Low-level Snow for Canty? - July 18-22

[bpo]

Ever thought about moving to Kaitaia Bpo? Away from that demon snow forever! Fine day here, cold SW

That's only one of the many reasons to live up north!

[bpo]

Snows every winter here too,wonder if this could be the first year without though,cant see any decent fall over the next day or so.

Each year down here sees less snow on average than the previous winter. Chances are the time will come when there's none at all, and that's probably going to be sooner rather than later. Bad news for ski field operators and skiers, but pretty good for most everybody else.

[Paul Mallinson]

There are two critical aspects for getting significant snow in Christchurch tomorrow:
1. The convergence zone between the colder southwesterly over the land and the warmer south-southwesterly flow from the sea needs to lie over the CHCH area. (These always wobble around to some extent).
2. The precip needs to be heavy enough to push the snow level down further than it otherwise might penetrate.

If #1 happens, then the precip intensity will likely be in the order of 5-10mm/hr which would probably lower snow to the elevation of CHCH.

This is tricky stuff!

Paul

[bpo]

This is tricky stuff!

Nah, anyone can do it. All ya need is the backing of a friendly media empire, or even just create a Facebook page. Voila: Instant meteorologist.

[Paul Mallinson]

Further to our brief discussion yesterday about daytime hghs - I see CHCH and Ashburton have got to 8C today with a 15kt southwesterly wind.

Paul

[Razor]

There are two critical aspects for getting significant snow in Christchurch tomorrow:
1. The convergence zone between the colder southwesterly over the land and the warmer south-southwesterly flow from the sea needs to lie over the CHCH area. (These always wobble around to some extent).
2. The precip needs to be heavy enough to push the snow level down further than it otherwise might penetrate.

If #1 happens, then the precip intensity will likely be in the order of 5-10mm/hr which would probably lower snow to the elevation of CHCH.

This is tricky stuff!

Paul

Thanks Paul- I learnt something there, which is why I come to this site. Much appreciated

As I speak the shower activity is starting to push into southern Port hills and SE suburbs of ChCh from the peninsula, where it was domiciled all morning

[Dean.]

Further to our brief discussion yesterday about daytime hghs - I see CHCH and Ashburton have got to 8C today with a 15kt southwesterly wind.

Paul

Sunny day here in Ashburton,the band of cloud off the coast here is thickening and starting to move more towards the coast north of Rakaia.Hard to see any sleet showers forming over this area with this SW flow.

[petem8nz]

As I speak the shower activity is starting to push into southern Port hills and SE suburbs of ChCh from the peninsula, where it was domiciled all morning[/quote]

Still Dry with the odd spit in Bromley all the shower activity has been off the coast & further east past Sumner from what I have seen visually today.

[petem8nz]

This is tricky stuff!

Nah, anyone can do it. All ya need is the backing of a friendly media empire, or even just create a Facebook page. Voila: Instant meteorologist.

Leave the poor fella alone he has probably been on here learning from all of you for years. Take it as a compliment although I do think said personality should share and ask and not lecture to you all.

No offence intended, it's just my thoughts given some of the off hand comments I have seen on here over the last few months about the young fella.

[mikestormchaser]

There are two critical aspects for getting significant snow in Christchurch tomorrow:
1. The convergence zone between the colder southwesterly over the land and the warmer south-southwesterly flow from the sea needs to lie over the CHCH area. (These always wobble around to some extent).
2. The precip needs to be heavy enough to push the snow level down further than it otherwise might penetrate.

If #1 happens, then the precip intensity will likely be in the order of 5-10mm/hr which would probably lower snow to the elevation of CHCH.

This is tricky stuff!

Paul

Thanks paul appreaciate all contribrutions from you guys and expereinced forcarsters.

[Razor]

here it comes....

[Classicford]

Awesome pic mate

[bpo]

Leave the poor fella alone he has probably been on here learning from all of you for years.

Bloody amateurs!

Take it as a compliment although I do think said personality should share and ask and not lecture to you all.

No offence intended, it's just my thoughts given some of the off hand comments I have seen on here over the last few months about the young fella.

These kids today, honestly.

[melja]

Great pic but dont think thats gona come this way lol.

[petem8nz]

Great pic but dont think thats gona come this way lol.

It nicked us in Bromley, sunny over the City/Linwood East and South looking cold and wet. We had a good hail shower and its just on and off atm as it's passing.

[03Stormchaser]

Flying into Christchurch tonight after five weeks in South East Asia, going to be a wake up call for sure!

[bpo]

Flying into Christchurch tonight after five weeks in South East Asia, going to be a wake up call for sure!

Where'd you go?

[Richard]

Surprised to see a few showers passing to the west of here

[shovelopikis]

Ever thought about moving to Kaitaia Bpo? Away from that demon snow forever! Fine day here, cold SW

That's only one of the many reasons to live up north!

My rule of thumb to any NZ visitors and friends is, the more south the better.
better weather/culture, and people in my opinion

central otago is always going to be home to me.

[Talbotm]

What are people thinking for snow amounts out west?? Darfield?? Rangiora??? Oxford?? Thoughts??

[mikestormchaser]

What are people thinking for snow amounts out west?? Darfield?? Rangiora??? Oxford?? Thoughts??

not much

[Dean.]

Surprised to see a few showers passing to the west of here

Passed through here a few hours ago then quickly cleared.Clear and frosty tonight.

[03Stormchaser]

Flying into Christchurch tonight after five weeks in South East Asia, going to be a wake up call for sure!

Where'd you go?

Three weeks in Vietnam, two weeks in Thailand, a day in Singapore and a couple days in Aussie on the way over as well.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I feel the anticyclone is pushing in so, cold , dry weather coming up.

[Dean.]

Latest Metview chart has the flow turning more southerly after midnight bringing showers inland north of the Rangitata.