NZ Weather Forum

Looking like a reasonably settled start to the first month of winter. Metservice going for lows of about -3 for the next few days around Canterbury....

Not a lot happening for the next 15 days on the gfs. Country could get a soaking mid month from a Tasman Sea low but upper level temps look warm with that.

Off topic but an interesting pic here of a cb top over the volcanic eruption in Indonesia yesterday.

http://resources3.news.com.au/images/20 ... 5fe9a0.jpg

Greylynn showing 218.8mm for the year so far. With El Nino this year it is possible northern NZ could be in dry westerlies from early/mid October. Looking for a wet June-September.

spwill wrote:Greylynn showing 218.8mm for the year so far. With El Nino this year it is possible northern NZ could be in dry westerlies from early/mid October. Looking for a wet June-September.

Howick not much better on 261mm for the year. Easily the driest Jan-May period for at least 10 years (I got my first plastic rain gauge in 2005, so not sure of rainfalls before then).

No idea of the rainfall totals here in the Grey.. but for now, 1st of the month is a cool start with the barber in full flow.. shaping up to be a cracker of a day with that big fat high sitting over in the tasman.. and the sound of a hundred hammers still patching up lost rooves from the easter storm.. good time to get out into the garden!

It almost looks to me like a returning pattern back to more La Nina than El nino into next week, a small shallow low down from the NSW coastline by the end of the week.
The highs have also shifted back to the positions of about 2-3 weeks ago before the NW/SW flow occurred, I am picking this winter will be flip flopping between the two which could be more trouble if a northern low collides with a polar rodent.
My pick is a milder winter on average but I am still firmly set on a big dumping of snow

Every year people say "oh theres going to be a big dump of snow this winter" with no real facts behind it just blind hope that some big event will happen.

Immmmm , I'm picking a mild winter but there could be the occasional cold events that will deliver snow or sleety events, like what Jase is suggesting.
The El Nino trying hard to kick La Nina up the butt!!!

3.1 degrees, and low cloud coming over making it a bit bleak compared to the earlier sunshine

Orion wrote:3.1 degrees, and low cloud coming over making it a bit bleak compared to the earlier sunshine

Still -1 here and foggy

Not much wind here at the moment and rather smoggy from some burn-offs.

melja wrote:Every year people say "oh theres going to be a big dump of snow this winter" with no real facts behind it just blind hope that some big event will happen.

Tell me about it!
the build up to winter in the UK was "100 days of snow on the ground", "worst winter ever" etc

turned out to be very mild and no snow south of nothern scotland!

Thank your stars your press isn't like the British press (I assume).. were close enough the Arctic here for them to get away with some ridiculous headlines. On the other hand logic dictates than NZ is far enough from the Antarctic to avoid "ice age now" headlines, or "Coldest, snowiest winter in 350 years" type headlines)

Brr still below 0 at midday in Alex, must be more fog.

stepr wrote:Thank your stars your press isn't like the British press (I assume).. were close enough the Arctic here for them to get away with some ridiculous headlines. On the other hand logic dictates than NZ is far enough from the Antarctic to avoid "ice age now" headlines, or "Coldest, snowiest winter in 350 years" type headlines)

that big dumping though was one to remember...but yes, those crazy tabloids can have the public in a panic over the dinosaurs returning soon

Warmish sort of day here, currently sunny and 19C

Lovely weather for June, low 10C, currently 19C, partly cloudy, light winds.

Looks like we keep the general easterly pattern over northern NZ into next week with falling pressure north of NZ. A change from May which was dominated by westerly pattern.

Does anyone know if the current run of cold nights is close to a record for Christchurch for late May/ early June? Looks like we are going to end up with around 11 out of 12 nights 0C or below? What an amazing run!!

I'm surprised how early in the evenings it has been reaching 0. Especially when there is little snow nearby yet.

Also of note is that the maximum gust at the airport over the past 5 days is just 19km/h. 15km/h here for the 5 days. The mean wind speed over the past 5 days is just 1.1km/h! Not often you get such a prolonged period of no wind. Northeast breezes look likely to return tomorrow afternoon for the first time in a while.

On another subject, I see CRT now do all national regions!

Yes, it has been a calm period with not much wind.
Very wintry anticyclonic conditions from this very slow moving anticyclone over us at the moment.

CHCH Weather Chaser wrote:
On another subject, I see CRT now do all national regions!

Yes. Tony expanding out nationwide.

Fog in Chch early this morning and a tiny bit of high cloud today, after 4 days of clear skies.

The road up by my new house in mayfield has stayed frozen for the last 6 days! Been an average low of -3.7C for the past 7 days

Looks like there might be a bit of rain from the east next week for the Canterbury area, more so on the north Canterbury coast.