Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
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Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
A upper level trough is slow moving over the North Island this weekend. 12Z model runs show an influx of moisture across the North Island Sunday and daytime heating will destabilise the airmass. Hopefully a west coast sea breeze will develop. Waikato looks to have the highest thunderstorm probabilities. Hopefully the moisture verifies!
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- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Thunderstorm risk chart for tomorrow afternoon according to today's gfs. Upper flow is weak so convection will be slow moving.
Darker shading is for higher risk area.
Darker shading is for higher risk area.
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- Nev
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
I see MS have just added a low risk that tomorrow arvo's T-Storms may be severe in the central N.I. ...
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Sunday 23 Mar 2014
Issued at: 8:56pm Saturday 22 Mar 2014
Updated at 8:55pm Saturday
The trough and easterly change in the far north continues across Northland during the afternoon and evening, while an upper level cold pool moves across the central North Island. While the trough and easterlies bring showers from Coromandel Peninsula up to Northland, onshore winds in the west of the North Island and in Bay of Plenty are expected to trigger showers inland from Wanganui and Taihape northwards. Some of these showers are likely to be heavy during the afternoon and early evening, especially in central inland areas. There is a broad low risk of isolated thunderstorms over many of these areas. However, this risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate about the central North Island, as shown on the chart. Any thunderstorms that develop are likely to be slow moving and as a result bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour as well as small hail. There is also a low risk of one or two of these central North Island thunderstorms being SEVERE bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour. Any thunderstorms that eventuate should decay into the evening hours.
Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
I am at pukekohe V8's today (helping out with kids play area (girl guides)
so will be keeping an eye out for thunderstorms
so will be keeping an eye out for thunderstorms
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
some good showers about coromandel this morning , easing away but looking more unstable than yesterday. Things will kick off in West/North Waikato later hopefully
ttttttttttt
- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Thunderstorms looking more probable further south in Waitomo by the looks. But will keep an eye south this afternoon from Auckland. Overnight model runs have cut back a bit on moisture.treetop wrote:some good showers about coromandel this morning , easing away but looking more unstable than yesterday. Things will kick off in West/North Waikato later hopefully
- Nev
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Updated T-Storm Outlook this arvo to include parts of Auckland in the moderate risk area...
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Sunday 23 Mar 2014
Issued at: 3:17pm Sunday 23 Mar 2014
Please note! Chart amended to include a moderate risk for parts of Auckland.
A trough and easterly change in the far north moves across Northland this afternoon and evening, while an upper level cold pool moves across the central North Island.
While the trough and easterlies bring showers from Coromandel Peninsula up to Northland, onshore winds in the west of the North Island and in Bay of Plenty are expected to trigger showers inland from Wanganui and Taihape northwards.
Some of these showers are likely to be heavy during the afternoon and early evening, especially in central inland areas. There is a broad low risk of isolated thunderstorms over many of these areas. However, this risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate from western Auckland to the central North Island and Bay of Plenty, as shown on the chart.
Any thunderstorms that develop are likely to be slow moving, and as a result could bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour as well as small hail. There is also a low risk of one or two of these central North Island thunderstorms being SEVERE bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour. Any thunderstorm activity should decay into the evening hours.
Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.
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- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Some heavy convergence showers over South Auckland way (Pukekohe) otherwise dry for Auckland.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
heavy rain shower at puke, which got heavier as it moved towards Waiuku
10mm recorded there
we missed it at home
10mm recorded there
we missed it at home
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
A good forecast by you NZstorm as usual, some evening thunderstorms over Waitomo.NZstorm wrote:
Thunderstorms looking more probable further south in Waitomo by the looks. But will keep an eye south this afternoon from Auckland. Overnight model runs have cut back a bit on moisture.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
saw a nice dust devil while at the Pukekohe V8's too
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Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Have been heaps of them the past couple weeks. I've seen some huge ones.
Looked like there were some good storms waitomo way yesterday. Anyone chase?
Looked like there were some good storms waitomo way yesterday. Anyone chase?
- tgsnoopy
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Thought about it, but didn't think there was a lot to it. I have to remember that since all those detectors in Au have been added to Blitzortung it seems as if it's less sensitive over here. Only a couple of strikes showing usually equals a beauty storm here. I was watching radar and it certainly was delivering good rates.jamie wrote:Looked like there were some good storms waitomo way yesterday. Anyone chase?
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Some residual Cumulonumbus activity over here atm. Yesterday arvo while going back to Raglan, all the decent CB's were further south in Waitomo. Summer Thunderstorm Season will soon be over, then we will have to wait for active cold fronts.
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- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Good heavy showers but the electrical activity was very weak I think yesterday.
Upper trough is smack over Waikato at 1pm today (500mb-19C) and moving out into BOP at 7pm. Some convection looks likely.
Upper trough is smack over Waikato at 1pm today (500mb-19C) and moving out into BOP at 7pm. Some convection looks likely.
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Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Darn I don't arrive home until midnight tonight.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
I think May is the best month for storms in the Auckland region, still have the moisture hanging around while the cold upper troughs are starting to track further north across the North Island. The central Tasman Sea becomes unstable and we are downwind from that activity.
On the humid side here today, dewpoint 16C, current weather mostly fine 21C.
On the humid side here today, dewpoint 16C, current weather mostly fine 21C.
- Michael
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
may is the messiest month,I reckon,reminds of rotting leaf matter,wet cats and weeds in the gardens.Never got TS but had torrential rain around 1430-1500,the rain started about 12 oclock and remained overcast the whole afternoon though went to the airport,it was so dry there,could see it go across.we have to weed already and the mower will have to come out soon.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Can see showers developing over North Auckland and the Coromandel, thunderstorms showing up BOP Ranges
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Nice cell here, that Metservice has a warning for:
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
nice build up over the Hunua ranges area too
- 03Stormchaser
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Like the Dust Devil there Brian
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
sorry you have to get a sore neck to look at it, LOL
- NZstorm
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
S
The other time you can rely on for a good storm or two in the Auckland vicinity is August/September.
May is climatologically the most active month for tornadoes in NZ, rare as they are.spwill wrote:I think May is the best month for storms in the Auckland region, still have the moisture hanging around while the cold upper troughs are starting to track further north across the North Island. The central Tasman Sea becomes unstable and we are downwind from that activity.
The other time you can rely on for a good storm or two in the Auckland vicinity is August/September.
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Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd
Nice picture, Brian
Can you turn it?
With these pictures you have to be very much on hand with the camera as they usually last for a few seconds.
There have been a few here but I don't bother photo'ing them as by the time you get your camera, they are gone.
Can you turn it?
With these pictures you have to be very much on hand with the camera as they usually last for a few seconds.
There have been a few here but I don't bother photo'ing them as by the time you get your camera, they are gone.
JohnGaul
NZThS
NZThS