Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Archive of NZ Weather & Climate
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.

For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by NZstorm »

A upper level trough is slow moving over the North Island this weekend. 12Z model runs show an influx of moisture across the North Island Sunday and daytime heating will destabilise the airmass. Hopefully a west coast sea breeze will develop. Waikato looks to have the highest thunderstorm probabilities. Hopefully the moisture verifies!
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by NZstorm »

Thunderstorm risk chart for tomorrow afternoon according to today's gfs. Upper flow is weak so convection will be slow moving.
Darker shading is for higher risk area.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6216
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 468 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Nev »

I see MS have just added a low risk that tomorrow arvo's T-Storms may be severe in the central N.I. ...
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 23 Mar 2014

Issued at: 8:56pm Saturday 22 Mar 2014

Updated at 8:55pm Saturday

The trough and easterly change in the far north continues across Northland during the afternoon and evening, while an upper level cold pool moves across the central North Island. While the trough and easterlies bring showers from Coromandel Peninsula up to Northland, onshore winds in the west of the North Island and in Bay of Plenty are expected to trigger showers inland from Wanganui and Taihape northwards. Some of these showers are likely to be heavy during the afternoon and early evening, especially in central inland areas. There is a broad low risk of isolated thunderstorms over many of these areas. However, this risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate about the central North Island, as shown on the chart. Any thunderstorms that develop are likely to be slow moving and as a result bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour as well as small hail. There is also a low risk of one or two of these central North Island thunderstorms being SEVERE bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour. Any thunderstorms that eventuate should decay into the evening hours.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.
MetService T-Storm Outlook Map to midnight Mar 23.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

I am at pukekohe V8's today (helping out with kids play area (girl guides)
so will be keeping an eye out for thunderstorms :)
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
treetop
Posts: 316
Joined: Sun 04/02/2007 20:29
Location: katikati
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 6 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by treetop »

some good showers about coromandel this morning , easing away but looking more unstable than yesterday. Things will kick off in West/North Waikato later hopefully
ttttttttttt
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by NZstorm »

treetop wrote:some good showers about coromandel this morning , easing away but looking more unstable than yesterday. Things will kick off in West/North Waikato later hopefully
Thunderstorms looking more probable further south in Waitomo by the looks. But will keep an eye south this afternoon from Auckland. Overnight model runs have cut back a bit on moisture.
User avatar
Nev
Moderator
Posts: 6216
Joined: Tue 07/03/2006 15:24
Location: Waiheke Island, Hauraki Gulf
Has thanked: 468 times
Been thanked: 1064 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Nev »

Updated T-Storm Outlook this arvo to include parts of Auckland in the moderate risk area...
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 23 Mar 2014
Issued at: 3:17pm Sunday 23 Mar 2014

Please note! Chart amended to include a moderate risk for parts of Auckland.

A trough and easterly change in the far north moves across Northland this afternoon and evening, while an upper level cold pool moves across the central North Island.

While the trough and easterlies bring showers from Coromandel Peninsula up to Northland, onshore winds in the west of the North Island and in Bay of Plenty are expected to trigger showers inland from Wanganui and Taihape northwards.

Some of these showers are likely to be heavy during the afternoon and early evening, especially in central inland areas. There is a broad low risk of isolated thunderstorms over many of these areas. However, this risk of thunderstorms is considered moderate from western Auckland to the central North Island and Bay of Plenty, as shown on the chart.

Any thunderstorms that develop are likely to be slow moving, and as a result could bring localised heavy rain of 10 to 25mm per hour as well as small hail. There is also a low risk of one or two of these central North Island thunderstorms being SEVERE bringing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm per hour. Any thunderstorm activity should decay into the evening hours.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.
MetService T-Storm Outlook Map to midnight Mar 23.png
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by NZstorm »

Some heavy convergence showers over South Auckland way (Pukekohe) otherwise dry for Auckland.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

heavy rain shower at puke, which got heavier as it moved towards Waiuku
10mm recorded there
we missed it at home
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by spwill »

NZstorm wrote:
Thunderstorms looking more probable further south in Waitomo by the looks. But will keep an eye south this afternoon from Auckland. Overnight model runs have cut back a bit on moisture.
A good forecast by you NZstorm as usual, some evening thunderstorms over Waitomo.
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

saw a nice dust devil while at the Pukekohe V8's too
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by jamie »

Have been heaps of them the past couple weeks. I've seen some huge ones.

Looked like there were some good storms waitomo way yesterday. Anyone chase?
User avatar
tgsnoopy
Posts: 3653
Joined: Fri 25/03/2005 21:17
Location: Tauranga, NZ (Curse you COVID-19 :-( )
Has thanked: 816 times
Been thanked: 283 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

jamie wrote:Looked like there were some good storms waitomo way yesterday. Anyone chase?
Thought about it, but didn't think there was a lot to it. I have to remember that since all those detectors in Au have been added to Blitzortung it seems as if it's less sensitive over here. Only a couple of strikes showing usually equals a beauty storm here. I was watching radar and it certainly was delivering good rates.
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Some residual Cumulonumbus activity over here atm. Yesterday arvo while going back to Raglan, all the decent CB's were further south in Waitomo. Summer Thunderstorm Season will soon be over, then we will have to wait for active cold fronts.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by NZstorm »

Good heavy showers but the electrical activity was very weak I think yesterday.

Upper trough is smack over Waikato at 1pm today (500mb-19C) and moving out into BOP at 7pm. Some convection looks likely.
jamie
Posts: 5907
Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
Location: Hamilton NZ
Has thanked: 22 times
Been thanked: 273 times
Contact:

Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by jamie »

Darn I don't arrive home until midnight tonight.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by spwill »

I think May is the best month for storms in the Auckland region, still have the moisture hanging around while the cold upper troughs are starting to track further north across the North Island. The central Tasman Sea becomes unstable and we are downwind from that activity.

On the humid side here today, dewpoint 16C, current weather mostly fine 21C.
User avatar
Michael
Posts: 7210
Joined: Thu 27/03/2003 12:04
Location: Rainy Manurewa, Auckland - "City of Gales"
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 1 time
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Michael »

may is the messiest month,I reckon,reminds of rotting leaf matter,wet cats and weeds in the gardens.Never got TS but had torrential rain around 1430-1500,the rain started about 12 oclock and remained overcast the whole afternoon though went to the airport,it was so dry there,could see it go across.we have to weed already and the mower will have to come out soon.
spwill
Posts: 9907
Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
Location: Mt Eden Auckland
Has thanked: 839 times
Been thanked: 866 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by spwill »

Can see showers developing over North Auckland and the Coromandel, thunderstorms showing up BOP Ranges
User avatar
Tornado Tim
Moderator
Posts: 4920
Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
Has thanked: 102 times
Been thanked: 202 times
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Nice cell here, that Metservice has a warning for:
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

nice build up over the Hunua ranges area too
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
03Stormchaser
Moderator
Posts: 4428
Joined: Tue 09/12/2003 12:11
Location: Prebbleton
Has thanked: 104 times
Been thanked: 184 times
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

Like the Dust Devil there Brian
NZ Largest Storm Chasing Facebook Pagehttp://www.facebook.com/nzstormchasers
NZ Largest Storm Chase Community https://www.facebook.com/groups/NZStormchasersGroup
NZ Stormchasers TV https://www.youtube.com/@NZStormchasers
Manukau heads obs
Posts: 12305
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
Has thanked: 0
Been thanked: 0
Contact:

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

sorry you have to get a sore neck to look at it, LOL
Image
Brian Hamilton, weather enthusiast. My weather dataEmail: [email protected]
User avatar
NZstorm
Posts: 11333
Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
Has thanked: 342 times
Been thanked: 361 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by NZstorm »

S
spwill wrote:I think May is the best month for storms in the Auckland region, still have the moisture hanging around while the cold upper troughs are starting to track further north across the North Island. The central Tasman Sea becomes unstable and we are downwind from that activity.
May is climatologically the most active month for tornadoes in NZ, rare as they are.

The other time you can rely on for a good storm or two in the Auckland vicinity is August/September.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc
Posts: 18488
Joined: Wed 12/03/2003 22:08
Location: Raukapuka Geraldine
Has thanked: 1769 times
Been thanked: 1412 times

Re: Thunderstorms possible North Island Sunday March 23rd

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Nice picture, Brian
Can you turn it?
With these pictures you have to be very much on hand with the camera as they usually last for a few seconds.
There have been a few here but I don't bother photo'ing them as by the time you get your camera, they are gone.
JohnGaul
NZThS
Locked