NZ Weather Forum

It's clear here at the mo, but there is a line of cloud approaching. Fingers crossed.

Sadly, it's no longer clear

Afternoon showers over the inland ranges for the next 3 days due cold 700mb temps/spring sunshine/series of short waves moving across NZ. Isolated thunder eastern Otago tomorrow.

4mm in Grey Lynn overnight from that front.

NZstorm wrote:Afternoon showers over the inland ranges for the next 3 days due cold 700mb temps/spring sunshine/series of short waves moving across NZ. Isolated thunder eastern Otago tomorrow.

4mm in Grey Lynn overnight from that front.

Closer to 10mm here.

Do you think there is a chance for lower altitudes to get showers tho?

mammatus clouds observed between taupo and rotorua to the east in 2 big patches mid-late morning, second time i have ever seen them in NZ, looked awesome.

jamie wrote:
Do you think there is a chance for lower altitudes to get showers tho?

Perhaps, if the west coast sea breeze kicks in a local convergence shower possible down your way.

The BSCH site no longer working for NZ?

I see isolated weak thunderstorms in Waitomo tonight along with widespread showers over central ranges.

Tomorrows instability looks best over the South Island with convergence showers/weak thunderstorms popping up afternoon/evening.

Tomorrows rainfall chart.

Promising Nino-like signs here - seeing more SW changes at the expense of proper southerly ones. Hope this beds in. The most recent Nina-dominated period has been a big disappointment - significantly cloudier and wetter than average overall, despite a few months' escape at the start of 2013.

RWood wrote:Promising Nino-like signs here - seeing more SW changes at the expense of proper southerly ones. Hope this beds in. The most recent Nina-dominated period has been a big disappointment - significantly cloudier and wetter than average overall, despite a few months' escape at the start of 2013.

The southwesterlies are typical of October/November weather as the highs tend to track through the central Tasman rather than digging south.
Still a chance of El Nino developing between now and Xmas, would be bad news for the NZ economy because of the dryness that would likely develop in many regions

yes , a dry summer and low milk payout will be a double whammy

We get dry no matter what the setting is , look at the last few year's

Starting to look summery in the gfs. No rain for Auckland in the next 7 days.

Rain-wise it could turn out similar to last October in Auckland (really dry)

NZstorm wrote:The BSCH site no longer working for NZ?

Rather annoying isn't it!

spwill wrote:

RWood wrote:Promising Nino-like signs here - seeing more SW changes at the expense of proper southerly ones. Hope this beds in. The most recent Nina-dominated period has been a big disappointment - significantly cloudier and wetter than average overall, despite a few months' escape at the start of 2013.

The southwesterlies are typical of October/November weather as the highs tend to track through the central Tasman rather than digging south.
Still a chance of El Nino developing between now and Xmas, would be bad news for the NZ economy because of the dryness that would likely develop in many regions

Quite different from the last few Sept-Octobers here so far. Last October here there were ferocious NW winds and very little SW stuff. The "recent" epoch here was marked byvery few critical SW events, and more downpours from both southerly situations and northerly ones with unfavourably located blocking - gave us a couple of very poor Decembers in 2010 and 2011.

melja wrote:We get dry no matter what the setting is , look at the last few year's

Totally agree with you there.....

Stunning day here! First day of Spring to hit 20.0C

Spend some of the day at Oxford waiting my young fella playing cricket,some nice looking build ups in around the hills.
Also a got a photo of a tall Margenimbus cloud

Richard wrote: Also a got a photo of a tall Margenimbus cloud

Huh? Never heard of the cloud type before.... LOL
Do you mean Cumulus Congestus?

Yes, Richard. Some nice looking Cu congestus forms observed towards your area on the way home from work this afternoon, also some Cb forms but whether it was thunderish , I don't know.

Interesting skies that way at the moment, also towards TC, but the day is getting on now, also NE cloud moving in, covering skies..

Tornado Tim wrote:

Richard wrote: Also a got a photo of a tall Margenimbus cloud

Huh? Never heard of the cloud type before.... LOL
Do you mean Cumulus Congestus?

Marge Simpson maybe

Neat photos and descriptive title, Richard

Very isolated Tstorms today. I see a weak storm has formed over hill country southwest of Hamilton this evening.

Fine here today, there was a Cumulus line to the east of Ak ( possible isolated shower) with the SW meeting a southerly

Rather nice getting to 20.2*C today

Yea that storm, I saw it but as you say it was quite weak and visually fairly weak too, not worth spending any petrol on it.....

David wrote:
Marge Simpson maybe

Well done David ,only difference was the cloud wasn't blue like Marge's hair