Low-level Snow for Canty? - July 18-22

[Bradley]

Tony at Blueskies got the forecast spot on once again, he didn't get caught up in the hype and just looked purely at the data the models were spitting out, well done once again!

[CWUweather]

Tony at Blueskies got the forecast spot on once again, he didn't get caught up in the hype and just looked purely at the data the models were spitting out, well done once again!

I don't really understand this. Everyone was forecasting around about the same thing. Metservice had sleet in CHCH, with the chance of sea level snow, as did we. Tony had light showers with snow flurries above 200m, pretty much right other than the fact that the showers this morning (after midnight) were actually quite heavy as the moved through.


On another note, some interesting development down near Oamaru on the radar now.

[Bradley]

Metservice didn't just mentiom sleet mate, they clearly mentioned 'snow' in their forecasts a number of times in their forecast for Christchurch city (not just for the port hills either)

[mikestormchaser]

Absolutely agree Bradley. Full credit to blue skies and weather watch. Very accurate

[melja]

Yep tony has been spot on the last wee while
No 10-15cm at 200m or 5-10cm lower down like others forecasted and i have to say the snow i saw on the hills round chch was very minimal at best and way higher than expected.

[Razor]

Its snowing on Sugarloaf (Port Hills) again now. Seems to be a freshening of the flow again back towards land

[matttbs]

Snow showers moving up the mountains by mt peel inland mid/south canterbury

[TonyT]

Tony at Blueskies got the forecast spot on once again, he didn't get caught up in the hype and just looked purely at the data the models were spitting out, well done once again!

Thanks. Its only about the 250th cold winter outbreak I've had to get to grips with over the years...

Actually I think half the battle is to be able to put the model data details completely out of your mind and just absorb the bigger picture.

[melja]

Yeah i have to say im getting sick of the word models, a few year back you didnt here it much but now its models this models that.

[mikestormchaser]

Yep tony has been spot on the last wee while
No 10-15cm at 200m or 5-10cm lower down like others forecasted and i have to say the snow i saw on the hills round chch was very minimal at best and way higher than expected.

could not agree more and also a good ups to paul from metservice sharing some of his thoughts and expertise, its great to always be learning as i certainly am no expert.

[melja]

Yeah its good they still give there time on here to give us some thinking behind there forecasts, even if they do get a hard time from people(me included).
Now they just need to sort out that bloody clunky web site of theres

[NZstorm]

Yeah its good they still give there time on here to give us some thinking behind there forecasts, even if they do get a hard time from people(me included).
Now they just need to sort out that bloody clunky web site of theres

Met Service need to do mesoscale discussions for any severe weather event. The MD provides a bit of meaning and understanding to predictions. USA National Weather Service offices do these regularly and its done a bit in Europe as well.

[bpo]

Tony at Blueskies got the forecast spot on once again, he didn't get caught up in the hype and just looked purely at the data the models were spitting out, well done once again!

Bah! That's why nobody pays any attention to that old fuddy-duddy.

Hype's what weather is all about! Hype, hysteria, and Facebook.

Oh, and Twitter. I almost forgot Twitter.

[Dean.]

Metservice needs to sharpen up most of their forecasts.BOM in Australia break down events very well.
Probably why CWU here in Canterbury have a strong following as they explain the situation well.
TV One weather also don't help Metservice the way they throw a shower clouds about,Jim should have explained last night that most of the snow/shower activity would be coastal for Canterbury.

[Dean.]

Ive seen you on Facebook BPO,discussing snow conditions on the local skifields.......

[bpo]

Ive seen you on Facebook BPO,discussing snow conditions on the local skifields.......

Filthy lies!

[Storm Struck]

I thought the same there Deano that Jim Hickey didn't explain it very well, it pretty much looked like a clear day over the city with just a mention of the peninsula when the forecasts clearly stated the city would be affected.
But anyway It's very rare he messes up, the only actual weather presenter who is into weather and understands it.

I am actually getting a little bit sick of all this competing jargon between forecasters, who got what right and who didn't , after all the weather is a very complicated thing especially when it comes to low level snow in particular sea level as it only happens about once or twice a year significantly.

[Dean.]

Was suprised sea level snow was even mentioned in forecasts considering the upper air temps that were forecasted in models

[Bradley]

Tony at Blueskies got the forecast spot on once again, he didn't get caught up in the hype and just looked purely at the data the models were spitting out, well done once again!

Thanks. Its only about the 250th cold winter outbreak I've had to get to grips with over the years...

Actually I think half the battle is to be able to put the model data details completely out of your mind and just absorb the bigger picture.

Based on current performance of the Metservice and in particular CWU in the accuracy of their forecasts would you be interested perhaps in taking over both entities Tony? haha

[CWUweather]

Hey Bradley. Nice to know what you think actually as we are never going to please everyone I suppose. I find it funny how we mention snow to low levels and the POSSIBILITY of sea level snow and every one always thinks "it is definitely going to happen... either that or you're not reading the forecasts properly.
Metservice were saying that snow could could cause disruptions in Christchurch, "COULD" being the key word, it was 2-3deg for most of the night when those beefy showers were skidding through, so they were about 2deg off... thats not too bad in my books. If it was 0-1deg, then they would have fallen as snow to sea level and probably would have caused a few issues.
Weather is hard to forecast at the best of times, let alone sea level snow as Jason was saying before. We all need to stop bagging someone or a a company when we/they get something a little wrong, it is always going to happen!

[Bradley]

Relax Josh Just aim to be better next time and perhaps even learn something from the pros, no shame in admitting you have a fair way still to go in learning all the different nuances in weather forecasting! You are only 17 afterall, you're doing very well to have achieved what you have to this point!

[CWUweather]

Relax Josh Just aim to be better next time and perhaps even learn something from the pros, no shame in admitting you have a fair way still to go in learning all the different nuances in weather forecasting! You are only 17 afterall, you're doing very well to have achieved what you have to this point!

I try my best to relax, but find it hard to when I come on here, and see people saying how wrong we are etc and having a few digs at us. I take it all as I go, but would just be nice not to see it at all. Yes, a lot to to learn for me, but for everyone too. We can always continue to learn.

[Bradley]

Why do you even come on here anymore Josh if we're all so mean? You clearly are always having a read of our thoughts on upcoming systems if you manage to respond to any criticism within an hour or so?

[CWUweather]

I don't come here to read criticism, I come here to read about weather from all of you who are indeed very knowledgeable. Certain unnecessary things just always seem to pop up.
That's like me asking you why you follow what CWU says if you think we are wrong...

[Bradley]

I don't come here to read criticism, I come here to read about weather from all of you who are indeed very knowledgeable. Certain unnecessary things just always seem to pop up.
That's like me asking you why you follow what CWU says if you think we are wrong...

Yes I noticed a number of times you have almost cut and pasted word for word someones thoughts on an upcoming system to your own nightly forecast, I guess it's a compliment to them in a way