General November Weather

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, looks like a 3 day cold event for the country. Hail, lightning, squalls.

Yes. looking forward to it with enthusiasm

[mikestormchaser]

Could be chance PM thunder/hail up the coast on tuesday evening with SW change.. Wensday does seem better with that cold upper air anda big ridging over Canterbury.. could be a risk of severe hail if a NE can sneak in that day.

[NZstorm]

Could be chance PM thunder/hail up the coast on tuesday evening with SW change.. Wensday does seem better with that cold upper air anda big ridging over Canterbury.. could be a risk of severe hail if a NE can sneak in that day.

Also for a supercell you also need 30knots around the 600mb to 500mb level. 40-50knots would be more ideal.

[jamie]

Could be interesting couple days ahead in queenstown. Hopefully hear a rumble in my travels tomorrow around central otago and will head up high on Tuesday to find some snow. Forecast is for snow to 700m so shouldn't be too hard to find.

[spwill]

Much of NZ looks to have some risk for isolated thunder/hail this week with the cold system crossing but I think Qtwn will miss the thunder.

A burst of warm air showing up later in the week and it will probably turn humid in the north.

[Nev]

Yes, maybe not the best up here tomorrow arvo, but very interesting T-Storm Outlook in other parts…

MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 11 Nov 2014
Issued at: 10:51am Monday 10 Nov 2014

During the afternoon and evening the main areas of thunderstorm risk move northwards.

Western Nelson, Buller and Westland are in the high risk area during the afternoon and evening, while the Marlborough Sounds and western areas of the North Island from Kapiti to Waikato have moderate risk of thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening. For Fiordland and southern Southland, including Stewart Island, the risk of thunderstorms is moderate during the afternoon reducing to low in the evening. In all these areas there is likely to be localised heavy rain with intensities from 10 to 25mm per hour and hail of 10 to 20mm in diameter.

There is a low risk that the thunderstorms could spread into Northland, Auckland,the Coromandel Peninsula and Bay of Plenty in the evening or at night.

Due to localised convergences developing during the afternoon about eastern Southland and Otago as well as coastal South Canterbury there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms in these areas during the afternoon and early evening. These thunderstorms could produce localised heavy rain but are most likely to be accompanied by hail of 10 to 20mm in diameter but there is a low risk that hail could be bigger than 20mm in diameter making these storms SEVERE.

There is a low risk of thunderstorms spreading further north along the Canterbury coast in the evening and developing in inland Otago and Southland during the afternoon and evening.

No other areas of severe convection or thunderstorms are expected.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 11, pm.png

[Dale]

It's not looking too bad out there atm.. but it's only lunchtime.. and the air has that "feel" in it.. the same feel I would have in Brisbane just before some decent wx.. so fingers crossed

[spwill]

It's not looking too bad out there atm.. but it's only lunchtime.. and the air has that "feel" in it.. the same feel I would have in Brisbane just before some decent wx.. so fingers crossed

SE Qld has a great climate.

Wednesday evening looks the time of interest for Auckland, perhaps another cold trough line during Thursday

[treetop]

strong sw winds in the north will limit any severe Tstm activity after the front, East coast more likely to cop one

[NZstorm]

strong sw winds in the north will limit any severe Tstm activity after the front, East coast more likely to cop one

You will be referring to Thursday. I agree that Gisborne is the bulls eye for thunder activity.

Keeping an eye on Wednesday afternoon for Auckland, gfs indicating something interesting possible!

[Nev]

This morn's T-storm update for today…

MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Tuesday 11 Nov 2014
Issued at: 8:22am Tuesday 11 Nov 2014

An unsettled westerly flow is spreading across New Zealand today,along with very cold temperatures in the upper atmosphere. Occasional heavy showers and hail are forecast to spread up western parts of the South Island today, and near Foveaux Strait and coastal Southland. In these areas there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms. Afternoon convergences are expected in Dunedin, North Otago and South Canterbury south of about Timaru. There is a high risk of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening in these areas, especially near the coast,which may produce localised heavy rain and hail of 10 to 20mm diameter. In addition there is a low risk of these storms becoming SEVERE, producing hail diameters in excess of 20mm. A low risk of thunderstorms extends across the remainder of Southland, Otago and Mid Canterbury.

Weakening fronts are moving over the North Island today, and there is a low risk of a few thunderstorms from Waitomo to Northland and across to Bay of Plenty this evening. As temperature cool in the upper atmosphere tonight,northwesterlies become unstable across the lower North Island, with a low to moderate risk of thunderstorms from Taranaki to Kapiti.

No thunderstorms expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 11.png

[RichyDunedin]

Looks like we are in the firing line for a good storm today. Had a torrential downpour last night and nice and sunny currently. Seems there is no rain radar data for around Dunedin though?

[Dale]

Likewise over here.. had a good downpour overnight & earlier this morning, now the sun is out doing it's work. Not going to hold my breath but if anything is going to happen, later on today will be it.

[RichyDunedin]

Occasional thunder here currently. Getting alot darker and hail on and off the last couple hours

[03Stormchaser]

Heard there has been a good hail shower in Dunedin. Also looks to be building around Oamaru

[RichyDunedin]

Yeah a decent thunderstorm over town with quite alot of thunder now. Looks like a very impressive thunderstorm off the coast of Moeraki/Oamaru though.

[jamie]

Went up the remarkables and caught a decent snow shower up there. Was settling and making it all white too.

[Storm Struck]

A very interesting day for convergences I just came from north canterbury where its a fresh gusty NE, then strong NW in templeton and lighter W-SW in Rolleston.
This could make for some interesting storms later today more or so south of Rakaia, I would say Ashburton could get a decent storm with decent sized hail.
Maybe a few CBs will drift thier way towards the peninsula tonight, but it certainly looks punchy further south.
But anyway tomorrow looks really good a high risk I reackon not low, not sure why the MS have done that Paul? I am thinking its because there is a slight chance of the wind being SW from early morning.
However I don't think the SW overnight will last into tomorrow morning, so a coastal NE should get going before another change later on.

[RichyDunedin]

Round 2 heading into Dunedin. Constant loud thunder to the west. Going to be a big storm

[Chris Raine]

Yes we had a thunderstorm in Oamaru about 2pm .Small hail later heavy shower etc

[RichyDunedin]

Ended up with thunderstorms at around 4am, 12pm and 4pm. The last storm had alot of lightning with some good CGs and almost continuous thunder for 90 minutes. A few moderate sized hail showers but nothing special. Good luck for everyone else for tomorrow, hopefully use get a similar setup.

[Dale]

Fair bit of banging & crashing around here as the front moves its way up.. glad its not the wind this time. Have a blast you lot over the hill

[Razor]

Nothing other than a nice day here in ChCh for the cup. Good to have

[dogmelon]

Oamaru and Dune-din seem to be pretty good for frequency of storms, at least compared to up here.

[treetop]

East Australia trough really settling in now so expect more annoying SW influence on the current patterns..Good time of the year for them though !