Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
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For today's weather discussion head to: New Zealand Weather & Climate
- NZstorm
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Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
An upper trough with associated surface low with affect northern NZ next 3 days. Upper air is cool 500mb -21C with surface dps 13-14C, so unstable air.
Looking like thunder over Northland this afternoon with a front. Thunder possibilities over the North Island Friday/Saturday.
I am hoping for some surface heating Friday/Saturday to push up the instability numbers in the Auckland area.
500mb chart for Friday.
Looking like thunder over Northland this afternoon with a front. Thunder possibilities over the North Island Friday/Saturday.
I am hoping for some surface heating Friday/Saturday to push up the instability numbers in the Auckland area.
500mb chart for Friday.
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- Nev
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
I see MS have upgraded this arvo/evening's high-risk from about north of Orewa to Severe…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Thursday 4 Sep 2014
Issued at: 8:32am Thursday 4 Sep 2014
An active front northwest of the North Island containing thunderstorms is forecast to move over Northland this afternoon and evening to reach northern parts of Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula late tonight. Thunderstorms with this front have the potential to bring heavy rain with rates generally 10-25mm/hr.However, for eastern Northland and the far north of Auckland, there is a risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS this afternoon and early evening producing localised downpours exceeding 25mm/hr. Additionally, there is a chance of one or two small tornadoes, especially about and near eastern coasts. A low risk of thunderstorms extends farther south to include the remainder of Auckland and Coromandel tonight.
Behind the front, an active trough is forecast to move over Northland tonight accompanied by heavy showers and a few thunderstorms. These storms may bring further bursts of heavy rain.
No thunderstorms expected over the remainder of the country, but a few showers on the central North Island ranges this afternoon could be heavy.
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Hopefully some surface heating Friday/Sat afternoons and not a cool cloudy rainy mess.
- Nev
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
And MS's Outlook for tomorrow morn…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Noon Friday 5 Sep 2014
Issued at: 10:35am Thursday 4 Sep 2014
An active front near the Auckland region at midnight Thursday is forecast to move southwards over Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty during the morning to lie near Taupo by midday. Behind this front, a number of convective troughs are expected to rotate around a low over the Tasman Sea and onto the upper North Island.
There is a continued high risk of thunderstorms accompanying the front, affecting Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty before dawn. In these areas,localised heavy rain is likely with rates of 10-25mm/hr (or possibly more).Additionally, there is a chance of one or two small tornadoes, especially about and near the coast.
Behind the front over the upper North Island, there is a broad moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms as bands of heavy showers move onto the island from the northwest. These isolated storms may bring brief heavy rain. A lower risk of thunderstorms extends south to include Waitomo and Gisborne.
Elsewhere, no thunderstorms expected Friday morning.
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Just had a stonker of a cell womble past Matauri Bay (at about 1500Hrs)
Dropped 20mm in as many minutes (and some scattered chunky hail) before heading off SW.
Couple of good sharp rumbles emerged from within, but no lightshow.
Dropped 20mm in as many minutes (and some scattered chunky hail) before heading off SW.
Couple of good sharp rumbles emerged from within, but no lightshow.
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
certainly lots of mama cloud here ahead of the front
- NZstorm
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Thanks for the report cbfan.
Auckland managed a few spots of rain from the front. Clearing now.
Auckland managed a few spots of rain from the front. Clearing now.
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
looking forward to intensifying shower activity over western BOP tonight. Usually get NE thunder after 10pm and before 6 am. Fingers crossed ,not a lot of wind with this one which will enhance any thermal activity as the moisture comes ashore and rises.
ttttttttttt
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
I see stuff.co.nz has the news headline about thunderstorms for auckland area this evening
problem is that is based on 9 hour forecasts and the front has weakened alot over the auckland area this evening...
unless it re intensifies....actaully that cell to the west of northland is lightning active now
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/ind ... &page_0=21
problem is that is based on 9 hour forecasts and the front has weakened alot over the auckland area this evening...
unless it re intensifies....actaully that cell to the west of northland is lightning active now
http://www.blitzortung.org/Webpages/ind ... &page_0=21
- Nev
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
MS now only have a moderate risk for BoP early tomorrow morn.treetop wrote:looking forward to intensifying shower activity over western BOP tonight. Usually get NE thunder after 10pm and before 6 am. Fingers crossed ,not a lot of wind with this one which will enhance any thermal activity as the moisture comes ashore and rises.
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
not a lot of red on the radar, still a complex low,where is all the action ? Looks like I will have an uninterupted sleep then
ttttttttttt
- Tornado Tim
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Doesnt need to be red in order for Lightning to occur, echo's are no reflection of a storms overall electrification.treetop wrote:not a lot of red on the radar, still a complex low,where is all the action ? Looks like I will have an uninterupted sleep then
Quite Lightning active west of Northland atm as shown on NZAPStrike
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NZAPStrike.net - NZ Aus Pacific Strike Network
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
A line of heavy showers coming down the west side of Northland, lightning off shore
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
that CB to the west of northland might end up still active to the west of here by the morning
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
very heavy rain at one stage here.
Warm night too
Warm night too
- NZstorm
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
My rainfall reading overnight was 29mm, not 19mm. 10mm reading error!Some brief very heavy showers here this morning too with 19mm recorded overnight.
Last edited by NZstorm on Fri 05/09/2014 11:06, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
nothing in Tauranga yet, would have expected heavy showers/storms by now from the NE rather than a band of rain coming in from the NW, odd considering the situation. Maybe as the low moves east and fills there will be more widespread storms ?
ttttttttttt
- NZstorm
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Just a note on Saturdays weather.
We will still be under the influence of the upper trough so heavy showers/thunder still on the cards for Auckland/Northland.
500mb chart for Saturday midday.
We will still be under the influence of the upper trough so heavy showers/thunder still on the cards for Auckland/Northland.
500mb chart for Saturday midday.
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- David
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Had a brief downpour here as well around 4.45am, it woke me up. We got 12 mm since 4pm yesterday.
- Nev
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Yes, nice little downpour this morn.
21.5mm here since late arvo, almost as much as Grey Lynn's 23.4mm.
Btw, have you moved back to Kaukapakapa now?
21.5mm here since late arvo, almost as much as Grey Lynn's 23.4mm.
Looks like you must have got the death throes of that offshore cell early this morn.At 2:52am Lincolnian wrote:Long rumbling thunder heard here.
Btw, have you moved back to Kaukapakapa now?
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Isolated storms near Ak west coast and the outer Gulf in the early hrs.
- Nev
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Sparking up east of Coromandel atm, so BoP might be in luck later
Akld also looking good this arvo in this morn's update for today…
Akld also looking good this arvo in this morn's update for today…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook
Valid to: Midnight Friday 5 Sep 2014
Issued at: 8:38am Friday 5 Sep 2014
Unstable conditions are expected over the northern half of the North Island today, with convective showers for many areas. Some of these showers are likely to be heavy, with a moderate risk of isolated thunderstorms from about Taranaki and Taupo northwards (including parts of Gisborne and northern Hawkes Bay). The highest risk of thunderstorms is about Northland and Auckland this afternoon and early evening. Any thunderstorms that develop over the upper North Island are likely to produce localised heavy rain with rates of 10 to 25mm/hr and possibly small hail. There is also a low risk of one or two thunderstorms slightly further south this afternoon and evening, as indicated on the chart.
No thunderstorms expected elsewhere.
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- NZstorm
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Re: Unstable low over North Island Thurs 4th to Sat 6th
Sun breaking through cloud layer, temp 18C dp 15C. Can see T/cu out to SE.