General October Weather

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Mon 29/09/2014 10:32

Thought id mark the start of October. .cold nights to end september but fine clear days to follow them. I guess the main talking point will be Friday this week as things look abit messy with what looks to be a cold upper trough crossing the south Island. Abit far out but thunder/hail chances could be a set up!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 29/09/2014 11:19

Finger crossed for Friday.

During Oct sometime i want to fly to Auckland to have a article plus photos done for a South Auckland rural publication,it involves blade shearing a few sheep which i have lined up already,but its about working around the weather, would be great if someone could help me with any long term modelling that indicates a period of high pressure a few weeks out ,that way i can book the cheap flights now.

Manukau heads obs · Mon 29/09/2014 16:26

Richard,very changeable Oct usually for the upper NI...and the models certainly showing that
this coming weekend not looking to bad with a SW wind

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 29/09/2014 17:50

Might just have to toss a coin i think Brian

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Tue 30/09/2014 16:08

Metvuw has really stepped up moisture levels for Friday. It was looking like SW but now more of a SSW even straight S flow so will penetrate inland. Holding the cold temps on the gfs too. I'm really looking foward to a decent thunderstorm!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Wed 01/10/2014 09:27

wait till march or april.

Richard wrote:Finger crossed for Friday.

During Oct sometime i want to fly to Auckland to have a article plus photos done for a South Auckland rural publication,it involves blade shearing a few sheep which i have lined up already,but its about working around the weather, would be great if someone could help me with any long term modelling that indicates a period of high pressure a few weeks out ,that way i can book the cheap flights now.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 01/10/2014 09:56

Michael wrote:wait till march or april.
Richard wrote:Finger crossed for Friday.

During Oct sometime i want to fly to Auckland to have a article plus photos done for a South Auckland rural publication,it involves blade shearing a few sheep which i have lined up already,but its about working around the weather, would be great if someone could help me with any long term modelling that indicates a period of high pressure a few weeks out ,that way i can book the cheap flights now.

Yes that is the best time of year but people dont like to have full wool sheep during the humid part of summer -(getting fly struck)

RichyDunedin · Unread post by **RichyDunedin** » Wed 01/10/2014 10:23

Is it possible to get thunderstorms coming from any other direction than south/south-west in the lower South Island. As far as I can remember here in Dunedin storms always come south from the sea or Taieri Plains.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 01/10/2014 10:48

RichyDunedin wrote:Is it possible to get thunderstorms coming from any other direction than south/south-west in the lower South Island. As far as I can remember here in Dunedin storms always come south from the sea or Taieri Plains.

Canterbury plains are same apart from spillover thunder/lightning,where i am we can get storms from the south all the way round to the NE,though the NE storms are rare and only in mid summer when its a humid NE wind flow.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Wed 01/10/2014 20:58

RichyDunedin wrote:Is it possible to get thunderstorms coming from any other direction than south/south-west in the lower South Island. As far as I can remember here in Dunedin storms always come south from the sea or Taieri Plains.

I think they come into Dunedin more from the west. They develop over the hill country west of Mosgiel/Dunedin Nov-Jan.

The rare storm from the south on a southerly buster.

RichyDunedin · Unread post by **RichyDunedin** » Wed 01/10/2014 21:14

Alright nice thanks for the info guys. Yea I'd say west-southwest looking at it now. I'll post up some observations from around the Dunedin area when something interesting comes up. Seems to be quite a lack of input from down here. Things look like they might turn pear shaped tomorrow. I guess we'll see what time the front pushes through and see what comes our way. Low risk of storms, probably some hail and snow on the hills.

einzack · Unread post by **einzack** » Wed 01/10/2014 21:39

Noticed some unusual (to me) things that my dew point measurements from today - specifically at 6pm tonight.
Any ideas what might cause it?
Nothing noticeably changed weather-wise at this time. Still full sun, still a light breeze.
Am just curious what it might be?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Wed 01/10/2014 21:43

Sea breeze? What did the wind do?

einzack · Unread post by **einzack** » Thu 02/10/2014 05:36

Wind went slightly more W from NNW perhaps?
That's all I can identify, but the shift is so slight could it have caused such a rise in DP and humidity?

But what a cracker day we had yesterday. Maxed at 23.4°C.
Based on the forecast for the next 10 days it could be a while before we see the sun again.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Thu 02/10/2014 06:58

Looks like a disturbed pattern for the country next 7 days, just have to hope the weather turns out better than the models indicate.
Its been a sunny week at least.

Still looking like the very cold airmass tomorrow will generate isolated thunderstorms over eastern Canterbury.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Thu 02/10/2014 07:49

Looking like a decent topup of Snow for Ruapehu and other ski fields this weekend..

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Thu 02/10/2014 11:17

NZstorm wrote:
Still looking like the very cold airmass tomorrow will generate isolated thunderstorms over eastern Canterbury.

Yes iv got a job to finish in rolleston tomorrow morning and after that my boss has said I can finish early to chase. Whats the chances of severe hail tomorrow for canterbury? I dont think its NE? And I see the jet is abit further north then id like.

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Thu 02/10/2014 12:50

10 years ago,though an unsettled year it was.

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Thu 02/10/2014 22:54

Anyone else notice the dramatic drop in MSL pressure? Down to 948.8hpa. Lowest I've seen in a long time

tich · Unread post by **tich** » Fri 03/10/2014 00:06

That low to the northeast of NI over the last few days pushed some really big swells not just to the east and north of the NI, but also further south as I saw today at Sumner and Taylor's Mistake. (puddles left from where waves broke over onto the pathway at Sumner)

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 03/10/2014 07:05

850mb temps looking chilly tomorrow, -2C for Auckland so its going to be a cold day!

Michael · Unread post by **Michael** » Fri 03/10/2014 09:19

El nino though a bit early.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 04/10/2014 12:51

Had a hail shower at 11.00am that covered the ground,looks like another shower about to hit too.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 04/10/2014 12:53

Reports of snow settled hills around Taupo overnight.gone now though

RWood · Unread post by **RWood** » Sat 04/10/2014 13:09

Cool but sunny here still, getting the benefit of the "favourable quadrant". Lunchtime deterioration appears to have been cancelled.

Edit: something more interesting appearing in the southern skies now...

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