Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
What are the chances for sea level snow around Canterbury this Friday early hours?? I think theres a good chance as the latest models are showing the very cold air kicking almost more southerly. Also the temps for this snap look really cold.
I also see next week theres something else brewing which Tony has already picked up.
I also see next week theres something else brewing which Tony has already picked up.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Very little chance from what I can see for sea level. 300-400m more likely. and very little at that in terms of moisture.
Article in the Press today bemoanign the snow situation for the ski fields. Disasterous for them, great for the rest of us
Article in the Press today bemoanign the snow situation for the ski fields. Disasterous for them, great for the rest of us
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
im not so sure razor.. i see it lower then 3 to 400m, moisture not there though, need it to swing more SSW.
Mike
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
Auckland & Tauranga
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
It can be as cold as it wants but if there is mostly clear sky or little moisture then nothings going to happen to sea level and any other level for that matter
I here the same old comments over and over " it just needs to be more to the S-SSW" but its not, the whole system is a Westerly based roaring forties one for the most part.
I here the same old comments over and over " it just needs to be more to the S-SSW" but its not, the whole system is a Westerly based roaring forties one for the most part.
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
No! How there be a good chance of sea level snow. Your choosing to look at just the temp and exclude the moisture factor.matttbs wrote:Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
Reality is there is very little chance due to what you outlined, no moisture. Why say there is a good chance when in fact there isn't.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
What?jamie wrote:No! How there be a good chance of sea level snow. Your choosing to look at just the temp and exclude the moisture factor.matttbs wrote:Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
Reality is there is very little chance due to what you outlined, no moisture. Why say there is a good chance when in fact there isn't.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Haven't checked the models yet but it looks likely to be a one off event with fine weather this WE.
JohnGaul
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
What?[/quote]
Well when assessing risk you need to look at all the factors. Moisture is needed for snow. Without moisture the risk is zero. Like others have outlined it can be -20 and it still won't snow without moisture. So why say that because it's cold enough to snow there is a good chance of sea level snow...there is no moisture so there chance is very small.
Well when assessing risk you need to look at all the factors. Moisture is needed for snow. Without moisture the risk is zero. Like others have outlined it can be -20 and it still won't snow without moisture. So why say that because it's cold enough to snow there is a good chance of sea level snow...there is no moisture so there chance is very small.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Because there is sonny jim. I may not be a pro but going off that model for one of my properties lat and long, there IS a chance as the temps are in the zone for sea level snow and there is moisture, just not that much. Don't get so worked upjamie wrote:No! How there be a good chance of sea level snow. Your choosing to look at just the temp and exclude the moisture factor.matttbs wrote:Going off the latest model there is a very good chance of sea level snow as th THK is below 520 and the 850mb temps are quite cold also BUT as others have said there is just not much in the way of moisture. Don't get excited about this event
Reality is there is very little chance due to what you outlined, no moisture. Why say there is a good chance when in fact there isn't.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Well the gfs charts I am looking at seems to have plenty of moisture.
On the last few runs that low that develops to the east accentuates sea level event with thickness to 522 is getting closer to the eastern sea board.
Wind looks pretty brisk with the event with several bands.
But we do get a sheltering effect in Canterbury unless the low develops closer to the coast and swings the isobars more SSE / SE.
We shall see.
On the last few runs that low that develops to the east accentuates sea level event with thickness to 522 is getting closer to the eastern sea board.
Wind looks pretty brisk with the event with several bands.
But we do get a sheltering effect in Canterbury unless the low develops closer to the coast and swings the isobars more SSE / SE.
We shall see.
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Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
You said earlier there was a "very good chance of sea level snow" but then contradicted yourself by saying there isn't the moisture.
All I'm pointing out is that your risk assessment is skewed.
All I'm pointing out is that your risk assessment is skewed.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Yeah I'll stick to my view, nothing to see here, unless you are at sea
Christchurch Rocks
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Currently snowing in mayfield
Auckland & Tauranga
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Looking like a significant snow event
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
For some areas but not Chch.
Going over arthur's pass to the coast on friday night but looks like the weather may stop that as it did to my tramping last weekend
Going over arthur's pass to the coast on friday night but looks like the weather may stop that as it did to my tramping last weekend
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Thats the one to focus on.Lawrence wrote:Looking like a significant snow event
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Dont know how to take that commentTonyT wrote:Thats the one to focus on.Lawrence wrote:Looking like a significant snow event
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Dusting overnight on Mt Herbert.matttbs wrote:Currently snowing in mayfield
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Try this. Friday nah, Monday yeahmelja wrote: Dont know how to take that comment
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Many thanks Tony, so us Canterbury people need to look out for Monday then? Lovely driving inland this morning, the Alps were very picturesque with the snow way down on the foothills. My colleagues at Methven told me they had snow there first thing this morning. Southerly gale blew through Rakaia about 4am this morning. Nice to have a clear day to enjoy.
Rakaia, 118asl.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Tony please don't do that to me, I am on the Gold Coast from Saturday until tuesday night, I will seriously lose it if it snows while I'm awayTonyT wrote:Try this. Friday nah, Monday yeahmelja wrote: Dont know how to take that comment
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Could only be a warm advective event your referring to if it's snow down to or near sea level, the temperatures at 850hpa on Monday night are not cold enough for anything else!TonyT wrote:Try this. Friday nah, Monday yeahmelja wrote: Dont know how to take that comment
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week
Should still be some at your place on Tuesday night.Bradley wrote:Tony please don't do that to me, I am on the Gold Coast from Saturday until tuesday night, I will seriously lose it if it snows while I'm away