NZ Weather Forum

Just left Milford Sound. Very heavy rain, hail and sleet most of today. Got a good Fiordland drenching. Few rumbles of thunder.Was lucky to get out as snow was settling quick either side of the tunnel and the road was closed at 5pm, most likely until Thursday. Now in Mossburn and it's blowing a gale. Pretty consistently blows a westerly gale everyday this time of year.

Paul Mallinson wrote: Yes, the Total Totals does 'blow out' in cold air masses. We have 'normalised' this index so that the key value of 50 applies to a much wider range of airmasses. We call it the Normalised Total Totals and it works pretty well.

Paul

Interesting, thanks Paul.

Not sure what the M/S is seeing but they have it a tad chilly in Hokitika on Thursday

Plenty of lightning out over the alps at present. Some good gusts here in town too from the NW

Had some of the nastiest gusts over night for some time,now calmed down a lot with heavy rain.

Ripper of a day here so far, hope it continues..

SnwAddct wrote:Ripper of a day here so far, hope it continues..

Here was an attempt at a panorama shot this morning at Eastern Beach, taken on my new smart phone:

Richard wrote:Had some of the nastiest gusts over night for some time,now calmed down a lot with heavy rain.

wasn't too bad here in Culverden max gust was only 79.6km, I have heard there is more flipped pivots around the area though...

trickytiger wrote:

Richard wrote:Had some of the nastiest gusts over night for some time,now calmed down a lot with heavy rain.

wasn't too bad here in Culverden max gust was only 79.6km, I have heard there is more flipped pivots around the area though...

Just got back from the Peaks area where there's a few trees down

When will this horrid weather end? I'm getting sick of cold showery westerly or s'westerly flows.

Looks like a short reprieve coming but then it's back to this **** weather

full on el nino type weather for sure...
temperatures been colder than normal for a change (except for eastern NI areas?)
I remember one El-nino the strong cold SW wind went right through January!

This month seems more like an extension of October. My average temperature for the month so far is 14.5°C, October's average was 14.2.

The pattern ahead for the next week looks generally warmer, West/NW flows. A few humid days in the mix. Ridging over northern NZ so quiet here on the precipitation side. Might be breezy at times.

Re Sat weather for Auckland , GFS showing a light precipitation risk in the evening, dps around 15C so a warmer feel .

Manukau heads obs wrote:full on el nino type weather for sure...
temperatures been colder than normal for a change (except for eastern NI areas?)
I remember one El-nino the strong cold SW wind went right through January!

If it's the year I remember in the 90's there was a slight frost in low lying spots (around Cambridge) in January, which damaged maize crops and snow fell at the Chateau golf course.

jamie wrote:When will this horrid weather end? I'm getting sick of cold showery westerly or s'westerly flows.

Looks like a short reprieve coming but then it's back to this **** weather

Just like down here with these persistent NWsters

I have my wedding Saturday week (29th). Ceremony is outside, so from tomorrow I will be pouring over the weather models! Anyone willing to make a prediction this far out?

The big El Nino event that set the bench mark for cold summers was 1983.

Apparently this El Nino event is forecast to be weak so these windy cool conditions should eventually subside as we go into summer. I don't think an official El Nino has been declared yet anyway.

03Stormchaser wrote:I have my wedding Saturday week (29th). Ceremony is outside, so from tomorrow I will be pouring over the weather models! Anyone willing to make a prediction this far out?

The models will fluctuate a bit with the timing of a major polar trough.
There is a clip on line of a Kansas wedding with a tornado in the back ground!

El Nino like pattern any way. Probably a windy low rainfall pattern in the weeks ahead for many areas, north and east of NZ. I reckon our Summer will be good after New Year.

I can remember past El Nino summers in Auckland being very good after Xmas.

Looking like good potential for lightning over the Southern Alps tomorrow given the jet stream and moisture (850mb dp 10C).

Looks mixed weather untill Wed then a return to strong/gale SW. Hope of a trough and storms up here looking unlikely now as NW winds keep kicking in. I agree with spwill not looking summery until 2015 unless you live in Hawkes Bay/Gisbourne

Further out to next friday looks like a snow event for the South

warm and humid here now...big change from yesterday morning

Feeling a bit muggy today, currently 21°C, dewpoint 17°C

Kaikoura Aero's 32C yesterday is impressive for Nov - not sure if it's a site record though?

However, Kaikoura's 29.5C (Peninsula) yesterday looks to be its 2nd highest Nov temp since records began in 1963 - the highest being 32.8C in 1964. The only other times it has exceeded 28.0C in Nov was with 29.4C in 1982 and 1975.