Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Forum rules
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
These topics are a read-only archive and may be subject to out-of-date information.
For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 273 times
- Contact:
Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
It looks like a very moist week ahead. Some very decent numbers being thrown out of the models at the moment.
Will we get consequtive thunder days? There is no upper level wind so these convergent heat showers are likely to be quite pulsy.
Will we get consequtive thunder days? There is no upper level wind so these convergent heat showers are likely to be quite pulsy.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Yes, weak shear but high moisture so thunderstorms will be pulse type with lots of rain locally.
BOP tomorrow,
Waitomo and possibly Auckland/Northland Wednesday?
BOP tomorrow,
Waitomo and possibly Auckland/Northland Wednesday?
- Tornado Tim
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
- Has thanked: 102 times
- Been thanked: 202 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Wow the GFS looks nice for this afternoon in central Waikato....Looks like the models have pulled in the moisture a bit more inland.
Karipro right bang in the middle, I'll keep an eye out this afternoon to see if its worth chasing but the forecast sounding is good, though weak in upper flow.
Just have to watch for the incoming moisture and when it starts coming over the Kaimais.
Metservice have it more coastal for potential Severe Storms, I bet they will change it later on this morning or afternoon if moisture starts coming in.
The unusually high SFC forecasted temps in Waikato will certainly help things kick off.
Jamie, you will be in a better position than me to chase in Karipiro, hopefully if things go off you can go there
Metservice T-storm Outlook:
Karipro right bang in the middle, I'll keep an eye out this afternoon to see if its worth chasing but the forecast sounding is good, though weak in upper flow.
Just have to watch for the incoming moisture and when it starts coming over the Kaimais.
Metservice have it more coastal for potential Severe Storms, I bet they will change it later on this morning or afternoon if moisture starts coming in.
The unusually high SFC forecasted temps in Waikato will certainly help things kick off.
Jamie, you will be in a better position than me to chase in Karipiro, hopefully if things go off you can go there
Metservice T-storm Outlook:
Metservice Thunderstorm WatchMetservice wrote: A low near East Cape this morning is forecast to drift westwards across Bay of Plenty today. The combination of moist air, onshore winds and daytime heating over the land is expected to produce heavy showers, with a moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms in Bay of Plenty this afternoon and early evening. Any thunderstorms that do form are likely to be slow moving and as a result have the potential to be SEVERE and capable of producing localised downpours exceeding 25mm/hr. There is a lower risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in a surrounding area including inland parts of Bay of Plenty, much of Waikato and Coromandel Peninsula.
No thunderstorms expected elsewhere. However, rain with some heavy falls will affect eastern areas between Gisborne and the Kaikoura Ranges today (including parts of Wellington) - see latest Severe Weather Warning and Watch.
Metservice wrote:Issued by MetService at 08:34 am Tuesday 08 April 2014
Valid until 08:00 pm Tuesday 08 April 2014
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Bay of Plenty
Rotorua
This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with very heavy rain.
The combination of moist air, onshore winds and daytime heating over the land is expected to produce heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in Bay of Plenty and Rotorua this afternoon until early evening. Any thunderstorms that do form are likely to be slow moving and as a result have the potential to be SEVERE and capable of producing localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr.
Rainfall of this intensity can cause flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.
Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and be alert for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.
Issued by: Chris Noble
This watch will be updated by: 02:00 pm Tuesday 08 April 2014
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 273 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Funnily enough Tim, i am at an event tonight in Karipiro so ill be there for sure!
- Tornado Tim
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
- Has thanked: 102 times
- Been thanked: 202 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Lucky Bugger, LOLjamie wrote:Funnily enough Tim, i am at an event tonight in Karipiro so ill be there for sure!
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 273 times
- Contact:
Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
I'm at ngatea at the moment. Plenty of moisture flowing over the mountains. But cloudy as a result.
-
- Posts: 9919
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 849 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
I will keep a watch next few days, if anything develops nearer Auckland I will chase.
Humid conditions here today, dewpoint 18C, current temp 23C, some high cloud, light winds.
Humid conditions here today, dewpoint 18C, current temp 23C, some high cloud, light winds.
-
- Posts: 316
- Joined: Sun 04/02/2007 20:29
- Location: katikati
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 6 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
showers/light rain starting to intensify BOP . Nothing spectacular yet. Tomorrow looks better for Waikato with hopefully less high cloud and more moisture.
ttttttttttt
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 417 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Another warm day, with 19C dewpoints! Mostly cloudy with a few spits around at the moment. We reached 24.5C, just 0.6 short of my April record.
- Tornado Tim
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
- Has thanked: 102 times
- Been thanked: 202 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Thought this would happen, they reviewed and brought the risk in for more inland areas
Outlook:
Outlook:
Watch:Metservice wrote:Updated 1:50pm to include eastern and southern Waikato in moderate risk area.
A low has moved westwards across Bay of Plenty today, with winds turning onshore there. The combination of moist air, onshore winds and daytime heating has produced scattered showers throughout Bay of Plenty also inland parts of Waikato and Waitomo. These showers are expected to become heavier this afternoon, with a moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms developing in Bay of Plenty and eastern and southern parts of Waikato. Any storms that do form are likely to be slow moving and as a result have the potential to be SEVERE and capable of producing localised downpours exceeding 25mm/hr. There is a lower risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in a surrounding area as indicated on the chart.
No thunderstorms expected elsewhere. However, rain with some heavy falls will affect eastern areas between Gisborne and the Kaikoura Ranges today (including parts of Wellington) - see latest Severe Weather Warning and Watch.
Metservice wrote:Issued by MetService at 01:42 pm Tuesday 08 April 2014
Valid until 08:00 pm Tuesday 08 April 2014
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Waikato
Bay of Plenty
Rotorua
This is an alert to the potential development of severe thunderstorms with very heavy rain.
The combination of moist air, onshore winds and daytime heating over the land is expected to produce heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms in Bay of Plenty, Rotorua and eastern and southern Waikato this afternoon until early evening. Any thunderstorms that do form are likely to be slow moving and as a result have the potential to be SEVERE and capable of producing localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr.
Rainfall of this intensity can cause flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.
Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and be alert for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.
Issued by: Chris Noble
This watch will be updated by: 08:00 pm Tuesday 08 April 2014
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
- Tornado Tim
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
- Has thanked: 102 times
- Been thanked: 202 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
24-26 Degrees around inland Waikato under mostly cloudy conditions, quite amazing.....
Wouldn't be surprised if showers started popping up quite soon.
Wouldn't be surprised if showers started popping up quite soon.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 273 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
no sign of showers yet. Car showed 27 all the way from Ngatea to home. About to now head to Karipiro where hopefully ill catch some action.
-
- Posts: 316
- Joined: Sun 04/02/2007 20:29
- Location: katikati
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 6 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Just stratiform cloud today, not a CB in sight, looks like a fizzer better luck tomorrow, dont waste your fuel this arvo !
ttttttttttt
-
- Posts: 9919
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 849 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Little in the way of sunshine/heating down there today.
A warm night on the way, currently 22C, dp 18C with medium level cloud cover moving in.
A warm night on the way, currently 22C, dp 18C with medium level cloud cover moving in.
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Some good low level convergence showing up on the gfs over inland North Island today. Today should see some cb development unlike yesterday.
Overnight min at Auckland airport was 19C with dp 17C.
Overnight min at Auckland airport was 19C with dp 17C.
-
- Posts: 316
- Joined: Sun 04/02/2007 20:29
- Location: katikati
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 6 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
The key trigger now will be for the low cloud to burn off. Is there any high cloud around today ? I am in the murk here, definitly killed it yesterday.
ttttttttttt
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 417 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Think you mean 18C min? Howick was 17C, more than warm enoughNZstorm wrote:Overnight min at Auckland airport was 19C with dp 17C.
-
- Posts: 12305
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 16:30
- Location: West Coast Road, Manukau Peninsula, North Island
- Has thanked: 0
- Been thanked: 0
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
18c here this morning and almost mist in the air and low cloud
- David
- Posts: 7587
- Joined: Sat 18/08/2007 21:02
- Location: Howick, Auckland
- Has thanked: 417 times
- Been thanked: 832 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
GFS shows good Lifted Index and CAPE numbers right up to Northland tomorrow, but Metservice outlook has no risk above North Waikato
- NZstorm
- Posts: 11333
- Joined: Mon 10/03/2003 19:38
- Location: Grey Lynn, Auckland
- Has thanked: 342 times
- Been thanked: 361 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Will be a fresher NE tomorrow which may make it harder to get good convergence. But the risk is not nil.David wrote:GFS shows good Lifted Index and CAPE numbers right up to Northland tomorrow, but Metservice outlook has no risk above North Waikato
-
- Posts: 9919
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 849 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Any heating tomorrow will increase the chance of some west coast convergence, Auckland/Northland
Current weather here, cloudy, light winds, 22C, dewpoint a stuffy 18C.
Current weather here, cloudy, light winds, 22C, dewpoint a stuffy 18C.
- Tornado Tim
- Moderator
- Posts: 4920
- Joined: Sun 19/10/2008 17:17
- Location: Raglan, Waikato / Hillcrest, Hamilton
- Has thanked: 102 times
- Been thanked: 202 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Completely Overcast in Raglan, Light showers developing central Waikato according to the BOP Radar.
NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
-
- Posts: 9919
- Joined: Sun 29/06/2003 22:39
- Location: Mt Eden Auckland
- Has thanked: 849 times
- Been thanked: 869 times
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Sunshine cloud mix for Ak, towering Cu to the SE
-
- Posts: 5907
- Joined: Fri 25/02/2011 21:35
- Location: Hamilton NZ
- Has thanked: 22 times
- Been thanked: 273 times
- Contact:
Re: Moist week with possible thunder, 7-Apr to 13-Apr
Metservice cant make up their mind today. They had a thunder outlook for today thismorning which was very similar to last nights. Then during the day they canceled it saying there was not enough heating. Now they have thunder on the cards again.