Re: T-storms risk - Sat 22 Nov
Posted: Sat 22/11/2014 16:21
Actually not entirely true spwill while it has been southerly for a couple of hours it seems the action lies to the south still and out to sea
Razor wrote:Actually not entirely true spwill while it has been southerly for a couple of hours it seems the action lies to the south still and out to sea
The Watch you mean....Powermad wrote:MS just lifted their severe thunderstorm warning..
But the Metservice severe watch was with the southerly wind change and they still have the severe thunderstorm watch up for Christchurch.Razor wrote:Actually not entirely true spwill while it has been southerly for a couple of hours it seems the action lies to the south still and out to sea
Can't find it on their site - got a link?Powermad wrote:MS just lifted their severe thunderstorm warning..
http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... m-warningsPowermad wrote:Nope.. coz its gone!
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Watch
Valid to: 5:30pm Saturday 22 Nov 2014
Issued at: 1:02pm Saturday 22 Nov 2014
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
Issued by MetService at 01:02 pm Saturday 22 November 2014
Valid until 05:30 pm Saturday 22 November 2014
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Christchurch
Canterbury Plains
Canterbury High Country
A very strong and active southerly change moves northwards through Mid and North Canterbury this afternoon, bringing squally showers and possible thunderstorms from about Ashburton northwards. There is a moderate risk of a few SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS with this southerly change across the Canterbury coast and Plains, and about the foothills. These storms may produce large hail in excess of 20mm, damaging wind gusts in excess of 110km/h, and the chance of a small tornado inland. Behind the southerly change, thunderstorm activity will quickly ease. Wind gusts of this strength can cause some structural damage, including trees and power lines, and may make driving hazardous. Large hail can cause significant damage to crops, orchards, vines, glasshouses and vehicles, as well as make driving conditions hazardous. Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.
Issued by: gullery
This watch will be updated by: 05:00 pm Saturday 22 November 2014
I heard on the forecast though that it was more than a risk. It was basically a definite with 110km/hr gusts from the south with thunder and hail. A big fail in my books but not unhappy it didn't eventuateWell it's all over now guys.
Don't forget it's called a Thunderstorm RISK" not a Thunderstorm Actual, so no matter how high the risk is, it doesn't mean it would actually happen anyway, but never mind.
In situations like this and considering the EL Nino spring we are having, one has to be cautious and it is better to be safe than sorry.
MetService did have a Warning out for gusts up to 110 km/h in some areas, but it never included thunderstorms and hail. The latter was only mentioned in their Watches and Outlooks.cantygal wrote:I heard on the forecast though that it was more than a risk. It was basically a definite with 110km/hr gusts from the south with thunder and hail. A big fail in my books but not unhappy it didn't eventuate
Sadly I heard it on 3 different radio stations with the MetService forecast mentioned each time. Thunderstorms and hail were the main elements as was the southerly of 110km/hr.MetService did have a Warning out for gusts up to 110 km/h in some areas, but it never included thunderstorms and hail. The latter was only mentioned in their Watches and Outlooks.
There is the problem. One word, beginning with "M".. and no, not metservicecantygal wrote:These weren't read as watches or warnings but their usual hourly city/regional forecasts.
MetService - Severe Weather Warnings
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:10 am 22-Nov-2014
Further heavy rain for the the west of the South Island, the Alps and lower North Island. Northwest gales for central New Zealand.
A front over Fiordland and Southland is moving northwards during Saturday.
This front is preceded heavy rain in the west of the South Island, and also brings a burst of heavy rain to the lower North Island today (Saturday). Heavy falls are still expected in Fiordland till around midday, and in Westland, Buller and about the Main Divide into the afternoon. This includes spillover into the Canterbury headwaters. Streams and rivers are likely to remain in flood, and surface flooding and slips are also possible.
Additionally, strong northwesterlies ahead of the front will affect areas between Canterbury and Hawkes Bay, with severe gales expected in some places. The strongest winds are likely to affect Wairarapa, the hills of Wellington (including the Rimutaka Hill Road) and the Marlborough Sounds. In these areas, gusts of 120km/h or more are possible, which may damage trees, powerlines and can make driving difficult.
...
P.S. Having said that, MS would appear to have been overly optimistic with that T-Storm Outlook and Watch. I think NZstorm, not surprisingly, was more on the money right from the outset…MetService - Severe Weather Watch
Valid to 9:33am Sunday 23 Nov 2014
SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHLAND, OTAGO, CANTERBURY, MARLBOROUGH, NELSON, WELLINGTON, HAWKES BAY, TARANAKI
ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0933hrs 22-Nov-2014
NORTHWEST GALES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS INTO SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN FOR OTAGO HEADWATERS, ALSO SOUTHLAND AND MT TARANAKI ON SATURDAY.
A slow moving front near southern Fiordland is forecast to move northwards on Saturday, bringing heavy rain and northwest gales to some areas. Behind the front, a low is expected to deepen just east of Canterbury, resulting in a risk of severe southwest gales about Banks Peninsula, while a rainband moves over the lower South Island.
Warnings remain in force for a number of regions today. This Watch covers a threat of severe weather in other districts as follows:
…
STRONG WIND
CANTERBURY: Northwest gales have eased about the High Country and inland areas north of the Rakaia River, but there is a risk of severe southwest gales about Banks Peninsula Saturday afternoon and early evening.