Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

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NZstorm
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Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by NZstorm »

Looking like the remains of Iti will deepen as it moves into the Tasman due to interaction with the polar jet stream.

The deepening low will be out at sea but major weather impacts still expected on NZ.

Rainfall total to midday Saturday according to gfs.
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Re: ex TC Iti affecting NZ Thurs17-Friday 18 April.

Unread post by Razor »

If it was a month or two later I'd be thinking low level snow
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Re: ex TC Iti affecting NZ Thurs17-Friday 18 April.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

I thought is was called "TC Ita" ?
.... but anyway, the remnants of it, as it drifts South to SE in the Tasman Sea, feeding into the developing area of low pressure to the west to NW of NZ , should cause a lot of precipitation to fall on areas that need it, also on areas that actually don't really want the rain, like here. :mad:
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by treetop »

Looks like N/W Nelson in the firing line "again"
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Re: ex TC Iti affecting NZ Thurs17-Friday 18 April.

Unread post by NZstorm »

Razor wrote:If it was a month or two later I'd be thinking low level snow
Looks like a good over running scenario there. Some snow possible to 1000m inland before the warmer air moves in.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by jamie »

I think I could get 60mm from this event. \:D/
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by David »

Still looking good for 70mm here I think :)
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by NZstorm »

David wrote:Still looking good for 70mm here I think :)
If we can get cb's on warm front on Thursday then heavy embedded falls of upto 40mm an hour. Some big gusts possible to 60knots also.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by spwill »

The instability numbers do suggest some very heavy localised falls are possible, a different looking system to the last rain maker, ex- TC Luci.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Good to see patchy rain moving this way for overnight
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Razor »

frankly I am worried about the implications of current projections for a currently sodden and damaged ChCh. We will only need 50mm plus for there to be trouble on Friday...and its a public hol so normal 'services' may be slower to react?
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Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by jamie »

We need this low west of us to be further east. Most of the rain is going to fall over the sea.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by melja »

Chch looks to be not to bad on a whole over easter, bit of heavy rain Thursday arvo/night but then im not seeing much else and it looks very NW like too.
The low looks to far west.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by NZstorm »

jamie wrote:We need this low west of us to be further east. Most of the rain is going to fall over the sea.
We should get enough to end the drought though. There will be big totals in the usual places like top of Northland/Coromandal ranges......

I notice UKmet has the front still over eastern BOP Friday. Will be a soaker for them if that is correct.

A bit of instability tomorrow but Friday has cooler temps aloft with thunder/hail in some North Island places.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

My new Gore Tex raincoat got a wash in water repellant treatment last night. It's going to get a real test tonight and tomorrow. End of School term, time to move Mobile Dental Units, poor timing of this weather system from my perspective.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Richard »

Landing in Auckland around the middle of the day tomorrow and then two days near Rotorua,hoping for storms while i'm there. :D
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Willoughby »

Looks like you might be in luck, Richard!

A heap of instability to pass down over the upper NI behind the warm front on Friday (CAPE above 1700 in parts) with decent shear.

Certainly a lot of rain coming for the Coromandel, Tasman and Nelson regions.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Storm Struck »

From what I can see on the models which have been in line for the last 4-5 days, rain with heavy falls will set in from Thursday evening lasting through the night and slowly clearing off about mid morning on Friday.
The wind flow is straight easterly although maybe E-SE from southern Christchurch down to about Rakaia where a funnelling/sheltering affect takes place from the peninsula, so perhaps less rain through these areas.
The worst areas in these types of events seem to be inland to the west and north, and those on the coast around Pegasus bay.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by spwill »

Some very nice moisture (dewpoint 15-18C) showing for the upper North Island Fri/Sat under cool upper level temps, definitely days to watch for possible thunder.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by spike_01 »

BOM has the centre at 975..

Strong system.. 0_o
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Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by jamie »

Where will the storms be on Friday? I'm heading to taupo Friday morning and will be there for the night. Hopefully they come to me.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by NZstorm »

jamie wrote:Where will the storms be on Friday? I'm heading to taupo Friday morning and will be there for the night. Hopefully they come to me.
More likely in the west and BOP. But will know better closer to the time.

Looks like some thunder will come into Northland tomorrow morning on the warm front but I think storms may be elevated.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Richard »

Man the low has transformed into an ominous looking system now 8-o i do hope the trip up to Auckland is not going to be too rough going
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Storm Struck »

It looks like the northern west coast of the South Island could get some potentially large gusts tomorrow, especially up Wesport/Buller area maybe 140-150kmh.
A repeat of 2008 when the area had wind gusts up to 154kmh ripping off roofs and uprooting trees, similar northern low positional movement too.
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Re: Ex-TC Ita affecting NZ - April 17-19 (Thu-Sat)

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Nice to hear the sound of rain on the roof!
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