Ex-TC Lusi affecting NZ - Mar 14-17

[Manukau heads obs]

I remember a similar expectant, still feeling before Fergus in '96.

Yes, I was just thinking it reminds me alot of that cyclone too, todays sky, etc

[Orion]

It has seemed to me that the sky has had a yellowish or brownish cast as I've viewed it on Auckland webcams, is that the case?
The sea at Orewa has seemed "slack" and "sulky" although I see the waves are roughening up a bit now.

[Richard]

For us cantabs its hard to say what's going to happen,the rainfall accumulation rates for about the district are bugger all,from 7mm in Hanmer to 20mm in Ashburton yet MS have a moderate risk of significant rain expected,...so ....

[Manukau heads obs]

some nice charts here
http://forecast.predictwind.com/map/18780/GFS/107

[Michael]

Still light easterlies here,if this map was reversed with the same spacing of isobars and an anticyclone over us and equivalent low south,the SW would be howling its hooters off.

[Manukau heads obs]

clouds are thickening up fast just to the north of me now

[littleheaven]

It has seemed to me that the sky has had a yellowish or brownish cast as I've viewed it on Auckland webcams, is that the case?

Probably an air quality issue, but certainly earlier today it was a bit beige out there. The high cloud was thin enough to let some yellowish light through, but now it's moody grey. Heading to the pub by Takapuna Beach now so I will have a look at the sea while I'm there.

[treetop]

Having had SW/Winds over the last month alot of the warm water has moved NE of NZ which will be accelerating Luci demise.The next cyclone looks like passing E of NZ later next week

[Manukau heads obs]

well, great looking cloud bands developing and moving south

much better looking system than past ex cyclones (that have been disapointing for rain )
I think we could go over 50mm here, great for the dry farms!

[Happy Feet]

I don't have a weather station to give any measurements but thought I'd post, as there's been no one else reporting from the North and I guess we are first in the firing line. There's been light rain and wind here near Kaikohe since about 4pm. Nothing unusual yet, but the rain is starting to get heavier and a stronger blustery easterly wind is getting up. Its very misty.
Metservice is not showing a lot of rain for Kaikohe on the 48 hour rural forecast - nothing like the 100mm in the severe weather warning for Northland, but we have tied everything down and moved horses out of the flood zone, just to be cautious. The river that runs through our farm is very low after the dry summer and it will take some persistent heavy rainfall to reach flood levels.

[Manukau heads obs]

Hi
do keep us informed

[Orion]

Greetings, Happy Feet - it will be interesting to get your reports.
My Silverdale Spy reports All Quiet at present.

[David]

Hardly any wind here yet - had a gust of 36 km/h around 5pm but now back to a very gentle SSE breeze.

[iomkiwi]

Good to see another voice from up here

Fire brigades are already getting callouts for trees/branches down although wind and rain are nothing unusual yet.

I also see they have brought in another five fire appliances to our local station as backup, we usually have 3 permanently stationed here

[harleyb]

The easterly has freshened up quite suddenly this evening here in Ashhurst (Manawatu). We're prone to strong downslope winds off the southern Ruahines here so given that the wind isn't expected to peak for another 30 hours or so, tomorrow could get interesting.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, it looks as though it is "filling in" as it brushes up against the departing anticyclone, in it's track south.
Pobably a lot of drizzly showers for Christchurch, now for Sunday.
Monday, should see a fine and warm day with NW from the next front from the west.

[Manukau heads obs]

gusting to 50 kts at Cape Reinga already
and 45 kts in exposed eastern northland locations

[jamie]

Some strong winds up north already. I wonder if the warning is under estimating it. The centre is still a long way away

[Manukau heads obs]

actually M/S do have an updated marine forecast out
now gusts to 60kts
http://metservice.com/marine/recreation ... e/auckland

[jamie]

Oh wow I didn't see that. That makes better sense

[Manukau heads obs]

to me its going to track further east than what the models were indicating...hence a peg up in the windspeeds....

[jamie]

Or is it expanding? Ie it's wind field isn't weakening but rather expanind giving the impression it's getting closer.

[CWUweather]

I do get the feeling it may be tracking further east than it has been showing for the past two days. If that is the case.... watch out eastern South Island!

[Happy Feet]

Still nothing too dramatic here - light rain and quite a strong blustery wind at present. We'll see what the night brings.

[CWUweather]

Still nothing too dramatic here - light rain and quite a strong blustery wind at present. We'll see what the night brings.

Give it time. The early hours of tomorrow morning (after 1am) look nasty up where you are. Hang tight!