Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

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NZstorm
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Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

Unread post by NZstorm »

Back to winter folks.

Showery Wednesday over the North Island and an afternoon cold front will bring some stronger convection through with thunderstorms/hail/squalls 50knots! The thunder risk looks best south of Auckland but I would not count Auckland out.


Wednesday Midday 500mb.
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by David »

GFS is showing 12 degrees at 4pm for Auckland tomorrow, sounds highly unusual for the time of year!
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by mikestormchaser »

Metservice going high risk over coastal canterbury with low risk severe hail... would of thought tomorrow was good for canterbury? ??
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by David »

NZstorm wrote:The thunder risk looks best south of Auckland but I would not count Auckland out.
MS agrees, high risk south of Auckland, but just low risk for Auckland itself. Drat!
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by Nev »

Yep, here's tomorrow's outlook…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Noon Wednesday 12 Nov 2014
Issued at: 10:39am Tuesday 11 Nov 2014

Unstable westerlies persist across southern and central New Zealand, along with very cold air in the upper atmosphere. The moderate risk of thunderstorms in Fiordland and Westland eases before dawn, but persists over Buller and western Nelson. The risk of thunderstorms becomes moderate during the morning in western parts of the North Island from Manawatu to Waitomo, with a lesser risk from Waikato to Taupo and Kapiti. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter, along with strong wind gusts of 90 km/h from Manawatu to Waikato. There is a low risk of a few thunderstorms about Foveaux Strait and Clutha, and about Banks Peninsula on a southerly change.

No thunderstorms expected for the remainder of New Zealand.
MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 12, am.png
Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 12 Nov 2014
Issued at: 10:48am Tuesday 11 Nov 2014

Strong and unstable westerlies continue over central New Zealand, bringing heavy showers and hail to many western areas. There is a high risk of thunderstorms from Waikato to Manawatu during the afternoon and evening, with a low risk from Auckland to Bay of Plenty and southwards to Kapiti. The moderate risk of thunderstorms about western Nelson eases during the afternoon. These thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter, along with strong wind gusts of 90 km/h from Waikato to Manawatu. The southerly change is forecast to focus around inland Marlborough and the Sounds, Wellington and south Wairarapa later in the afternoon and early evening. There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with this change, bringing localised heavy rain and hail of 5 to 15mm diameter. These storms may move slowly, bringing the potential for unsually deep hail accumulations.

Wind convergences may bring a few heavy showers and a low risk of thunderstorms with hail to parts of Westland, Buller, eastern Nelson, Canterbury and north Otago as depicted on the chart.

No thunderstorms expected over the remainder of New Zealand.
MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 12, pm.png
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by spwill »

The overnight hrs tomorrow are perhaps the best chance for thunder in Auckland as the cold upper system comes north, I think the chance for thunder here with this system is good given how chilly the upper levels.
I think Canterbury looks good for a storm or two tomorrow
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Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by jamie »

She's a bit chilly in Qtown with snow on the mountains. Fresh stuff this morning and more falling now.
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by Razor »

Cracking day in Chch for Cup day. Warm and sunny, no action here
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Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by jamie »

Thunder here. Good start to the day
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Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by jamie »

Far!!!! A ripper CG just smoked somewhere in Taupiri not far from here. This little shower is quite electrically charged
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by NZstorm »

jamie wrote:Far!!!! A ripper CG just smoked somewhere in Taupiri not far from here. This little shower is quite electrically charged
Quite low topped convection this morning in that area going by models! I believe there is an orographic effect over Waikato in these strong W so cloud tops are pushed higher.

The satellite looks very impressive this morning. We don't often see cold pools like that in winter!
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by melja »

Yes very cold on the western side and i see Hokitika is on 5C and steady rain.
Twizel is on -3C at 7am :eek:
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

the question is, will those showers rotate up into the auckland area, or dive back down , rotating around the low center, to affect only the waikato...
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by Nev »

MS now have a moderate risk for Akld tonight, with the high-risk area from Waikato to Kapiti Coast in this morn's update for later today…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Wednesday 12 Nov 2014
Issued at: 11:17am Wednesday 12 Nov 2014

Unstable westerlies are expected to affect central and northern New Zealand during today, while a cold southerly flow affects southern New Zealand.

There is a moderate risk of thunderstorms today about western areas of the North Island from Waikato to the Kapiti Coast, which extends to the central North Island high country areas. This moderate risk then spreads north to western and southern parts of Auckland tonight. Additionally, a moderate risk of thunderstorms develops this afternoon from North Otago through inland Canterbury to Marlborough and also about southern Wairarapa, which then spreads to remaining areas of Wairarapa and Wellington this evening. Any thunderstorms in these areas have the potential to produce localised heavy rain with intensities of 10-20mm/hr and hail 5-15mm in diameter. However about inland north Canterbury and Marlborough hail of 10-20mm is possible, with a moderate risk of SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS producing large accumulations of hail in localised areas. In western areas of the North Island there is also a possibility of strong winds gusts with thunderstorms.

In Buller and western Nelson there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms this morning and afternoon, bringing localised heavy rain of 10-15mm/hr and hail 5-15mm in diameter.

Outside these moderate risk areas there is a low risk of thunderstorms from the central South Island to northern New Zealand.
MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 12 - update 2.png
Edit: Updated
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by spwill »

We will be more in the firing line for the heavier showers in the am hrs tomorrow.
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

Very squally shower gone through
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by David »

Actually quite nice weather here at the moment, 18 degrees at midday.
Hopefully we get to hear some thunder overnight/morning!
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by Nev »

Tomorrow's moderate-risk includes Akld/Northland for much of the day…
MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Noon Thursday 13 Nov 2014
Issued at: 10:52am Wednesday 12 Nov 2014

The unstable southwest flow is expected to continue to bring a moderate risk of thunderstorms to western areas of the North Island from Taranaki northwards during Thursday morning, and to the eastern Bay of Plenty during the overnight period.

While a southerly flow in the east from Wairarapa to Hawkes Bay also brings a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms.

Any thunderstorms that develop in these areas have the potential to bring localised heavy rain of 10-20mm/hr, hail 5-15mm in diameter, and for the storms in the west 90 km/h gusts.

Elsewhere over the North Island and about northern Marlborough, there is a low risk of thunderstorms.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over southern New Zealand during the period.
MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 13, am.png
Valid to: Midnight Thursday 13 Nov 2014
Issued at: 11:42am Wednesday 12 Nov 2014

A moderate risk of thunderstorms with the unstable southwest flow continues into the evening from Northland to Waikato, including Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula.

During the afternoon and evening, there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms developing from Marlborough and eastern Nelson, across the Stephens Marine area to Wanganui, northern Manawatu and Taihape, and also about the ranges of Gisborne.

Any thunderstorms that develop in these areas have the potential to produce localised heavy rain with intensities of 10-20mm/hr and small hail.

No thunderstorms or significant convection expected over southern New Zealand during the period.
MetService T-storm Outlook Map - Oct 13, pm.png
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island Wednesday

Unread post by tgsnoopy »

Yawn, as usual for me, Low Risk, Low Risk, Low Risk. Only time something interesting happens I'm out of town. I guess I'm just going to have to travel as usual ;-) Question is where and when.
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Nothing here so far, hopefully will hear some Thunder tonight and tomorrow.
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

Unread post by NZstorm »

We have the cold upper air today but the strong SW will limit convergence, so I don't expect much, though a lightning strike or two certainly possible today.
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

Unread post by David »

Tornado Tim wrote:Nothing here so far, hopefully will hear some Thunder tonight and tomorrow.
Nothing interesting here either sadly, haven't noticed any hail or thunder...
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

Unread post by NZstorm »

David wrote:
Tornado Tim wrote:Nothing here so far, hopefully will hear some Thunder tonight and tomorrow.
Nothing interesting here either sadly, haven't noticed any hail or thunder...
I would be surprised if there was not a rumble today over east Auckland. The cold upper air has only just arrived this morning, yesterday it stayed well south of here.
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

Unread post by GraemeWi »

We had a fair amount of hail go through Henderson at around 5am, still on the ground and in gutters at 6.45 when I left for work. It must have been good as it blasted the brake dust off my cars rims!
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Re: Cold squally thunder across the North Island - Nov 12/13

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

good looking CB tops to my south
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