Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

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Talbotm
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Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Talbotm »

I have noticed a abnormally large area of cold air in the southern ocean. Doesnt look to effect NZ till about this weekend. Looks like Aussie going to be cold at the very least.
:lol:
mikestormchaser
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

I see some potential there talbotm, looks to be a low crossing down from north about the same day to, something to keep eye on!
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Talbotm
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Talbotm »

Cheers Mike. Wasn't sure to put it up as a topic but i havn't seen such a wide area of cold polar air this winter. It has the potential to turn into something quite big. Its along way off but definitely one to watch. I see metservice have made a small line at the bottom of there severe weather page just letting people know they have seen it.
spwill
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by spwill »

Tasmania looks the spot for some wintry showers later in the week, not looking like much in the way of wintry weather for NZ at the moment. A slow moving High out to the east of NZ for much of the week weakening the incoming cold system
Last edited by spwill on Mon 28/07/2014 20:11, edited 1 time in total.
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Storm Struck
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Storm Struck »

A very large polar belt as you say, which is hitting the west coast of both islands for most of the week bringing warmer than normal temperatures out east and a big melt for eastern slopes.
The Southern Alps and high country could see some big gusts this week 150+kmh, especially because it looks like the isobars will be running parallel across the Alps.
But yes Sunday all be it brief could be some low level snow there.
Canterbury, home of good rugby and severe storms
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by spwill »

Yes the warm side of the system is active for NZ in the squash zone between the eastern High and the South Tasman low
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Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by jamie »

That high over Aussie will be huge!!!
Manukau heads obs
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

yeah, a big squeeze in the westerlies if going to develop
will be huge swell for south tasman
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by spwill »

Upper South Island high country might be the place for some snow at the weekend, looks like cold air and rain in the weather mix for NZ this weekend.
melja
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by melja »

Canterbury looks very warm on Saturday.
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by spwill »

The chilly air is showing up over the SI on Sunday, a big temperature/dewpoint contrast across NZ on Sunday, Kaitaia and Invercargill under very different airmasses. :-)
melja
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by melja »

Might be of tramping to the the Magdalen hut in the lewis pass this weekend so could be interesting with the hut at around 750m asl.
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by matttbs »

Latest gfs has doubled moisture for my area from fri - sat. Around 65mm now and about 15mm is in the 530THK or less so could see a splash of snow. Interesting seeing as cold airmass isn't here until Sunday..? Will wait and see I guess
Auckland & Tauranga
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Razor »

melja wrote:Might be of tramping to the the Magdalen hut in the lewis pass this weekend so could be interesting with the hut at around 750m asl.
If a big snowfall is immiment either delay your trip or plan to stay in the hut a while- it can fall in huge dumps there in the right conditions
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by melja »

Yeah it was over knee deep last year when we were there and waist deep in places in the three mile hut valley as well, makes for hard going :D
Talbotm
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Talbotm »

Its is certainly messy in the southern Ocean over the weekend. Sun/Mon colder with good moisture. I wonder what the chances are of that colder air under cutting the warmer air/moisture. I have a seen similar setup awhile ago and we had some good snowfalls to fairly low levels. Certainly an interesting setup. I see met service have still got a mention of the potential for heavy snow on there Outlook. Shows they are not sure what will happen and keeping there eyes on it.
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Bradley »

Models are flip-flopping all over the shop throwing up 850hpa temps ranging from -4C to -7C late Sunday/early Monday. At present I would guess snow down to 200-300m asl...
Talbotm
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Talbotm »

Yea i agree Bradley same as what i was thinking and with some reasonable moisture could be some good snow falls around.
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by matttbs »

Gfs stepped moisture up to 98mm for my area now, must be in for some significant spill over from the west
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Bradley »

Could be something quite big for you Talbot, unlike the last few events this one seems to be more of an inland event...
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

What cold air this week?
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Dean. »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:What cold air this week?
Sunday onwards looking at the latest GFS...next week :-)
tich
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by tich »

End of July/beginning of August 2014 - prolonged period of nor'westers over SI. 2014, not the same period of time in 1975 repeated.
melja
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by melja »

Weather maps look much the same as August 1 1975 :-k
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Re: Sub Antarctic Mass of cold air This week.

Unread post by Orion »

melja wrote:Weather maps look much the same as August 1 1975 :-k
I shall watch the system's progress with interest...
0_o
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