General October Weather

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 18/10/2014 08:17

Rainfall chart for next 48hrs. The slow moving front will drop heavy rain in some areas of the north.

Keeping an eye on Sunday afternoon for possible inland thunder. Not the greatest of set ups though. One or two thunderstorms will develop in the southern Waikato but its a question of whether they are worth driving after or not. Will get a better idea tomorrow on how quickly skies clear in behind the front to allow surface heating/cape.

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sat 18/10/2014 13:57

Huge thunderstorm and large hail down here at lake benmore, 15mm hail .

Manukau heads obs · Sat 18/10/2014 15:39

nice heavy shower lines coming through here now

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 18/10/2014 16:57

Some lovely rain here, garden was starting to need it! Hopefully we can get at least 20mm from this front

Manukau heads obs · Sat 18/10/2014 17:48

25mm here now

starting to ease here now

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sat 18/10/2014 18:09

A mild rain, current dp 15C, good growing weather.
Some cooler weather showing up next week

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sat 18/10/2014 18:28

Those looking for rain are welcome to it. I'm enjoying the somewhat drier tendency that has applied here since May, September excepted. It's well overdue, as the 6-year period 2008-2013 here produced 900mm more than the LTAs.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 18/10/2014 19:06

Manukau heads obs wrote:25mm here now
starting to ease here now

Yeah seems to be clearing way earlier than forecast, GFS showing rain right through much of the night

ben g · Unread post by **ben g** » Sat 18/10/2014 19:35

Low cloud over rangitoto at moment

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1413614142.748939.jpg

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 18/10/2014 22:21

melja wrote:Huge thunderstorm and large hail down here at lake benmore, 15mm hail .

Interesting?

Nothing mentioned by MetService or TV, except for some lightning strikes round Kaikoura, according to Karen on the TVOne weather this evening?

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 19/10/2014 07:16

Heavy shower of rain here this morning to add to some good falls over night,too heavy to go look at gauge ATM

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 19/10/2014 07:31

27mm in about 13 hours here, with most of that falling in the 3 hours from about 11:30pm to 2:30am.

Very welcome though - was getting a bit dry here.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 19/10/2014 07:49

30mm here.

Afternoon convection/thunder likely over the central North Island ranges this afternoon. Southern Waikato looks to be in the thunder risk zone as well.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 19/10/2014 08:10

My gauge recorded 26 mm

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 19/10/2014 08:49

There's been 12mm here since yesterday afternoon

tgsnoopy · Unread post by **tgsnoopy** » Sun 19/10/2014 10:10

15 mm here, mostly overnight.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 19/10/2014 11:02

Yea Today looks rather interesting, having a look at the forecast skew-t for South to central Waikato shows the atmosphere is borderline unstable.
If low-level convergence is strong, I think convection should be healthy enough to get a few storms going due to latent heat release. (so the border-line unstable will turn unstable).
The Dps need to hold stable and not mix out for this event to take place though.

Central Waikato to the Hauraki Plains has a low chance of a Thundershower this afternoon, depending on convergence.
Wouldn't surprise me if we get convergence line sitting over the central to north Waikato this afternoon bringing in some showers and a low risk of Lightning attributed to it.

Convective Outlook attached for reference:

Metservice wrote:Cold air aloft should move east across central and northern New Zealand this afternoon and evening. Afternoon heating is likely to increase instability and give rise to showers where low level winds converge.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms developing this afternoon over the ranges of the upper South Island as indicated on the map. There is also a moderate risk over the eastern Bay of Plenty, the ranges of Gisborne and Hawkes Bay, Taupo and Taumarunui. A low risk area extends west into Taumarunui and Waitomo. In both the moderate risk areas, any thunderstorms that occur may be accompanied by localised heavy rain with intensities of 10 to 20mm per hour and hail.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 19/10/2014 12:08

Yes, just a borderline set up today, keeping it in perspective.

Nice day in Grey Lynn with 19C.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 19/10/2014 14:48

Can hear distant thunder to the north here in taihape region.

ended up getting some heavy rain from the weak t-storm.

Back in Hamilton and its a stunning day.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Mon 20/10/2014 08:42

Looks like a Surface trough is around Raglan at the moment, nice puffy Cumulus clouds in a line. 1.2 hPa difference between Hamilton and Raglan atm.

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Mon 20/10/2014 08:47

Towering Cu showers just west of here now.
GFS showing a heavy shower risk for Waikato tomorrow, over Northland Wednesday.

I see the Ak Airport got 35.8mm Sat/early Sun, probably still end up with below average rainfall for October

Dale · Unread post by **Dale** » Mon 20/10/2014 11:12

Cool start down here this morning, still hovering around the 10C mark.. little to no wind to speak of & threatening rain. Had a fairly good shower sometime early this morning to inject a bit of humidity but still cool enough here for me to kick the fire in the guts

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 20/10/2014 17:55

After a day of strong NW winds the SW wind change arrived at 5.00pm at least 100kms ahead of the rain band

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 20/10/2014 18:43

Richard wrote:After a day of strong NW winds the SW wind change arrived at 5.00pm at least 100kms ahead of the rain band

Yes. The Southerly went through here @ around 3.30pm, with a sort of a weak gust-front, with gusty southerly winds, a change from the light westerly wind, prior.
Finally coming onto drizzle now which will turn to rain following, hopefully.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Mon 20/10/2014 21:32

Nice cloudy evening, it is.

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