Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

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Talbotm
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Talbotm »

What are the chances for sea level snow around Canterbury this Friday early hours?? I think theres a good chance as the latest models are showing the very cold air kicking almost more southerly. Also the temps for this snap look really cold.
I also see next week theres something else brewing which Tony has already picked up.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Razor »

Very little chance from what I can see for sea level. 300-400m more likely. and very little at that in terms of moisture.

Article in the Press today bemoanign the snow situation for the ski fields. Disasterous for them, great for the rest of us
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

im not so sure razor.. i see it lower then 3 to 400m, moisture not there though, need it to swing more SSW.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by matttbs »

Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by melja »

It can be as cold as it wants but if there is mostly clear sky or little moisture then nothings going to happen to sea level and any other level for that matter :lol:
I here the same old comments over and over " it just needs to be more to the S-SSW" but its not, the whole system is a Westerly based roaring forties one for the most part.
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by jamie »

matttbs wrote:Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
No! How there be a good chance of sea level snow. Your choosing to look at just the temp and exclude the moisture factor.

Reality is there is very little chance due to what you outlined, no moisture. Why say there is a good chance when in fact there isn't.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

jamie wrote:
matttbs wrote:Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
No! How there be a good chance of sea level snow. Your choosing to look at just the temp and exclude the moisture factor.

Reality is there is very little chance due to what you outlined, no moisture. Why say there is a good chance when in fact there isn't.
What?
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Haven't checked the models yet but it looks likely to be a one off event with fine weather this WE.
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by jamie »

What?[/quote]

Well when assessing risk you need to look at all the factors. Moisture is needed for snow. Without moisture the risk is zero. Like others have outlined it can be -20 and it still won't snow without moisture. So why say that because it's cold enough to snow there is a good chance of sea level snow...there is no moisture so there chance is very small.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by matttbs »

jamie wrote:
matttbs wrote:Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
No! How there be a good chance of sea level snow. Your choosing to look at just the temp and exclude the moisture factor.

Reality is there is very little chance due to what you outlined, no moisture. Why say there is a good chance when in fact there isn't.
Because there is sonny jim. I may not be a pro but going off that model for one of my properties lat and long, there IS a chance as the temps are in the zone for sea level snow and there is moisture, just not that much. Don't get so worked up
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Lawrence »

Well the gfs charts I am looking at seems to have plenty of moisture.
On the last few runs that low that develops to the east accentuates sea level event with thickness to 522 is getting closer to the eastern sea board.
Wind looks pretty brisk with the event with several bands.
But we do get a sheltering effect in Canterbury unless the low develops closer to the coast and swings the isobars more SSE / SE.
We shall see. :-k
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by jamie »

You said earlier there was a "very good chance of sea level snow" but then contradicted yourself by saying there isn't the moisture.

All I'm pointing out is that your risk assessment is skewed.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Razor »

Yeah I'll stick to my view, nothing to see here, unless you are at sea :wave:
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by matttbs »

Currently snowing in mayfield
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Lawrence »

Looking like a significant snow event :-k
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by melja »

For some areas but not Chch.
Going over arthur's pass to the coast on friday night but looks like the weather may stop that as it did to my tramping last weekend :mad:
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by TonyT »

Lawrence wrote:Looking like a significant snow event :-k
Thats the one to focus on.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by melja »

TonyT wrote:
Lawrence wrote:Looking like a significant snow event :-k
Thats the one to focus on.
Dont know how to take that comment :-k
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by tich »

matttbs wrote:Currently snowing in mayfield
Dusting overnight on Mt Herbert.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by TonyT »

melja wrote: Dont know how to take that comment :-k
Try this. Friday nah, Monday yeah
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by melja »

Cool, thanks Tony.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by snowykiwi »

Many thanks Tony, so us Canterbury people need to look out for Monday then? Lovely driving inland this morning, the Alps were very picturesque with the snow way down on the foothills. My colleagues at Methven told me they had snow there first thing this morning. Southerly gale blew through Rakaia about 4am this morning. Nice to have a clear day to enjoy.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

TonyT wrote:
melja wrote: Dont know how to take that comment :-k
Try this. Friday nah, Monday yeah
Tony please don't do that to me, I am on the Gold Coast from Saturday until tuesday night, I will seriously lose it if it snows while I'm away :lol:
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

TonyT wrote:
melja wrote: Dont know how to take that comment :-k
Try this. Friday nah, Monday yeah
Could only be a warm advective event your referring to if it's snow down to or near sea level, the temperatures at 850hpa on Monday night are not cold enough for anything else!
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by TonyT »

Bradley wrote:Tony please don't do that to me, I am on the Gold Coast from Saturday until tuesday night, I will seriously lose it if it snows while I'm away :lol:
Should still be some at your place on Tuesday night.
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