NZ Weather Forum

NZstorm wrote:The thunder risk looks best south of Auckland but I would not count Auckland out.

MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Noon Wednesday 12 Nov 2014
Issued at: 10:39am Tuesday 11 Nov 2014

Unstable westerlies persist across southern and central New Zealand, along with very cold air in the upper atmosphere. The moderate risk of thunderstorms in Fiordland and Westland eases before dawn, but persists over Buller and western Nelson. The risk of thunderstorms becomes moderate during the morning in western parts of the North Island from Manawatu to Waitomo, with a lesser risk from Waikato to Taupo and Kapiti. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter, along with strong wind gusts of 90 km/h from Manawatu to Waikato. There is a low risk of a few thunderstorms about Foveaux Strait and Clutha, and about Banks Peninsula on a southerly change.

No thunderstorms expected for the remainder of New Zealand.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 12, am.png

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 12 Nov 2014
Issued at: 10:48am Tuesday 11 Nov 2014

Strong and unstable westerlies continue over central New Zealand, bringing heavy showers and hail to many western areas. There is a high risk of thunderstorms from Waikato to Manawatu during the afternoon and evening, with a low risk from Auckland to Bay of Plenty and southwards to Kapiti. The moderate risk of thunderstorms about western Nelson eases during the afternoon. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter, along with strong wind gusts of 90 km/h from Waikato to Manawatu. The southerly change is forecast to focus around inland Marlborough and the Sounds, Wellington and south Wairarapa later in the afternoon and early evening. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with this change, bringing localised heavy rain and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter. These storms may move slowly, bringing the potential for unsually deep hail accumulations.

Wind convergences may bring a few heavy showers and a low risk of thunderstorms with hail to parts of Westland, Buller, eastern Nelson, Canterbury and north Otago as depicted on the chart.

No thunderstorms expected over the remainder of New Zealand.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 12, pm.png

jamie wrote:Far!!!! A ripper CG just smoked somewhere in Taupiri not far from here. This little shower is quite electrically charged

MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 12 Nov 2014
Issued at: 11:17am Wednesday 12 Nov 2014

Unstable westerlies are expected to affect central and northern New Zealand during today, while a cold southerly flow affects southern New Zealand.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms today about western areas of the North Island from Waikato to the Kapiti Coast, which extends to the central North Island high country areas. This moderate risk then spreads north to western and southern parts of Auckland tonight. Additionally, a moderate risk of thunderstorms develops this afternoon from North Otago through inland Canterbury to Marlborough and also about southern Wairarapa, which then spreads to remaining areas of Wairarapa and Wellington this evening. Any thunderstorms in these areas have the potential to produce localised heavy rain with intensities of 10-20mm/hr and hail 5-15mm in diameter. However about inland north Canterbury and Marlborough hail of 10-20mm is possible, with a moderate risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS producing large accumulations of hail in localised areas. In western areas of the North Island there is also a possibility of strong winds gusts with thunderstorms.

In Buller and western Nelson there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this morning and afternoon, bringing localised heavy rain of 10-15mm/hr and hail 5-15mm in diameter.

Outside these moderate risk areas there is a low risk of thunderstorms from the central South Island to northern New Zealand.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 12 - update 2.png

MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Noon Thursday 13 Nov 2014
Issued at: 10:52am Wednesday 12 Nov 2014

The unstable southwest flow is expected to continue to bring a moderate risk of thunderstorms to western areas of the North Island from Taranaki northwards during Thursday morning, and to the eastern Bay of Plenty during the overnight period.

While a southerly flow in the east from Wairarapa to Hawkes Bay also brings a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms.

Any thunderstorms that develop in these areas have the potential to bring localised heavy rain of 10-20mm/hr, hail 5-15mm in diameter, and for the storms in the west 90 km/h gusts.

Elsewhere over the North Island and about northern Marlborough, there is a low risk of thunderstorms.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over southern New Zealand during the period.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 13, am.png

Valid to: Midnight Thursday 13 Nov 2014
Issued at: 11:42am Wednesday 12 Nov 2014

A moderate risk of thunderstorms with the unstable southwest flow continues into the evening from Northland to Waikato, including Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula.

During the afternoon and evening, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms developing from Marlborough and eastern Nelson, across the Stephens Marine area to Wanganui, northern Manawatu and Taihape, and also about the ranges of Gisborne.

Any thunderstorms that develop in these areas have the potential to produce localised heavy rain with intensities of 10-20mm/hr and small hail.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over southern New Zealand during the period.

MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 13, pm.png

Tornado Tim wrote:Nothing here so far, hopefully will hear some Thunder tonight and tomorrow.

David wrote:

Tornado Tim wrote:Nothing here so far, hopefully will hear some Thunder tonight and tomorrow.

Nothing interesting here either sadly, haven't noticed any hail or thunder...