Low-level Snow for Canty? - July 18-22

[bpo]

Also is there a good chance that this is metservice covering their ass and over predicting?

The NZ Met Service has been playing CYA ever since they were grotesquely caned for failing to predict the extent of the relatively light snow cover of 12/06/2006.

If what they say eventuates there is going to be a lot of problems as farmers like myself have not had any chance to prepare for such an event. Oh the media is going to have a field day

Yep, that's why they now play CYA... People with zero weather forecasting skills feel entitled to slam the trained professionals at every turn, despite weather forecasting being one of the hardest jobs in the world and most of the critics possessing all the intellectual horsepower of a decomposing jellyfish.

[mikestormchaser]

Does anyone know what the heck happened? How has this gone un-noticed until the last minute? Also is there a good chance that this is metservice covering their ass and over predicting? If what they say eventuates there is going to be a lot of problems as farmers like myself have not had any chance to prepare for such an event. Oh the media is going to have a field day

very unlikely to see snow to as low as they are saying 500mb temps at coldest -28 tomorrow and 850mb temps of -4 at its lowest in the morning.
To me low level snow tomorrow is a no go however if the rain was to fall heavy enough you could get evaporative cooling sernario.
But in saying that it would all be an inland event, nothing for christchurch city

[Orion]

bpo - that June 2006 snowfall was far from "relatively light" in Mid-Canterbury; it caused a lot of damage to power lines and poles, which took up to three weeks to repair; snow damaged many trees, and intense cold killed many mature specimens.

[bpo]

bpo - that June 2006 snowfall was far from "relatively light" in Mid-Canterbury; it caused a lot of damage to power lines and poles, which took up to three weeks to repair; snow damaged many trees, and intense cold killed many mature specimens.

In terms of average snow depths it was not at all unusual. That it was so widespread and "sticky," and brought down lines was not really predictable.

What was predictable were the grossly exaggerated reports from excitable people desperate for attention: 15cm on level ground became 50cm, and many were measuring from drifts on fences and against walls, rather than on open flat areas... Because the number was more exciting that way.

NZMS got kicked in the nuts very unfairly, so now they scream snow the moment a cloud appears on their charts.

[Dean.]

35cm fell in Ashburton in 2006.Rather heavy for an elevation of 100 metres.

[matttbs]

2006 was mental. I have friends who lost their small orchard as the weight of 30cm bought down their trees and wind break fences. That was at sea level. Not at all ordinary

[bpo]

35cm fell in Ashburton in 2006.Rather heavy for an elevation of 100 metres.

There were isolated instances in some locales of above average snowfalls, but overall it was very tame stuff. It was just that it was a much more widespread event than that anticipated by anybody. That, and the "stickiness" which lead to lines damage and some failures of already compromised structures.

(For instance, part of the roof on Meridian Energy's old "Tin Sheds" in Twizel gave way, but the truss in that section was known to have been broken for years. MEL just never bothered to fix it. This was a recurring theme across the region.)

But NZMS being hauled through a kangaroo court of ignorant public opinion has lead them to now always playing Chicken Little and that kid screaming about wolves. Besides being a misuse of a public resource, it's annoying to have to listen to the sugarhyped Ooncers as they freak out about the coming mega-snowfall forecast by the Met Service.

[Razor]

Don't feed the trolls people

[Talbotm]

I must say i didnt see this coming but clearly the M/S have seen something. I was too busy looking at next week. This is how people get caught as some people will have gone to bed before anyone put out an update like the 830pm M/S update so i hope that nothing too bad hits and they are able to move enough stock in the morning. I know ill be up early to get through my work by lunchtime. I see the moisture predictions are for 50-60mm which if i got my maths right it could mean alot more than just 15cm like they are suggesting. I dont expect 50cm or anything but may 25 i would have thought may be snow fall?? Thoughts people??

[Dean.]

Upper level dynamics is what Metservice told me today.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Assume the worst. Get stock moved to sheltered areas.
As Rennee said on the weather on TVOne , using the Jim Hickey expression
"Fill up the wood-box"

...but then in modern houses you might want to say, "Turn Up the Heatpump" ..

....but then what if the power goes off???

[Dean.]

CWU caught up following Metservice's warning as they did in this mornings change of forecasts.
Not that their cult following realise this........

[melja]

The inside word nice.
Yeah took CWU 30min to do a turnaround just after there last update of the night.

[matttbs]

I think the moderators should change the name to this thread

[tich]

And to think that until this morning, I thought Friday would be fine in Chch.

[Nev]

I think the moderators should change the name to this thread

Done… for now?

[Storm Struck]

To be honest when I looked at the maps of the occluded front I did wonder if there could be some kind of advective reaction, not to those levels but 400-500m where potentially a good 10-15cm could fall on Banks Peninnsula.
I guess we will only know come tomorrow

[NZstorm]

GFS forecast sounding for Christchurch for later today. Notice the cooling occurring in the lower levels which can bring the snow level down. Thickness is 543. Upper levels are saturated.

[Manukau heads obs]

BPO, as per the frozen song, Let it go

[Razor]

Is currently 1.1 degrees celcius in town with rain falling from an elevated could base. No wind. Extremely cold rain, but no sign of sleet or white stuff on the Port Hills

[Orion]

1.1 degrees here also, surprising as it didn't feel that cold when I was busy outdoors.
High overcast, dry at the moment.

[mikestormchaser]

Very cold with light rain in city. No sign of sleet..yet

[Roseo]

I drove over port hills this morning,around 8am, and was sleeting then.

[mikestormchaser]

Actually abit of sleet now.

[Talbotm]

Snowing in Darfield/Sheffield/Kirwee. Have just driven through curently 0deg in Sheffield.
Looks like snowing to about 150m and settling above 200m at the moment. Metservice may be on the money with this.