The infomercialisation of meteorology

[Manukau heads obs]

yes, where is the exagerations you are claiming?
quote

and who exaggerate everything: A drop of rain is sure to become the kind of flood not seen since Noah

surely that is an exageration of an exageration?

[melja]

Was one comment about how its very rear to get heavy rain in the mountains with a high freezing level (3000m) so this was going to cause all sorts of flooding problems in low land rivers- what total crap! its very common to get this and happens every time a Large NW system comes our way.
Oh and only to areas even have this height and well south so would have little effect on Canterbury.

[Manukau heads obs]

that would have been if the rain bands associated with the low center crossed over the Buller area like the models predicted, when instead it crossed over the Golden Bay/Nelson /Malborough area
the M/S blog has good info on the rain totals recorded
some good totals on the ranges in both islands

[bpo]

There's always a lot of cherry-picking going on, with isolated and abnormal data points given as being accurately representative of the whole set when they're anything but.

These outfits select only the things they think can be manipulated into depicting a worst-case (ie most-sensational and exciting) scenario, and when it inevitably fizzles -- and it always does -- more data cherry-picking is employed in a desperate CYA exercise.

The NZ Herald ran a series of front page artciles of the "Z0MG!!! Da endz ofz da worldz is nigh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111" variety. As every prediction fell flat on its face, the paper came up with new ones: "So okay, that predicted weather Armageddon didn't happen last night, but just you wait until the one that's coming this afternoon!"

Don't you guys miss the dry and sobre "Bream Head to Cape Colville..." days of real meteorology? Maybe I'm just getting old.

[Manukau heads obs]

dont know what you are on about , to be honest
who said the end of the world was coming?

as has been pointed out, there was good rain totals on the ranges (you get that with saturated air masses and gales)

there was 2 problems
the warm frontal rain, where the SE wind undercuts the upper level outflow, in the SW quadrant, and gives rise to widespread rain, was shunted SW ahead of the low, into the tasman, due to the very strong ridging to the east of NZ
this was under predicted by the models
the second problem was that normally a frontal boundary rain band develops to the SW of the low center
but for this TC that was rather weak, probably due to not enough temperature differences..the high had alot of warm air with it...would have been different if it was a high that had just replaced a cold southerly outbreak
also there was not alot of convergence happening between the wind flowing around the top of the high and the wind flowing around the low...I suspect this was under predicted by the models too

this is what ex TC's are like....its hard to know how its all going to pan out once it shears off and unravels
thats what makes them intriguing for forrecasters and hard to predict exaclty what will happen

TC Fergus and Drena were similar...the coromandel had much more rain than auckland did and the easterly wind eventually got up in auckland area but did not last very long

[bpo]

Apologist claptrap.

You can come up with all the excuses you like, but it doesn't alter the fact that the media and self-proclaimed weather experts went hell-for-leather to promote "Lusi" as a full-blown hurricane. The populace was gleefully subjected to dire warnings about what was in reality just another patch of relatively unpleasant weather of a kind that occurs most years.

All just part of the general dumbing-down of pretty much everything.

[CWUweather]

RANT STARTS
I don't quite understand what people are going on about. At CWU in particular pride ourselves on saying it how we see it, and if some people don't like that and take that to mean that we are "creating hype, and promoting Lusi," well that is fine.
Also, we have been targeted on here recently for not having the right to issue warnings on the page etc. We are the first ones to admit that MetService are the government forecasters and are the only ones who can issue official warnings. Who says our warnings are official? Our followers can choose to take it or leave it when we issue them, we get a lot of praise for doing what we do. We are not trying to scaremonger, and we not trying to get ourselves attention, we are simply telling it how we see it.
RANT ENDS
On another note, I don't mind the whole use of metaphors when it comes to forecasting on TV, but it can become a bit tedious when they do it all the time. Best thing to do is keep it real and tell it how they see it! Since when does a a EX-TC look like and octopus playing football! LOL

[03Stormchaser]

Was one comment about how its very rear to get heavy rain in the mountains with a high freezing level (3000m) so this was going to cause all sorts of flooding problems in low land rivers- what total crap! its very common to get this and happens every time a Large NW system comes our way.

I was pretty amazed with this message being posted at the time. Also calls of the Metservice coming to the part, after CWU issued warnings first. I think this should only be done by Metservice regardless of the thousands of followers one may have. Its irresposible

[CWUweather]

Was one comment about how its very rear to get heavy rain in the mountains with a high freezing level (3000m) so this was going to cause all sorts of flooding problems in low land rivers- what total crap! its very common to get this and happens every time a Large NW system comes our way.

I was pretty amazed with this message being posted at the time. Also calls of the Metservice coming to the part, after CWU issued warnings first. I think this should only be done by Metservice regardless of the thousands of followers one may have. Its irresposible

Exactly, MetService are our government forecasters and issue the official warnings that the media use. What is "irresponsible" about warning 40,000 people of possible flooding for example. We had an outstanding amount of people the other day saying they would much rather be warned than have no warning at all.

[03Stormchaser]

From MS Blog: http://blog.metservice.com/

A summary of observation for the passage of Lusi

Warnings issued:

We issued Severe Weather Warnings for Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty/Rotorua, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Wellington, Nelson, Marlborough, Buller, South Canterbury and North Otago. The first warning was issued on Friday morning, the first watch for the event was issued on Wednesday morning, and reference to significant weather first appeared in the Severe Weather Outlook on Sunday afternoon even before Lusi was named as a tropical cyclone.

From what I can see, there was no need for anyone else to release there own warnings.

[CWUweather]

From MS Blog: http://blog.metservice.com/

A summary of observation for the passage of Lusi

Warnings issued:

We issued Severe Weather Warnings for Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty/Rotorua, Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa, Wellington, Nelson, Marlborough, Buller, South Canterbury and North Otago. The first warning was issued on Friday morning, the first watch for the event was issued on Wednesday morning, and reference to significant weather first appeared in the Severe Weather Outlook on Sunday afternoon even before Lusi was named as a tropical cyclone.

From what I can see, there was no need for anyone else to release there own warnings.

Many of our followers don't even look at MetService... better safe than sorry mate! Warning people of severe weather can be vital!

[Manukau heads obs]

so is this whole thread about warnings for CHCH/ canterbury flooding?
would have been better if that was made clear from the start
Oh I see said the blind man

[bpo]

so is this whole thread about warnings for CHCH/ canterbury flooding?
would have been better if that was made clear from the start
Oh I see said the blind man

Nope.

Those ridiculous "warnings" (ie scaremongering) about how "Christchurch is gonna get hammered!!!!!!!!!" were just one aspect of the circus of hype. The NZ Herald and its pet weather business are another.

But the fact remains they aren't alone in practising and selling voodoo weatherology as if it is in any way meaningful.

[melja]

" BRACE FOR THE WRATH OF LUSI!" was one of your headlines CWU now if that isn't hype then what is and come to think of it I herd you on Radio NZ and I think one comment was that you love the" HYPE" around big weather events.

Now don't get me wrong I love what you do and I love that's its for us here in Canterbury but im not sure I would hear Tony,metservice,Niwa or weatherwatch to a lesser extent with headlines like that. You got caught out the other month also with very bold predictions of 40C and the hype that went with that and lets not forget I think your page was born around the dooms day predictions of the snow storms to end all snow storms last winter.

[cantygal]

I hear you as well Meija but perhaps cos these guys are starting out they don't have the experience that others have. I'm sure they'll learn fairly smartly but perhaps let's not judge too harshly as we all had to begin somewhere.

[03Stormchaser]

I hear you as well Meija but perhaps cos these guys are starting out they don't have the experience that others have. I'm sure they'll learn fairly smartly but perhaps let's not judge too harshly as we all had to begin somewhere.

What CWU do day too day is good, they have found a niche that metservice and I'm sure others wish they could have capitalized on. Social media is a powerful tool just got to use it right, that's all.

[bpo]

It's all down to motive.

[Manukau heads obs]

and what is your motive?

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Possibly a locomotive?

[Razor]

As a Christchurch resident I was horrified by the mainstream media (ie Fairfax and The Press) carrying hysterical headlines as if the world was about to end. It was clear by Friday when the system was tracking further west that Christchurch was not going to have a repeat of the previous week, but despite this the CCC had to waste a day with thousands of phonecalls- and god only knows how many ratepayers dollars were spent on this overreaction.

YES, preparation and forewarning was required, but there was a complete lack of balance at the end of the day, and social media was almost wholly to blame for feeding the frenzy in this town. Those who run social media weather forums should tread very carefully and they carry a heavy responsibility to refer to official forecasts by qualified scientists, and avoid flowery or inflammatory headlines.

Warnings in social media must only be backed with appropriately trained and qualified sources ie links to Metservice releases, etc

If not, then they are in the same space as a certain nameless soothsayer was when predicting earthquakes a couple of years back, and invoking unneeded fear



The story of the boy who cried wolf is extremely relevant here

END RANT

[bpo]

and what is your motive?

I'm not in it for the money. You know, like those in the weather business who'll do and say anything if it will earn them an extra buck. And I'm not in it for the friends or the followers; the people who are will also make outlandish claims if it will gain them some much-craved attention.

I guess I'm in it for the facts, and only the facts. To me, real meteorology is a science, and it's all it can and should be.

What a shame it's being hijacked by money-hungry egomaniacs.

[bpo]

As a Christchurch resident I was horrified by the mainstream media (ie Fairfax and The Press) carrying hysterical headlines as if the world was about to end. It was clear by Friday when the system was tracking further west that Christchurch was not going to have a repeat of the previous week, but despite this the CCC had to waste a day with thousands of phonecalls- and god only knows how many ratepayers dollars were spent on this overreaction.

YES, preparation and forewarning was required, but there was a complete lack of balance at the end of the day, and social media was almost wholly to blame for feeding the frenzy in this town. Those who run social media weather forums should tread very carefully and they carry a heavy responsibility to refer to official forecasts by qualified scientists, and avoid flowery or inflammatory headlines.

Warnings in social media must only be backed with appropriately trained and qualified sources ie links to Metservice releases, etc

If not, then they are in the same space as a certain nameless soothsayer was when predicting earthquakes a couple of years back, and invoking unneeded fear



The story of the boy who cried wolf is extremely relevant here

END RANT

It's like certain greedy attention-seekers who routinely made ludicrous earthquake predictions. The result was simply more stress for people who'd already been under too much.

How does any of this at all differ from falsely screaming fire in a crowded movie theatre? People go to jail for such things, especially if it leads to actual harm. Why aren't "weather bomb" throwers facing censure, if not prosecution?

The NZ Herald and it's laughable weather business should have been hauled over the coals for the appalling misbehaviour witnessed by all ("Luci," and previous non-event events), as should the various other amateur hour social media-based hucksters.

[Orion]

............

Don't you guys miss the dry and sober "Bream Head to Cape Colville..." days of real meteorology?.........

Yes, bpo, those measured and intelligent-sounding forecasts are exactly what I miss.

Razor, you make some excellent points

My compliments and respect to all members here who make timely and accurate observations and forecasts.
And commiserations to those who are misquoted in media.

[NZstorm]

............

Don't you guys miss the dry and sober "Bream Head to Cape Colville..." days of real meteorology?.........

I don't, I like Weather Watch and Facebook Weather and think its a big advancement on where we were at 15 years ago.

[cantygal]

I second that NZstorm. Growing up after hearing droaning forecasts with little soul and energy almost drew me to drink. Yes there was accuracy but warnings took months to be delivered plus our presentations were laughable on TV and radio I believe.On more than one occasion I fell asleep either listening or watching a report!

I enjoy the new social network aspect and communication is far quicker. There are areas to improve upon but this Nana says keep it up and change with the times. Life isn't an exact science and never will be. Accuracy is great but life doesn't have a blueprint which makes it far more interesting.