General August weather

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 17/08/2014 08:40

This weather system mid week is looking unstable for the upper half of the North Island with some moist air(dp15C) and coldish upper levels (500mb-21C).

Certainly looking like a brief heavy rain set up for Coromandal Peninsula/western Bay of Plenty with 100mm possible in the ranges.

GFS output for midnight Tuesday. Decent looking North Tasman jet 300mb.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 17/08/2014 08:57

What are your thoughts for heavy snow for Central north Island Steven? I'm heading down Wednesday night for a 5 day weekend. I have been watching this system get colder each run but I'm not sure it's cold enough for snow to Ohakune etc. Whakapapa should do well out of this system.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 17/08/2014 09:07

GFS has been showing a huge anticyclone next weekend, around 1038 hPa!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 17/08/2014 09:15

jamie wrote:What are your thoughts for heavy snow for Central north Island Steven? I'm heading down Wednesday night for a 5 day weekend. I have been watching this system get colder each run but I'm not sure it's cold enough for snow to Ohakune etc. Whakapapa should do well out of this system.

This system will lift the freezing levels Wednesday but a drop on Thursday as it moves away. Its not a set up that will produce snow at Ohakune and keep you fingers crossed its more snow than rain up on the slopes. Still 3-4 days out.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 17/08/2014 09:37

Yes, moist air/ instability showing up for the upper NI on Wednesday. Tasman Sea lows have been rare this Winter.

I think Ruapehu will get rain on its lower slopes Wednesday with snow showers by Thursday

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 17/08/2014 09:43

Yea the wind flow quickly turns south on Thursday but the cold air doesn't arrive until Friday and by then the high is moving in. Wait and see I suppose. Would love for it to dump down while I'm there and then be clear for a few days of fresh snow on blue bird days.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 17/08/2014 20:59

Could see isolated tornadoes with that front early Wednesday in the north (Northland to Auckland across to BOP). The set up has that look to it with moist air, low level directional shear, some instability.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 18/08/2014 12:24

Will watch Wednesday with interest.
A strong anticyclonic influence on NZ weather after Wednesday

Manukau heads obs · Mon 18/08/2014 12:35

A strong anticyclonic influence on NZ weather after Wednesday

yes
been el nino like weather for the last few weeks with strong SW winds.
but a period of easterly type conditions coming...should bring early spring conditions for here

the el nino indicators are not looking good for el nino forming this spring...
looks more like more of the of same of recent...in between la nina and el nino...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 18/08/2014 13:00

From BOM regarding El Nino
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 18/08/2014 21:36

Not to be sexist, it just shows you the women's influence on the weather

No male dominance evolving within the weather, if so, not very significant?
C'mon, you guys.
Get out there. show your dominance?

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Tue 19/08/2014 07:05

Unstable airmass crossing upper half of North Island tomorrow. 500mb-21C, dewpoints 13-14C. Thunder risk for Auckland City looks to be in the 40% category to me.

Looks like S or SE flow for later this week/weekend which gives Auckland blue dome skies. Long range models showing the high being quite persistent.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 19/08/2014 10:35

Snow on Thursday?

petem8nz · Unread post by **petem8nz** » Tue 19/08/2014 11:24

TonyT wrote:Snow on Thursday?

I noticed the forecast changed hope fully it stays above 400 in Hanmer for our wedding on Thursday.

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Tue 19/08/2014 11:45

Well, perfect place and perfect excuse to be stuck for a few nights...

It might be a nice day for a white wedding...

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 19/08/2014 11:46

There is low level cold air eastern SI Thursday but how much precipitation will there be ?

Upper levels are cold next week, perhaps some early season afternoon heat showers over parts of the NI, a long way out though

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 19/08/2014 11:47

spwill wrote:Upper levels are cold next week, perhaps some early season afternoon heat showers over parts of the NI, a long way out though

I was thinking this yesterday. But then i thought with this weather pattern we will be getting frosts here so heating wont be all that good, add fog to the mix and it could be poor heating.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Tue 19/08/2014 11:50

jamie wrote: I was thinking this yesterday. But then i thought with this weather pattern we will be getting frosts here so heating wont be all that good, add fog to the mix and it could be poor heating.

I think it will come down to moisture, upper levels are very cold next but next week is a long way out

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 19/08/2014 12:40

No more snow talk pleeeaaase.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 19/08/2014 13:08

spwill wrote:I think it will come down to moisture, upper levels are very cold next but next week is a long way out

Yea if there is more moisture in the air it gives more chance of thick long lasting fog here so it becomes detrimental. Perhaps not the same for you guys in Auckland.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Tue 19/08/2014 13:10

I see metservice now have snow showers to 600m on Thursday evening for waiouru. 2 days ago they had none. Yesterday was 1000m.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 19/08/2014 13:54

melja wrote:No more snow talk pleeeaaase.

It might be best if you just decide what we can and can't talk about from now on? Won't be much of a forum but at least we won't annoy you with our snow talk

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Tue 19/08/2014 17:11

I dont mind snow talk when there is something to talk about but the countless pages of dribble when most of it is just wish full thinking does make it hard going.
Some people let there joy and excitement over snow cloud there other wise good judgement sometimes.

Think Tony is way of the mark with his sleety showers for Thursday

Freezing level looks to be around 800m.

CWUweather · Unread post by **CWUweather** » Tue 19/08/2014 17:39

melja wrote:I dont mind snow talk when there is something to talk about but the countless pages of dribble when most of it is just wish full thinking does make it hard going.
Some people let there joy and excitement over snow cloud there other wise good judgement sometimes.

Think Tony is way of the mark with his sleety showers for Thursday
Freezing level looks to be around 800m.

Remember the advection element is there too though...
But yes I tend to agree with you, I would be thinking snow level will be around 400m, but moisture doesn't look great so won't be much.

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Tue 19/08/2014 19:33

http://www.ready.noaa.gov/readyout/44393524_metgram.gif

This is not even worth opening my mouth for snow talk. I would love for a week more of this sun and mild temperatures so the ground may get a chance to dry and maybe juuuust maybe my lawns can have a shot at living. Metservice are pretty spot in with their rural outlook for canty, southerlies at first then settled. Nothing on the horizon apart from rediculously early xmas ads around the start of september

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