Saturday and Sunday.

This Watch is for the likelihood of significant heavy rain in Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, and for Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne on Saturday.

Easterly gales are also expected in these areas, and are also forecast to spread to Waikato (especially near the Kaimai Range) and the Central Plateau. This Watch also covers the likelihood of these becoming severe.

For the remainder of the North Island and upper/eastern South Island, expect a period of heavy rain during the weekend, especially in regions exposed to the east and northeast. Easterly gales are likely in many places, and the risk of these becoming severe is highest in the lee of ranges, such as the Tararuas, Richmond Range, and the Tasman Mountains. Although severe weather is likely, at this stage there is still uncertainty regarding the track of the low and exact areas that will be affected.

This will be a significant adverse weather event, affecting large parts of northern and central New Zealand. People are strongly advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts, warnings and wathes.

This Watch will be reviewed by 10 am Friday 14 March

[03Stormchaser]

Metservice have been on the ball with this event. Mind you if for what ever reason it turns into a fizzer, people will think they were only scaremongering. The pubic are a harsh lot lol!

[melja]

Getting less and lass with each run for Chch, last one was 36mm.
20-30mm I think would be ok but no more.

[NZstorm]

18Z gfs rainfall pattern for this event, for what its worth.

[Razor]

Good news if this is a fizzer. Looks increasingly promising that thats the case for ChCh anyway, thank heavens. Hope that trend enhances

[David]

Metservice's latest update shows they still believe Lusi will deliver significant rainfalls from Auckland north. They must think GFS is downplaying this event...

Issued: 2:30pm Thursday 13 Mar 2014
Valid from Saturday 15 March 2014 to Tuesday 18 March 2014

Cyclone Lusi is expected to lie just west of Northland by midnight Saturday and should then track south to cross the South Island on Sunday. This is likely to be a significant severe weather event, and many regions could be impacted.

A period of heavy rain is expected for most North Island places and the upper South Island during the weekend, especially in places exposed to the east and northeast.

A Watch is currently in force for Northland, Auckland and the Coromandel Peninsula for heavy rain. Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne are now also included in the Watch for heavy rain on Saturday and into Sunday. The Watch also covers the possibility of severe easterly gales in these areas, as well as Waikato and the Central Plateau.

There is also a moderate confidence of warning amounts of heavy rain in Hawkes Bay on Saturday and into Sunday, and then Nelson, Marlborough and Canterbury on Sunday. For Buller and northern Westland, there is a low confidence of heavy rain reaching warning criteria later Sunday and early Monday.

East or northeast gales are expected over the North Island and upper South Island, and there is a moderate confidence of these becoming severe in other parts of the North Island west of the main ranges from Waitomo southwards, and also in the northwest of the South Island. As the low moves across the South Island, a period of northwest gales is likely over central New Zealand and there is also the potential for these to become severe, especially about Wellington and Wairarapa.

Conditions should improve in most places on Monday as the remains of Lusi move away. However, another front should move onto the lower South Island late Monday or Tuesday, with rain developing in Fiordland and southern Westland. There is a low confidence of warning amounts of heavy rain with this front.

severe-weather-outlook-13Mar2014.png

[Manukau heads obs]

it sure looks great at the moment on the sat image
and at 960hpa, 80 knot mean winds, its a good strength TC

will be interesting to see if it unravels fast or slowly (the latter will mean it will stay stronger for longer)

its strange how GFS was all go initially and now has eased back a bit, when the case might turn out that its worse that what GFS shows currently
time will tell

summers day here again...25C

[spwill]

No doubt heavy rain is on the way for those locations in the north that usually catch it in these situations, those areas exposed to the east near or on hill country.