NZ Weather Forum

GFS shows a great rainmaker in their models a week out. A few of the models are showing similar patterns so heres hoping it holds true.

looks as if a disturbed westerly flow follows this,this is Mondays 7th next week.

Wopps sorry that was for the BOM model. I was thinking it was GFS that I was looking at.

I like the fact its going to merge
With the low in the tasman and be slow moving

Here's hoping that low brings some rain,its so dry here ATM,been a couple of years since ive still been watering still at the end of March

The drought affected areas of the North Island may catch some afternoon heat showers on Thurs/Fri. Not much instability in the model but enough to give some localised soakings.

oddly doesn't feel like we need the rain here at the moment, even though we've had over 50mm less than this time last year and last year felt very very dry.
i'm sure the farmers probably feel differently, but it's a totally different look to the farms than this time last year, hard to believe we're that much drier (2013 YTD: 278mm, 2014 YTD: 222mm).
it's all down to the temps - ~1.5°C cooler this year is making all the difference.

Wow you have had heaps of rain einzack.

2014 - 71mm
2013 - 69mm

This time in 2013 we started getting
rain so we will very quickly fall behind last years YTD.

well you have to remember where I live.
both these years are low compared to what is normal.
in 2012 I had 351mm in the same period.

Met Service website, forecast for towns this morning says "No clothing layers, no windproof layers" !
[Sorry I don't know how to put up a screen-shot]

Fog for parts of Auckland this morning, starting to clear here now.
Increasing dewpoints across NZ next few days.

Interesting that the airport at midday was still on 16C with Stratus(lifting fog) where as its clear here in Grey Lynn 23C.

No rain from low from east for waikato
Or Auckland
But will be the start of a pattern change
To more unsettled weather

May catch an afternoon shower tomorrow if we are lucky. GFS has 700mb temperatures cooling off 5C which should allow some decent t/cu tomorrow with any convergence.

Orion wrote:Met Service website, forecast for towns this morning says "No clothing layers, no windproof layers" !
[Sorry I don't know how to put up a screen-shot]

That forecast might have been for the Mapua area i think http://www.mapualeisurepark.co.nz/clothes.html

Summery again today, 14C - 24C

Manukau heads obs wrote:No rain from low from east for waikato
Or Auckland
But will be the start of a pattern change
To more unsettled weather

Dam! The pattern has been unsettled for a while (since the low off Christchurch) but we just havent caught anything. It doesnt look good for the next week anyway. Need one of those lows dancing around us to come to the party.

This drought is going to become remembered as a very late drought. No rain into mid April at this stage.

jamie wrote:
This drought is going to become remembered as a very late drought. No rain into mid April at this stage.

You should catch a heat shower tomorrow though. 1mm to 20mm possible.

Should is a strong word. I would say there is a chance.

Was a few showers around this evening
Good sign re tomorrow

I see there was a thunderstorm off the BOP plenty coast early this morning, good sign for later today!

03Stormchaser wrote:I see there was a thunderstorm off the BOP plenty coast early this morning, good sign for later today!

Slept through it if it was near me

03Stormchaser wrote:I see there was a thunderstorm off the BOP plenty coast early this morning, good sign for later today!

Definitely get heavy showers today but thunder is unlikely. Instability is in the lower half of the profile.
If there was a storm it would be electrically weak as upper level lapse rates are weak.

As long as I can remember Cannot recall a tropical low 1000ks east of the north Is making it all the way back to the east coast. This is another example or the Jetstream anomalies and desruption we are seeing around the world now. In a nut shell when its dry its a long dry. And whan the wet comes [nextweek?] it may be prolonged and VERY wet, just my thoughts, sadly we may now be seeing a glimps into the future, as we have seen in the N hemisphere recently.

heavy shower to my south are causing a dust storm here. Thick dust in the still air mixing in the fox/inversion layer. Quite weird to see. No time for a photo sorry.