Low-level Snow for Canty? - July 18-22

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Talbotm
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Low-level Snow for Canty? - July 18-22

Unread post by Talbotm »

Just wanting to see what peoples thoughts are about the strong southerly coming up Sunday through to Tuesday. Going off some maps around 1800hrs Monday night the isobar lines are direct to the Antarctic plus there is some reasonable moisture. From what i can see this would put the snow level around sea level in canterbury or close too it. I think with the cold air starting Sunday night and almost a second wave monday arvo the the snow level would already be around the 300 - 400m but with a colder surge i can see snow lower. Maps can and do change but from what it shows at the moment it could be quite significant if the maps stay the same.

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... si&tim=126
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by melja »

Looks ok at this stage but it will change.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Storm Struck »

Its been on the models for quite a few days now, and even though this winter's trend seems to show something interesting on the models then it buggers off I think this one will hold true.
By looking at how far south the air is being dragged up from, and a more straight southerly flow we should be looking at a reasonable settling to sea level.
Current modelling is down to 523 THK at lowest which is good enough, and the 850mb is running in at -5C to -6C .
Here's hoping eh :D
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Definitely a wintry blast on the way. Could be 300m.
Southland, Banks Peninsula and central North Island look the best candidates for heavy falls at this early stage.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Monday definately something to keep eye on indeed! :) i briefly had a glance at some models today, and saw something that could be of interest!
Also taking note of what looks like a wee low coming down from north, if this happens to tilt more southwards things will be more interesting
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Dean. »

Chain shower coastal set up,good for areas Rakaia north,weather models had the low further south earlier in the week.Pity it didn't stick 0_o
Last edited by Dean. on Wed 16/07/2014 20:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by melja »

I find NZstorm is often right so at 300m Talbotm you will be in the zone.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by spwill »

GFS shows some particularly cold upper level air on Monday which is always a good sign if you want snow from these cold systems but it is still 4/5 days out, coldest air might end up out to the east.

Maximum sunshine here last two days, makes a nice change from last week.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Talbotm »

Fingers crossed the maps keep with the straight line isobars to the antarctic which is a critical part for the very cold air and any chance of sea level snow.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Bradley »

I might be missing something but with 850hpa temps of around -5C which is the same as todays system which only delivered settled snow down to 450m asl in Canterbury, how will sunday/Mondays be any different?
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Dean. »

Talbotm wrote:Fingers crossed the maps keep with the straight line isobars to the antarctic which is a critical part for the very cold air and any chance of sea level snow.
Moisture might be a problem for you though,apart from the initial wave all action will be out east.Though this could change :-)
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Talbotm »

https://www.crt.co.nz/RegionWeather/?We ... goryId=254

I must say its been awhile since i have seen a week long forecast saying snow to 200 - 300m for the week such as the forecast on the CRT site from tony.
Talbotm
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Talbotm »

Yea the moisture could be an issue at the mo its looks to just stop short of coming right up but it will change and i guess we will wait with bated breath to see which way it goes it has the potential to turn into something much more significant or just another overstated storm. Theres also that moiture coming down from up north imagine if that keeps coming down. Still too many unknowns at this stage but heres hoping. Plenty cold enough i think.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by melja »

Remember what a SW does here in Canterbury _b
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Bradley »

Going by current models it doesn't even look cold enough to snow down to 500m asl, a very average short-lived cold front at this point...
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by melja »

M/S getting carried away :-w
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by shovelopikis »

Talbotm wrote:Fingers crossed the maps keep with the straight line isobars to the antarctic which is a critical part for the very cold air and any chance of sea level snow.
canterbury never gets a good blast though unless it tends towards sou'east

last two major north canterbury dumpings were sou'east driven
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by bpo »

melja wrote:M/S getting carried away :-w
The MS's slogan since 2006: "6/12: Never Forget!"
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Storm Struck »

shovelopikis wrote:
Talbotm wrote:Fingers crossed the maps keep with the straight line isobars to the antarctic which is a critical part for the very cold air and any chance of sea level snow.
canterbury never gets a good blast though unless it tends towards sou'east

last two major north canterbury dumpings were sou'east driven
For inland areas and high country yes, but not Christchurch or other coastal parts its very rare you will get snow to sea level in a SE flow as it is normally warmer on the coast but colder inland as the precipitation builds heavier there and drops the freezing level.
Snow to sea level is best in a S-SW flow or straight southerly, Monday is SW but Tuesday/ Wednesday looks S-SW with the chain shower line set up through ellesmere north.
Numbers have come up but they are up and down quite a bit at the moment, so we wont really know until the weekend.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by matttbs »

What the heck is going on? Metservice just issued a heavy snow warning for tomorrow morning?!???? Snow to 200m.

"SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 8:51 pm 17-Jul-2014
Snow in Canterbury Friday becoming heavy about higher parts of the Plains and foothills
A front is expected to approach the South Island from the east during Friday. A moist southeast flow ahead of the front is expected to bring snow to the Canterbury foothills on Friday and Saturday, and is likely to be heavy at times with snow lowering to 200 metres on the Plains. The heaviest snow is likely between Oxford and Geraldine where 15cm of snow could accumlate down to about 300 metres from late morning to Friday night.

Note, above 500 metres 20cm of snow or more could accumulate during the same period, while snow flurries are possible down to 100 metres at times on the Plains.

This snow has the potential to cause significant disruption, especially to people travelling through the region. Cold conditions may also cause stress in stock and other animals.

HEAVY SNOW WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Canterbury from Oxford to Geraldine
FORECAST
Snow should lower to 200 metres in some places late Fridaymorning with significnat snow accumulating above 300 metres from early afternoon. In the 12 hours from midday to midnight Friday, 15cm of snow of snow is expected to accumulate. Note, above 500 metres 20cm of snow or more could accumulate during the same period."
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by melja »

That will catch CWU out, they have no mention of any of that in there latest update but im sure they will the leader soon ;)
Heavy rain in the mix to with the watch.
Rain here now and only 3.6C.
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by matttbs »

Does anyone know what the heck happened? How has this gone un-noticed until the last minute? Also is there a good chance that this is metservice covering their ass and over predicting? If what they say eventuates there is going to be a lot of problems as farmers like myself have not had any chance to prepare for such an event. Oh the media is going to have a field day
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by spwill »

The latest GFS takes rain inland, there is low level cold air in place. See if the rain model is correct tomorrow :-)
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by Bradley »

If this pans out it will throw all the models predictions out the window, even Windguru which is fantastic for predicting the snowline is only saying snow down to 500-600m at its lowest tomorrow!!
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Re: Sunday 20 - Tue 22 Cold southerly weather

Unread post by melja »

Yes it did cross my mind that a warning was issued at 9pm the night before a possible major snow event and that wont go down well at all with farming folk. 2006 anyone :-k
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