General September Weather

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 27/08/2014 11:35

I see MetService are predicting a wetter than normal September for the entire North Island and the top of the South Island, but relatively dry for Southland and Otago.

Temps are also likely to be cooler for Southland, Otago and eastern areas of both Islands, but warmer for the top half of the North Island, while close to normal elsewhere.

'Looking ahead into September' - MetService News

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Wed 27/08/2014 12:55

Didnt the woman who wrote that work for NIWA? i just cant get my head around 2 govt funded climate agency's doing the same thing.
Niwa are strongly moving to short range forecastes and MS are trying to do climate outlooks, i just see this as a huge waste of money

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Wed 27/08/2014 13:58

Yes, Georgina Griffiths used to be NIWA's spokesperson. However, being a qualified meteorologist, she probably finds working for MetService more fulfilling than being a climate researcher for NIWA.

I think MetService's single monthly forecasts are more likely based on long-term weather-models, rather than overall climate-models.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Wed 27/08/2014 18:33

That looks likely to be very La Nina type of forecast which is sad for us thunderstorm lovers in the East SI who are longing for a good return to El Nino

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Wed 27/08/2014 22:27

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:That looks likely to be very La Nina type of forecast which is sad for us thunderstorm lovers in the East SI who are longing for a good return to El Nino

I think that should apply to all NZ Thunderstorm Lovers..... La Nina is/was useless for decent Storms anywhere in NZ.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Thu 28/08/2014 06:24

What pattern (El or La) was the January/February of 2010? That had great storms for us.

Manukau heads obs · Thu 28/08/2014 06:59

Amazing to be talking historicaly about august 4 days before august ends
Seems to be a race almost with salinger

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Thu 28/08/2014 07:20

I hope that forecast is dead wrong. I'm sick of the extra cloud and rain we have generally had here in the last 4 years.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Thu 28/08/2014 08:47

jamie wrote:What pattern (El or La) was the January/February of 2010? That had great storms for us.

That was a weak El Nino.....

Early September is looking very dynamic according to the models in the Tasman/NZ. Will be very interesting if the pattern in the forecast will continue.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Thu 28/08/2014 09:28

Tony from Blue Skies going for 50-100mm for next Wednesday through to Saturday for Canterbury Plains, I guess we'll know more by Sunday of the chances of that happening but at the moment this looks huge if it comes off!

TonyT · Unread post by **TonyT** » Thu 28/08/2014 09:58

Bradley wrote:Tony from Blue Skies going for 50-100mm for next Wednesday through to Saturday for Canterbury Plains, I guess we'll know more by Sunday of the chances of that happening but at the moment this looks huge if it comes off!

That was yesterday's numbers, back down to a more believable 10-20mm today!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 30/08/2014 09:17

A Tasman low system showing in the models for later next week is something to watch.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 31/08/2014 11:38

Chart for Thursday with further jet stream developments north of the country.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 01/09/2014 06:45

32mm overnight here.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/09/2014 07:02

23mm here
Was needed as was a drier than normal august here

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 01/09/2014 07:36

I recorded 26 mm since 8pm yesterday.

einzack · Unread post by **einzack** » Mon 01/09/2014 07:49

When will the glorious weather end for us on the coast?
Today is our 18th day without rain, and the forecast has nothing until next Monday and that's only showers so may not eventuate.
If we get that far we'd be 25 days of dry weather.
My previous record dry stretch for the month of Augusts was 7 days, and Septembers record is currently a paltry 5 days.

Not only that, it's been warm. Apart from last Monday when it was a bit chilly, max of 13°C, every day in the last 10 days has been 17°C+.
Glorious weather!

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Mon 01/09/2014 08:20

This is cold rain! I thought it was of tropical origin.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/09/2014 08:29

yeah, I was thinking the same thing Jamie
only 9.3c here
I guess originally the airmass originated around the back of the high from a departing southerly
Interesting how the rain has been heavier in the auckland area during the night, when its colder (i.e more of a temperature difference?)
also I guess the falling barometer has helped to cool the airmass
warm frontal rain ...but still only 10c in northland currently too

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 01/09/2014 08:44

Like east coast rain with the cool temp and the low dewpoint, SE wind.
The warmer moist air never made it here, current dewpoint 9C, a couple of days back GFS had the AK dewpoint at 13C for today.

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 01/09/2014 09:53

Rain has mostly cleared Howick now, just spitty/very light rain left. Hoping to see the sun this afternoon...

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 01/09/2014 15:28

It's the coldest September day here in years! I have a max of 11.6C so far.
My previous coldest day for September was 12 Sep 2012, with 12.6C.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/09/2014 15:55

the day is not over yet, it should warm up a bit more yet before midnight...as the rain band finally moves through, but maybe not much more than 12c?
only 11c here
I see it was 15C in Northland this afternoon

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Mon 01/09/2014 16:50

A max of 11C in Grey Lynn today and 48mm at Rickys weather station since midnight.

A historically cold day for Sept.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 01/09/2014 17:17

and another rain band moving in...

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