NZ Weather Forum

Almost 20mm rain here now Hopefully we can double that

Now looking increasingly likely that Canterbury is going to get hit hard! 100mm looks likely for Kaikoura, 60mm for Christchurch, possibly the same for parts of South Canterbury

David wrote:Almost 20mm rain here now Hopefully we can double that

Lucky you!!!!!!

80mm since the early hours of today at the Pinnacles on the Coromadel Peninsula.

Radar doesn't show much but those hills exposed to the east like the Coromadel will really jump up in terms of rainfall now.

We are probably too sheltered here sadly....but we have managed 1.6mm. Wind is still slowly increasing.

21mm here, the rain boosted by low topped convection. But rain lighter now than it was.

yes, we getting that here now, 10mm so far
hopefully more rain bands can develop and move down in the NE flow

Light rain and gusty in Tauranga . Up to 80 km/hr

CWUweather wrote:Now looking increasingly likely that Canterbury is going to get hit hard!

Or at least you're certainly praying it will be.

bpo wrote:

CWUweather wrote:Now looking increasingly likely that Canterbury is going to get hit hard!

Or at least you're certainly praying it will be.

Why would I pray that on anyone. We have been through enough already. There is nothing I would want more than for it to fizzle out and we get next to nothing. All I am saying is I don't think that is going to happen!

16.5 mm so far here in Glenfield. Alternating calm and blustery conditions. There's already some tree debris on the roads and my sister said several of her potted plants blew over in the night. The house is creaking when it gusts up a bit. I wouldn't like to see it a lot worse. Thankfully it should turn more northerly as the day goes on and then the hill will shelter us more.

Does anyone think we will achieve "bombogenisis"? It was 1015.5 at midnight last night, but that means it would need to drop to 991.5 by midnight tonight.

littleheaven wrote: Does anyone think we will achieve "bombogenisis"? It was 1015.5 at midnight last night, but that means it would need to drop to 991.5 by midnight tonight.

Weather bomb is when a low pressure system drops by 24 hPa in 24 hours, not when the pressure at a given location drops by the same amount. This low is filling in rather than deepening.

Blustery winds now, but nothing exceptional. Conditions look about to peak.

Video here of Paihia at high tide this morning http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/9830946 ... orthern-NZ

David wrote:Weather bomb is when a low pressure system drops by 24 hPa in 24 hours, not when the pressure at a given location drops by the same amount. This low is filling in rather than deepening.

Thanks for the clarification, David.

Just got hit by a frighteningly strong gust in Glenfield that shook the windows and scared my 7-year old away from his Minecraft game. Definitely intensifying out there. There's a lot of noise coming from the bush on the hill behind the house.

Visible light image from MTSAT at 11:32.

Hmmm we had our aerial tightened and straightened on Tuesday, I suspect the anemometer may have been rotated towards the south a bit. My station is indicating a direction of 110°, it should be reading 90°.

Is it possible with the position of the low and the current timing of the jet stream, that instead of deepening the clouds it is shearing over any strong convection due to strong low and upper level winds over the North Island ( if that makes sense ? ).
It just seems less sporadic than it should be at the moment, but as it passes south into the Tasman it will ramp up with the inflow of warmer air feeding from the NSW and QLD coasts in the upper levels, probably making no sense just trying to make sense of Lusi's developments.
The latest runs suggest the low will pass directly over Canterbury tomorrow afternoon, with tomorrow evening possibly some isolated pockets of very heavy rain especially inland along the foothills.
Either way between 40-60mm still poses a few problems to the region given already sodden soils and bad drainage due to new land forms.
I spent a good part of yesterday at work filling sand bags to go out for tomorrows rain, theres been about 22,000 done so far and we did around 3,000 which was a very long day but well worth it.
Anybody affected on here or has families in areas which are prone to flooding now, you can find information on where to collect the bags here.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/y ... ones-blast

Lusi's centre is turning more SW now and is roughly about 80 km NW of Cape Reinga according to MS data. Winds in the Gulf have also gone from ESE to ENE and are generally a little less than earlier this morn, although Tiritiri is still currently recording gusts to 65 kts (120 km/h). Just 15mm here so far.

Wind has eased off up here, but the rain has set in again after being very light for the last few hours.

Baro has also started dropping a bit quicker now too after leveling out for a couple of hours - 998.2 dropping at 0.8/hr

and just as I type this I get another 60 km/h gust

It cleared up a little around midday, the wind dropped and rain was light. But now its been raining really heavily for about an hour and winds are quite strong and gusting again.
So far, we are lucky as we are getting a good soak but no sign of flooding.

Storm Struck wrote:Is it possible with the position of the low and the current timing of the jet stream, that instead of deepening the clouds it is shearing over any strong convection due to strong low and upper level winds over the North Island ( if that makes sense ? ).
It just seems less sporadic than it should be at the moment, but as it passes south into the Tasman it will ramp up with the inflow of warmer air feeding from the NSW and QLD coasts in the upper levels, probably making no sense just trying to make sense of Lusi's developments.

The heavy rain from tropical systems moving south into temperate zones is generated by the warm front process. That's warm air lifting over cooler air. The bigger the thermal contrast generally the better the lift/heavier rain.

Drizzly here with 21C, dp 20C.

Not a drop of rain in Wellington yet..

And no wind..

Actually getting some little patches of sun breaking through in Glenfield. The wind is still pretty vigorous, but has swung around enough that the neighbour is now sheltering my house.

Sun threatening here too, and 25mm so far from Lusi. But scenes of devastation here earlier today:

I hope you can rebuild, Brassnz!

Nothing worse than typical SW squalls and speed not maintained.