Heavy Rain and Strong Winds for upper N.I. - Dec 13-15

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Fri 12/12/2014 07:53

Looking like the low will bring rain to the upper half of the North Island late Saturday to Monday time frame. 150mm not out of question for upper Northland. Gales in exposed parts of Northland/Auckland. Perhaps thunder in the far north Sunday also.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Fri 12/12/2014 15:18

I see today's MS Severe Weather Outlook now has a 'high confidence' of rainfall reaching warning levels, along with severe easterly gales for Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula on Sunday…

MetService - Severe Weather Outlook

Issued: 2:42pm Friday 12 Dec 2014
Valid from Sunday 14 December 2014 to Wednesday 17 December 2014

A low over the northern Tasman Sea approaches the far north of the North Island during Sunday, directing a moist easterly flow over the South Island, while a ridge remains slow-moving over the South Island. The low is expected to move slowly away to the easing [sic] during Monday and Tuesday.

There is high confidence of rainfall accumulations reaching warning criteria in Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula on Sunday, with low confidence on Monday. For Waikato, Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, there is moderate confidence of heavy rain on Sunday, decreasing to low on Monday. In addition, there is high confidence of severe easterly gales for Northland, Auckland and Coromandel Peninsula during Sunday.

The weather settles for a time on Tuesday. However, on Wednesday, a second low approaches the west of the North Island from the north Tasman Sea, while the ridge over the South Island weakens and moves away to the east.

There is low confidence of heavy rain and severe northerly gales affecting Northland to Waikato, including Coromandel Peninsula, Bay of Plenty and Taupo during Wednesday.

MetService Severe WX Outlook - Is. Dec 12.png

Manukau heads obs · Fri 12/12/2014 18:02

the models are not in very good agreement yet still though

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 13/12/2014 06:58

Thought it might be worth starting a thread for this event.

Manukau heads obs · Sat 13/12/2014 07:40

closing in like already...just how the models originally had it for today a week ago...
instead of sunday or even monday at one stage...they have been all over the place with this system this week
hopefully that patchy rain on the rain radar stays north of Waiuku until after the xmas parade (2pm)...at least we wont need to apply sun block to all the kids

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 13/12/2014 09:55

Whangarei also has its Christmas Festival this evening.

MS still confident enough to issue a rain warning this morn for tonight/tomorrow morn. Summary…

MetService - Severe Weather Warnings

ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:38 am 13-Dec-2014

Heavy rain for northern New Zealand on Sunday.

A low is expected to approach the Far North today (Saturday), then move slowly across Northland during Sunday. A frontal system associated with the low should bring a period of heavy rain as it crosses northern New Zealand. The heaviest falls are expected in Northland during Sunday morning, where 140mm could accumulate in a 12 hour period. Meanwhile, for northern Auckland and also about the Coromandel Peninsula, 80 to 100mm could accumulate during Sunday…

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 13/12/2014 10:56

I note that in their Severe weather outlook yesterday, all of Auckland was in the high-risk zone, but the warning issued this morning only has northern Akl...

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 13/12/2014 15:34

David wrote:I note that in their Severe weather outlook yesterday, all of Auckland was in the high-risk zone, but the warning issued this morning only has northern Akl...

North Auckland has a lot of steep terrain with good exposure to the east, so good orographic enhancement there.

iomkiwi · Unread post by **iomkiwi** » Sat 13/12/2014 16:48

So far nothing to speak of wind or wet wise

Heavy overcast all day but only a few drops of rain so far.

littleheaven · Unread post by **littleheaven** » Sat 13/12/2014 17:56

Rain becoming more persistent although not particularly heavy, here on the North Shore. I'm just glad it held off long enough for my company's kid's party at the zoo. Quite pleasant other than a few spits of rain there.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sat 13/12/2014 18:59

Marine warning for 55 knot gusts in the Hauraki Gulf tomorrow, and 65 knot gusts north of Whangaparoa!

Manukau heads obs · Sun 14/12/2014 06:45

really good rain here
30mm so far

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 14/12/2014 08:27

Similar here - 36mm of welcome rain so far. Not much wind yet though.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 14/12/2014 08:36

Getting windy here. 44mm so far in my gauge.

Brassnz · Unread post by **Brassnz** » Sun 14/12/2014 08:51

49mm here so far, but nothing noteworthy in terms of wind (yet).

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 14/12/2014 08:57

A good soaking, no watering of the garden/ lawns this side of Xmas

Interesting to see there will be some very humid air just north of Auckland today, dewpoint around 20C for Northland perhaps North Auckland, instability/ heavy shower risk up there.
Dewpoint around 15C for Ak City today.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 14/12/2014 09:12

36mm here for this event so far.

Tiritiri just reached gusts to 100 km/h, the Waitemata up to 91 km/h and even the Tamaki Strait (Sth'n Waiheke) up to 85 km/h.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 14/12/2014 09:49

now 60mm here

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 14/12/2014 10:11

Lucky you Brian. Only 20mm here but this is great rain none the less

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 14/12/2014 11:39

Still only 37mm here. Rain has eased off a little for now.

Still blustery though - Tiritiri was gusting to at least 115 km/h.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 14/12/2014 11:45

Sure is a cold day for December here. Only 16 degrees so far. Rain cleared 9.30am, had 42mm total.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 14/12/2014 12:41

what was your total Brassnz?
I am usually similar to you in this setup

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 14/12/2014 14:59

Friend who just arrived on a delayed flight from Sydney to Akld Aero texted to say it was a rough landing and people were screaming.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 14/12/2014 15:51

Re adjusted my rain total down to 49mm
as had rain gauge setting wrong.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 15/12/2014 06:32

Lost power for about an hour just after 8pm last night, although winds probably peaked roughly around midnight last night. MS have Whangaparaoa recording gusts to 124 km/h in the hour to 11pm, although they may have been stronger after that. Whangaparaoa also recorded an impressive 59mm for this event.

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