Low-level Snow for Canty? - July 18-22

[Dean.]

The forecasted high for Ashburton on Monday is 7 degrees.Seems low considering the main SW surge will be east of Ashburton,more sun likely here than ChCh.

I think its looking more of a SSW flow so it should be less coastal

Perhaps,but still not really affecting the mainland south of the Rakaia.
http://weather.noble.gen.nz/nz_model_tiles.php

[Storm Struck]

The best potential for snow in the city will be from late Monday Afternoon into the night and early Tuesday morning, a very much SW initially turning more S-SW later tomorrow directing the typical chain shower lines through Rakaia Ellesmere north wards along the coast.
Although there will be some showers further inland and west but just less frequent.
Also of note to me is the potential for a small low to form off the North Canterbury coast on Tuesday evening, as I notice an increase in precipitation from the city northwards for a good 8-10hrs, which can only mean something is helping to form this.
Although the snow level will be at 200m by this stage, it is a case of how heavy the snow is falling to that level and whether It continues to drop to sea level with further significant falls something to watch anyway.
That's where you will probably get the best of the system Richard, what is your elevation?

[NZstorm]

If GFS is correct then central North Island will get a decent amount of snow in the next 2-3 days. High roads on the central and lower NI look likely to be disrupted.

[jamie]

I am considering a drive down on Wednesday. Can't do Tuesday sadly

[Richard]

I think its looking more of a SSW flow so it should be less coastal

Perhaps,but still not really affecting the mainland south of the Rakaia.
http://weather.noble.gen.nz/nz_model_tiles.php

Yet this shows more of an onshore flow

[mikestormchaser]

im thinking christchurch could well see a few snow flurries tomorrow evening/night.

showers will develop id say around late morning becoming more persistant in the afternoon as that flow goes more SSW

[Dean.]

I'll believe it when I see it.Will be a Banks Peninsula event to me.
Expecting a fine cold day here tommorrow

[Dean.]

Heaviest precipitation staying offshore according to latest Metvuw data.http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... noofdays=7

[snowykiwi]

So we might just miss this one here in Rakaia? I saw only a very light coating of snow between Barrhill and Methven on Friday afternoon. Do you see this system hitting Rakaia and Methven?

[Dean.]

Methven will stay fine, Rakaia will be on the edge of the SSW flow if it actually does move more inland from tomorrow afternoon

[Talbotm]

Wonder what the chances are the wind turns more southerly?? if that low stops moving east then i would think the moisture would move in a more southerly direction and therefore things could deteriorate??. Also what are peoples thoughts on the likely hood of Darfield and Oxford getting much out of this?? Any guesses on snow depths if any??

[melja]

God help us, the snow circus is well and truly underway now in the media and social media
Im with Deano, looks very coastal and going by the radar this is very evident all ready.

[mikestormchaser]

Cold air and precipitation comes in tonight. Overnight is best chance to sea snow flurries in city.

[Razor]

Hail / graupel shower moving thru Cashmere at present

[bpo]

Very light snow showers off and on in Omarama a few hours ago, with a thin layer settled until sunrise. It's stopped falling now and there's nothing left on the ground. Some of the usual tourist ski rabble were squealing and gibbering like imbeciles because they heard from someone that it was snowing in Queenstown.

[mattyj46]

Snowing and settling in Mossburn, northern southland. Great time to come back from holiday

[mikestormchaser]

Snowing and settling in Mossburn, northern southland. Great time to come back from holiday

how high is mossburn matty?

[Razor]

Snowing and settling in Mossburn, northern southland. Great time to come back from holiday

how high is mossburn matty?

Its about 300-350m from my recollection

[Richard]

Snowing and settling in Mossburn, northern southland. Great time to come back from holiday

how high is mossburn matty?

298 m going by https://koordinates.com/layer/88-nz-spot-heights/

[Razor]

I see Metservice going for Snow in town, enough to possibly be disruptive in the morning. but Tony is going the other way if I am reading CRT- only light and very coastal, like many others here are saying.

Stay away from the social media hysteria if this is a fizzer again....

[petem8nz]

how high is mossburn matty?[/quote]

Its about 300-350m from my recollection[/quote]

Close! It's 288m

[snowykiwi]

So what are the models looking like? I've had a look on metservice for the Canterbury plains and they are showing moisture for us here in Rakaia from 4pm this afternoon onwards, I am hoping that is only rain. I remember the big dump of snow the city got in 1992 with a SE and a high in the tasman sea, that has always been my indicator for a good snowfall. I'm not familiar with how SW affect the Rakaia region down here though. All the locals tell me they get snow here each winter!! I didn't see any snow on the ground here last winter and certainly haven't seen any this winter either. If anyone could give me a heads up on what direction the storms have to come at us here for snow I would most appreciate it. I gather we would still need it to be SE to cause us any problems?

[bpo]

All the locals tell me they get snow here each winter!!

Don't panic: Many places in the SI get snow every winter, but it's usually very little, even by NZ standards. By world standards, it's almost none at all.

[Richard]

Snows every winter here too,wonder if this could be the first year without though,cant see any decent fall over the next day or so.

[Dean.]

Ever thought about moving to Kaitaia Bpo? Away from that demon snow forever! Fine day here, cold SW