NZ Weather Forum

Ex TC looks to be in the models from next weekend and looks a good one too, my only hope is its not going to slip down the east coast and park up out there giving Canterbury more rain. looks like it may tho.

melja wrote:Ex TC looks to be in the models from next weekend and looks a good one too, my only hope is its not going to slip down the east coast and park up out there giving Canterbury more rain. looks like it may tho.

00Z GFS is nuts! It shows a major 970 hPa subtropical low affecting the North Island.
Of course it will change, but hopefully not so much so that we don't get any rain...

Wow! That's decent. I like the fact that this run has it further west. I want to start seeing it having runs where it's running down the west coast.

Major event on the cards for the top two-thirds of the country, another 10-20mm would be great followup rain, anymore then 40-50mm could be very bad for the flood-affected areas...

Yes, this sub-tropical low coming down for next Sunday-Monday does look interesting, it is a long way out but it has the potential to cause issues if it make it this far south... the BoM models in particular show it well.

There is some agreement now between GFS and ECMWF for a tropical low to affect NZ next weekend however we are still a week out.

Early days, but I see the MetVuw site is showing an intense tropical cyclone/remnants moving over the North Island next weekend

970 hPa - wow that's impressive.
What is the lowest pressure recorded in NZ?

einzack wrote:970 hPa - wow that's impressive.
What is the lowest pressure recorded in NZ?

I see there was a recording of 954mb on Taiaroa heads, 1/6 1939

The latest VUW forecast chart for March 15 looks like a reminder to check your insurance policy. Will it come to pass, from this far out? This could well be up there with the 31/7/2008 winter storm which gave 150km/h SE gusts over the lower NI.

For the records here's the lastest GFS run (00Z) showing the forecast at 10pm Fri 14th. Central pressure 976 hPa.

It has the potential to be really nasty. Depends on how much it weakens on its way down! NI is in the firing line no doubt! Could go far enough south to affect Canterbury again which is in no way needed at the moment.... went for a drive today and some eastern suburb streets are still under half a foot of water!
Anyway, Kaikoura coast is in the firing line too potentially..

Looks like I'm gonna get a drive-by ?!

CWUweather wrote: Could go far enough south to affect Canterbury again which is in no way needed at the moment..

Just remember that about half of Canterbury didn't get a lot of rain in that last event,northern Canterbury could certainly do more rain and hopefully its from this system this coming weekend.

Holy cow! The latest run on the BoM models show a significant impact on the upper North Island, before ripping shreds out of the eastern South Island!.... seems to he holding true!

Looks interesting

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Looks interesting

If those models hold true (which they probably won't....) it would be 100mm in 24 hours in Chirstchurch?!

CCC might need to arange some more sand bags.

Some of the model runs suggesting a pass just off the west coast of Northland. Latest GFS shows it coming down from the NNE right over the top of Auckland at 974 hPa.

I hope metservice have their northland radar being tested. This could provide some great images that they then pass onto us.

GFS rainfall accumulation to midnight Sunday 16th. ( 7day). Early days to be looking at rainfall models though. But a drenching certainly looking more likely with each model run!

Drat, I have an AGM in Matamata Sunday next week. Have to attend it as I'm on the committee. Hopefully I won't miss anything major if it comes off.

Wow, From http://www.surf-forecast.com/weather_ma ... type=htsgw

I was going to head up to Waipu Cove on Friday, might have to put those plans on hold. See how the models look next couple of days, currently there is good model agreement for this Tropical Low.

Looks at this stage as if its wind AND rain that will be of concern. Usually only get one of the two from these types of lows.

Jeez i hope the rainfall forecast holds though. Some guys will be saying no that's too much but its just the perfect amount for here that is being forecast at this current stage.