General September Weather

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NZ Thunderstorm Soc
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Must be warm in the upper to cause today's warm temperatures as the noon analysis doesn't show any warm surface winds or influence. :rolleyes:
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Michael »

its lift over the alps,wouldnt be surprised today is similar.
NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Must be warm in the upper to cause today's warm temperatures as the noon analysis doesn't show any warm surface winds or influence. :rolleyes:
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Re: General September Weather

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Does anyone have any thoughts on a possible warm advective snow event overnight Saturday into Sunday? Looks to be around 10-20mm forecast with 850hpa temps of around -5C over Canterbury for around 12 hours coinciding with the rain? Possible snowline around the 200-300m asl if the conditions are right?
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

Bradley wrote:Does anyone have any thoughts on a possible warm advective snow event overnight Saturday into Sunday? Looks to be around 10-20mm forecast with 850hpa temps of around -5C over Canterbury for around 12 hours coinciding with the rain? Possible snowline around the 200-300m asl if the conditions are right?
I don't see it happening. Winters over, bring on BBQ weather. Been 23deg for the last 3 days now, lovely!
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Heavy snow to 400m so MS are saying late Saturday into Sunday,could do with the prescription.

WNW wind has been rather strong for the last hour or so.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Interesting to see Dan Corbett doing the weather on TV One this evening.
Is he the new "Augie Auer" ? :D :smile:
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General September Weather

Unread post by jamie »

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Interesting to see Dan Corbett doing the weather on TV One this evening.
Is he the new "Augie Auer" ? :D :smile:
I actually enjoyed it. You can tell he knows and understands the weather. Explains how things and moving and changing rather than very simplistic "sunny day there, bit cloudy there" type stuff from Karen and others.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by spwill »

Great to have a meteorologist doing TV weather I reckon
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Re: General September Weather

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He's good hey,all hands
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Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Just returned from an extended trip to Metservice over the last 2 days for MetOcean business. Practically saw everyone in the forecast room.
My name was instantly recognized to my user-name, surprise surprise, lol.
Anyway it was a complete blast, going into detail with John Crouch and Paul Mallinson the Radar indicated tornadoes, bow echos. Since I know the forecasters check this forum fairly frequently, A big thank you to all of you that gave up your time to see me.
Anyway back in Hamilton now, on a pleasant 11 degree morning.
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Unread post by NZstorm »

You have an interesting job Tornado Tim if you get to visit places like Met Service.

Doesn't look like we will get too much rain in Auckland from the next trough. Perhaps we are in a drying trend now?

Looks like a baroclinic type of rainfall set up for the top of the South Island. Chart is 48hr rainfall totals to midnight Sunday.
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General September Weather

Unread post by jamie »

NZstorm wrote:Perhaps we are in a drying trend now?
I bloody hope not! October usually delivers 100+. Strangely November in the past decade has been on par with our driest month. But then December usually delivers around 100. If we go dry now id hope it's a wet cold summer.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Starting to get a good steady rain in the last half hour,so needed.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Hoping the rain will hold off or not move further south so that I could get all the mowing done today.
It did, thankfully.
Now becoming quite cloudy with the South to SW strengthening a bit from the lighter southerlies that we have had all day. :smile:
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

have been some very dry Novembers here in the past..like only a few mm....
one year the old timers will tell you the cows were on once day before xmas...and there was not enough growth to make much hay even
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by David »

Only 3 mm here overnight. Mild low of 14 degrees.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Managed to get 10mm here,not quite enough really.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

I've noticed the southerly change for Thursday/Friday is still building in the models. Been in there for a week now. Temps are quite cold too so could be interesting. Hopefully it hangs in there!
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Just 1mm in Grey lynn overnight. A mild morning on 16C but cloudy.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by Storm Struck »

matttbs wrote:I've noticed the southerly change for Thursday/Friday is still building in the models. Been in there for a week now. Temps are quite cold too so could be interesting. Hopefully it hangs in there!
Looking like Canterbury's first decent storm set up day for the season at this stage, good surface convergence winds from Timaru to Christchurch and cold upper air -32C.
Still a fair way out but I would be saying moderate shot this far out, maybe higher once we get closer _b
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Storm Struck wrote: Looking like Canterbury's first decent storm set up day for the season at this stage,
Possible severe hail set up for Canterbury? Eastern North Island could get a convective risk from this set up as well.
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

Very cold NE or ENE blowing across the region for today.
Warm in the sunshine out of the wind but quite raw when outside. :x
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Some showery rain over Waikato/Auckland this evening that the GFS completely missed. Its elevated convection type rain.
Not often the GFS fails this badly to predict rain!
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Re: General September Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

Getting off topic here but Sydney got to 33C today and 33C forecast again for tomorrow. The difference between NZ and Australia's climate really shows up in spring.
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Unread post by 03Stormchaser »

I expect the wind run today to be quite high here.
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