Heavy rain event 8-13 June

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David
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Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by David »

Time for a new thread for the significant rain event coming up for the North Island and eastern South Island from Canterbury northwards.

Chart showing GFS model (18Z) precipitation accumulation for the next 120 hrs:
gfs_rain_accum_120hr_8June2014.gif
The first warnings have been issued:
http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... r-warnings
Heavy rain over northern parts of both islands developing Monday
An active low over the north Tasman Sea is expected to move southwards during Sunday to lie west of the North Island by midnight and become slow moving west of the upper South Island by midday Monday. The low will spread a moist northeast flow over New Zealand during Sunday and Monday, bringing rain to many northern and central areas of New Zealand. A period of significant heavy rain is expected during Monday and into Tuesday in northern and eastern Northland, the Coromandel Peninsula, Nelson, Marlborough and areas of the Canterbury High Country and foothills. 100mm to 150mm of rain could accumulate in most of these areas. However in the ranges of Nelson 150 to 250mm is possible.

People are advised that these rainfalls can cause rivers and streams to rise rapidly, surface fllooding, slips and make driving conditions hazardous.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Richard »

Yes some big totals there 8-o ,155mm for mid/north Canterbury
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by CWUweather »

Richard wrote:Yes some big totals there 8-o ,155mm for mid/north Canterbury
How about 230mm for far NE North Island...
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Nev »

Today's Outlook from MS for the next few days looks interesting...
MetService - Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:44pm Sunday 8 Jun 2014
Valid from Tuesday 10 June 2014 to Friday 13 June 2014

A trough of low pressure is expected to lie slow-moving just west of New Zealand through to Friday directing a northeast to easterly airstream over northern and central areas. One low is expected to move down the trough to the west of New Zealand on Monday before swinging away west over the Tasman Sea on Tuesday. A second low is likely to move down the trough over or close to Northland on Tuesday and Wednesday. Heavy rainfall warnings have been issued for parts of Northland, the Coromandel Peninsula, Nelson, Marlborough, Kaikoura Coast and Canterbury for Monday and continuing into Tuesday.

In addition further heavy rain is expected in parts of the north and east of both islands from Wednesday through to Thursday.

Also, easterly gales may rise to severe gale in western parts of the North Island as shown on the chart on Tuesday and Wednesday.
MetService Severe Wx Outlook - Is. Jun 8.png
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by David »

Nev wrote:Today's Outlook from MS for the next few days looks interesting...
I'm surprised Auckland is not mentioned at all in the heavy rain area based on recent modelling
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by NZstorm »

David wrote:
Nev wrote:Today's Outlook from MS for the next few days looks interesting...
I'm surprised Auckland is not mentioned at all in the heavy rain area based on recent modelling
Looks like we get some rain tomorrow David but the gfs has the front east of Auckland from later tomorrow.

Significant orographic enhancement of rainfall will occur Coromandal/Kaimai/western BOP due to strong NE Monday/Tuesday.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote: Looks like we get some rain tomorrow David but the gfs has the front east of Auckland from later tomorrow.
As far as I'm aware that's only the latest GFS that shows it further east, possibly it could change again next couple of model runs...
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by NZstorm »

There is no ukmet coming in. But I agree the gfs may be shifting the front east to quickly. Time will tell.

Looks like the heavy rain set up is at its peak across Coromandel Tuesday and then eases.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by David »

The 12z GFS model has the heavy rain back over Auckland throughout Tuesday
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

not much rain around the auckland area.... yet...
northland had some good shower lines overnight
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by NZstorm »

Rain still to our west!
I like the 16C this morning, much better than the 1C a couple of weeks back!
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by melja »

Not much round the Rangiora area only 6mm so far from this rain band and it looks to be easing.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Richard »

19mm so far,just been steady all night
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by spwill »

1 mm here so far, warm this morning 17C, dp 15C.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by David »

Metservice 3 day model has gone crazy with the rain totals:
MS_next48hrs_Auckland_9June2014.png
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by David »

And... here is the latest GFS rain accumulation chart for next 72 hours.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by jamie »

Its probably a direct feed off GFS or something. Very similar numbers.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Razor »

yeah- Kerikeri even more extreme....
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by CWUweather »

Hmm, not much here today, I suspect it will move down later today. Still looking at 60-80mm tomorrow I think with 20mm this afternoon.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

could hear the seagulls this morning...they must have seen GFS, LOL
but you do have to say that with a northerly fetch reaching further and further into the tropics and a low that is slowly deepening, big potential for rain
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Razor »

CWUweather wrote:Hmm, not much here today, I suspect it will move down later today. Still looking at 60-80mm tomorrow I think with 20mm this afternoon.
Looks like 30-40mm for the whole event for ChCh to me. only 2mm so far

Much more for the inland/highcountry areras.
Time will tell
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

cloud base has lowered alot here now
looks like rain now
rain bands really starting to get orgranised now over northland and are slipping south :)
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by wembley »

Might not amount to much.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by CWUweather »

Razor wrote:
CWUweather wrote:Hmm, not much here today, I suspect it will move down later today. Still looking at 60-80mm tomorrow I think with 20mm this afternoon.
Looks like 30-40mm for the whole event for ChCh to me. only 2mm so far

Much more for the inland/highcountry areras.
Time will tell
You could well be right, starting to feed back in now, and all that to the north over the nelson area and beyond is set to feed down i think.... time will tell as you say.
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Re: Heavy rain event 8-13 June

Unread post by David »

Rain still hasn't set in here yet, just a few drizzly patches. Mild 18C.
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