Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

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TonyT
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by TonyT »

Bradley wrote: Could only be a warm advective event your referring to if it's snow down to or near sea level, the temperatures at 850hpa on Monday night are not cold enough for anything else!
Dont get too hung up on the timing at this stage. Monday/Tuesday ish
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

With some of the coldest air not arriving until Tuesday morning that could be spot on! Windguru not really liking monday/Tuesday though, it's saying the snowline will be more like 300-400m asl...
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by TonyT »

Bradley wrote:With some of the coldest air not arriving until Tuesday morning that could be spot on! Windguru not really liking monday/Tuesday though, it's saying the snowline will be more like 300-400m asl...
Correct. If I recall you're at about 350m?
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

I was around that mate but now I'm in West Melton so around 100m asl, can make a huge difference that 200m as I'm sure you would agree between a small dusting and a big dump!
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by melja »

I have changed my mind, i think i will see snow at the end of the week :-k
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by matttbs »

melja wrote:I have changed my mind, i think i will see snow at the end of the week :-k
At your place? Or Arthur's pass
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by melja »

Rangiora, looks to be just enough moisture to give a cm or 2 if the cold air comes in quick but hay its just a feeling i have :lol:
Not sure on next week tho but Tony sure has a feeling :-k
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

melja wrote:Rangiora, looks to be just enough moisture to give a cm or 2 if the cold air comes in quick but hay its just a feeling i have :lol:
Not sure on next week tho but Tony sure has a feeling :-k
Tony DOES have a knack at seeing certain trends in Models that the rest of us don't :mrgreen:
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Friday morning does look cold, the latest thickness levels at 500mb are at 519 but only for a very brief period of time before rising..
Hail and sleet showers definately to sea level.. snow to 1-200m im picking.
There is a little bit of precipitation but not as much as one would like, mind you the models dont always show everything, such as the depth of the CBs but i guess you pro's would have some idea of that ;)
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

What the hell!? Windguru now has the snowline for tuesday night down to sea level!!
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Talbotm »

I see what tony is saying. Could be quite a severe event. Should get inland canterbury too which the ski fields will like. Im feeling a snow day coming on lol.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by snowykiwi »

So is anyone seeing a consistent trend in the models for Friday in respects to snow level or Monday/Tuesday next week? Or are the models flipping around? I think in Rakaia we are about 100m above sea level. Was interesting talking to my colleagues again this afternoon in Methven, one still had snow on his grass in the shade after 10am this morning.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by NZstorm »

There could be a lightning strike or two in coastal Canterbury on Friday given the 500mb -38C!
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

NZstorm wrote:There could be a lightning strike or two in coastal Canterbury on Friday given the 500mb -38C!
I was actually thinking the same nzstorm! and given the warm few days wev had, particulary late last week the land may just have enough omph!!
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Karliosis »

GFS seems to have been gradually trending colder for the Canterbury area. THK drops as low as 518, and maintains around 520 or so for 12 hours. 850hPa temps quite low too. Should be interesting...
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Orion »

What a scarlet sky this morning!
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by melja »

Im not sure what Tony is seeing for mon-tue but im not seeing anything of note but he must see something to make such a call on here.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Ice Maiden »

Leading edge of the first front has just hit Dunedin, wind direction changed with gusto! and temp dropped 4 degrees in the last 10 mins or so :-)
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by TonyT »

melja wrote:Im not sure what Tony is seeing for mon-tue but im not seeing anything of note but he must see something to make such a call on here.
It does look to be backing off a bit now. Not quite as cold. While tomorrow is looking even colder.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by CWUweather »

TonyT wrote:
melja wrote:Im not sure what Tony is seeing for mon-tue but im not seeing anything of note but he must see something to make such a call on here.
It does look to be backing off a bit now. Not quite as cold. While tomorrow is looking even colder.
Yes, last I checked the THK over ChCh was 518 tomorrow morning, hopefully will be a decent chain shower setup... could potentially be relatively disruptive.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

Well the last cold front a few weeks ago was predicted to turn more southerly and didn't, perhaps tomorrow's might even though it isn't predicted too, strange thing this weather lol
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Bradley »

TonyT wrote:
melja wrote:Im not sure what Tony is seeing for mon-tue but im not seeing anything of note but he must see something to make such a call on here.
It does look to be backing off a bit now. Not quite as cold. While tomorrow is looking even colder.
Tony just wondering if you think the ACCESS model used by the BOM or the GFS model is more reliable for forecasting 850hpa temps?
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by matttbs »

The gfs for next Monday/Tuesday has picked up again, not so much in temp but in moisture. I'm thinking snow to 3-400m
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by TonyT »

Bradley wrote:Tony just wondering if you think the ACCESS model used by the BOM or the GFS model is more reliable for forecasting 850hpa temps?
They both have their good days and bad days... :mrgreen: Best not to put too much weight on either of them individually.
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Re: Potential sea level snow 7/8th Plus low snow next week

Unread post by Orion »

Ice Maiden wrote:Leading edge of the first front has just hit Dunedin, wind direction changed with gusto! and temp dropped 4 degrees in the last 10 mins or so :-)
Wind-change has just rushed through here - a quick trip from Dunedin!
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