General July Weather

[matttbs]

Just a general question here, what would the thickness level need to be for snow around 300m? I was told around 530 by a friend but seeing as there's a few experts here I thought it wouldn't hurt to ask.

[Bradley]

GFS back on board in the latest run with 850hpa temps of between -4C and -5C for around 8 hours on Wednesday, hopefully substantially more moisture then the late May event though!!

[NZstorm]

Just a general question here, what would the thickness level need to be for snow around 300m? I was told around 530 by a friend but seeing as there's a few experts here I thought it wouldn't hurt to ask.

It depends on the situation. 530 is getting cold enough.

In unstable polar air masses, you want to see thickness below 530 for snow to 300m.

With the scenario where you get cold air undercutting a rain system, snow can fall to very low levels with thickness around 535.

[matttbs]

Met services and blue skies both predicting 2 cold snaps. Obviously computer generated nonsense but could this mean that we are finally going to get a barrage of southerly fronts to make up for the summer month of June? - I bloody hope so! Also earlier on razor you mentioned in one of your posts the word 'shredded'. I find that halerious seeing as your name is razor. Stay funny man

[SnwAddct]

Seeing some consistency in the GFS runs again for Wednesday's cold outbreak..

[Bradley]

Yep bigtime snwaddct, 850hpa temps of around -5C and loads of moisture around Wednesday, IF it becomes a warm advective event this could be quite decent for 10-15cm of the white stuff down to near sea-level. Now the waiting game to see if the models become consistent, the next 48 hours are key...

[einzack]

Metservice forecast for Reefton has snow on Wednesday and Thursday.
I mentioned it to the kids and now they're super excited.
How likely is it actually looking at this stage?

[Roseo]

I have just seen metservice is predicting 3 days of snow for methven?????

[Bradley]

Also going for snow in Timaru on Thursday - we shall see...

[CHCH Weather Chaser]

Once again, don't read anything into the computer generated forecasts (outside the 5 days) However it is looking very cold. Models are still fluctuating big time though on this system. The next 48 hours or so we should start to see some consistency in one way or another. At the very least, some ski fields that are in desperate need should get a coating!

[NZstorm]

Ruapehu certainly is going to get snow next week!

[Bradley]

Models becoming consistent now with 850hpa temps less then expected and little moisture, now just an average strongish July cold front to be expected this time of year.

[melja]

Im of on a trip down south for two weeks in the caravan so hope to see some snow.
Down east coast the next few days to the catlins then up to alex and then through the haast so might see snow in the catlins and then up into alex by the looks of the forecast.

[David]

There should certainly be some wintry showers with hail for many places around 2-3 July I think. GFS showing 500 hPa temps below -30C.

[spwill]

A Thunder/hail risk for Auckland on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly Thursday also if the cold upper troughing hangs in there.
The North Island Ski fields should be well snow coated by the end of the week.

[Bradley]

Metservice finally seeing sense and upping the snow line from 200m to 500m for Darfield Wed/Thu...

[Storm Struck]

I am seeing the snow level much lower than 500m through the latter bit of next week, 100-200m Is what I am picking at the moment I think the models are missing a few things but none the less will be sleet and hail to sea level.
Wednesday's change I am picking the snow level to be around 200-300m, sometimes you have to look past the models and look at the basics this high is massive over aussie and its dragging cold air up from the caps .

[NZstorm]

This is todays snow report from Aus according to Weatherzone

Some of the most notable falls reported across the last 24 hours were a massive 70cm at Thredbo, 40cm at Perisher and 40cm at Falls Creek. Even Thredbo Village managed to get some healthy snow as snow levels reached the lowest of the season so far, picking up 30cm.

[SnwAddct]

Looking good for North Island fields..

[matttbs]

Looking at the metvuw gfs the wind direction is SE and there still looks to be a lot of moisture for canty on wed/thurs. Metservice and the majority of the other forecasting going for SW and not much moisture. I have not seen such wild variances so close to the event, I don't know what to believe ha! Will just wait and see I guess

[NZstorm]

Front crossing Auckland tomorrow afternoon is one to keep an eye on!
Surface dewpoints 11C with 500mb -24C. Hopefully some lightning/hail.

[Michael]

It be J for Junk/July in Auckland the whole week by the looks.

[tgsnoopy]

If work permits, I'm considering a run up the Kaimais for this front. I like the look of it (at this stage).

[mikestormchaser]

im seeing wensday as the coldie for the week for sure wintry showers, some hail and sleet to low levels, where has that bloody rain band gone when we wanted it!

[melja]

Nice fine morning in dunedin with -1.6C, of to the northern catlins area today so might catch some hail and sleet tonight.