General February Weather

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 22/02/2015 08:13

That convergence zone will give some parts of the Waikato a wet day! Daytime heating will pep up the shower activity with localised heavy falls. The possibility of lightning overnight tonight near Taupo as that upper level vortex gets nearer.

500mb chart for later today. (06Z 7pm)

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sun 22/02/2015 08:14

mikestormchaser wrote:
melja wrote:The most impressive thunderstorms around here with almost constant thunder and lighting, what a display $\:D/$
Where abouts are you melja? no thunderstorm activity in rangora from what i see

I am in Twizel for the weekend mike.

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 22/02/2015 08:50

That 500mb vortex is still in the charts for tomorrow Monday so the farmers could do well. Fairly widespread shower/thunder risk tomorrow.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 22/02/2015 09:08

I'm in taupo on holiday so good place to catch a storm.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sun 22/02/2015 09:20

That 500mb vortex chart for Monday does look promising,i told a few farmers yesterday that we could be in for a few showers tomorrow.

Had a whopping 1.5mm of rain overnight,will i need to full some sandbags

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 22/02/2015 09:30

MS sticking with just a moderate risk over the central N.I. for this arvo...

MetService - Thunderstorm Outlook

Valid to: Midnight Sunday 22 Feb 2015
Issued at: 8:54am Sunday 22 Feb 2015

An upper cold pool has produced isolated thunderstorms this morning over the upper South Island, and temperatures remain cold in the upper atmosphere across central New Zealand this afternoon and evening, while sea breeze convergences set up across central and northern New Zealand.

Showers over the Nelson and Marlborough ranges are likely to continue into the af and evening, and there is a moderate risk there of thunderstorms producing localised heavy rain and small hail.

Showers are also likely over Wellington and Wairarapa. Some of these showers may be heavy, and there is a moderate risk of a few thunderstorms in these areas along with small hail.

Over the central North Island, an old frontal zone is forecast to become reactivated due to daytime surface heating and cooling aloft, and there is a moderate risk of thunderstorms with heavy rain up to 25mm/hr and small hail.

A larger area of low risk surrounds these areas.

Elsewhere, no thunderstorms or significant convection expected.

MetService T-storm Outlook map - Feb 22.png

03Stormchaser · Unread post by **03Stormchaser** » Sun 22/02/2015 16:14

Perfect weather at Lake Heron yesterday, rain moved in about 9:30pm seemed quite heavy at times, thought there was a chance for a rumble or two but nothing that I noticed, no cell coverage up that way to check.

Heron.jpg

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sun 22/02/2015 16:35

A good solid heavy fall of rain here around 3:30am. woke me up. Was expecting a clap of thunder but didn't occur.
Would been about 5mms in about 10 minutes I would say. Haven't seen rain like this all year!

spwill · Unread post by **spwill** » Sun 22/02/2015 17:55

Isolated thunder for Waikato this evening, some cells showing up near Hamilton currently.

A cloudy day here with a couple of weak showers, a little on the humid side, max 25C dewpoint 17C.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 22/02/2015 17:59

Yea look real heavy up north... havnt heard any Thunder yet....

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 22/02/2015 18:11

Severe T-storm Warning just issued for BoP...

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Thunderstorm Warning(s) in force for:
Bay of Plenty Radar Area
…
MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Warning - Feb 22, 05.56pm.png
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

Issued by MetService at 05:56 pm Sunday 22 February 2015.
Valid until 06:45 pm Sunday 22 February 2015.

This warning affects people in the following local government areas:
TAUPO.

At 05:45 pm, MetService weather radar detected severe thunderstorms near TAUPO and WAIRAKEI.

These severe thunderstorms are moving towards the eastnortheast, and are expected to lie near TAUPO and WAIRAKEI at 06:15 pm and near TAUPO and WAIRAKEI at 06:45 pm.

These thunderstorms are expected to be accompanied by very heavy rain.

Very heavy rain can cause surface and/or flash flooding about streams, gullies and urban areas, and make driving conditions extremely hazardous.

The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management advises that as storms approach you should:
- Take shelter, preferably indoors away from windows;
- Avoid sheltering under trees, if outside;
- Move cars under cover or away from trees;
- Secure any loose objects around your property;
- Check that drains and gutters are clear;
- Be ready to slow down or stop, if driving.
During and after the storm, you should also:
- Beware of fallen trees and power lines;
- Avoid streams and drains as you may be swept away in flash flooding.

This warning is due to be updated or lifted by 06:45 pm Sunday 22 February 2015.

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sun 22/02/2015 18:31

Hmm… Been replaced by a Watch...

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Valid to: 9:30pm Sunday 22 Feb 2015
Issued at: 6:10pm Sunday 22 Feb 2015

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Feb 22, 06.10pm.png
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Issued by MetService at 06:10 pm Sunday 22 February 2015
Valid until 09:30 pm Sunday 22 February 2015
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Waikato
Taupo
Gisborne
Hawkes Bay

Slow moving heavy showers have formed in eastern Waikato, Taupo, and inland parts of the Hawkes Bay and Gisborne. A few of these may be thundery and SEVERE, producing localised downpours of 25 to 40mm/hr. Shower activity should ease tonight. Rainfall of this intensity can cause flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

Issued by: gullery
This watch will be updated by: 09:00 pm Sunday 22 February 2015

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 22/02/2015 18:37

The Met Service should use flash flood warnings for these types of set ups. Severe thunderstorms just seems to be inappropriate with the wet set ups where the hazard is just heavy rain. I like the way the Americans do things regards forecasting, they have an excellent flash flood warning system.

Tornado Tim · Unread post by **Tornado Tim** » Sun 22/02/2015 18:42

NZstorm wrote:The Met Service should use flash flood warnings for these types of set ups. Severe thunderstorms just seems to be inappropriate with the wet set ups where the hazard is just heavy rain. I like the way the Americans do things regards forecasting, they have an excellent flash flood warning system.

Agreed.... But there is no avenue to do so, yet...

Manukau heads obs · Sun 22/02/2015 19:10

Is Jamies rain gauge blocked again?

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 22/02/2015 19:20

Not sure. I could ring dad I suppose. Going by the radar it looks slightly to the east.

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sun 22/02/2015 19:25

Dad saying it's very close and is about to start raining. So no blocked rain gauge.

David · Unread post by **David** » Sun 22/02/2015 19:35

Just back inside from watering the garden, it sure is dry and boy there are some gigantic cracks in the ground haha. Lucky for you Waikato guys getting a good downpour

RichyDunedin · Unread post by **RichyDunedin** » Sun 22/02/2015 20:05

Had a big thunderstorm here in Mossburn yesterday evening(40min east of Te Anau). Lots of close lightning and the thunder had the dog hiding out for two hours.

Manukau heads obs · Sun 22/02/2015 20:26

the rain band in the waikato and to the North might drift this way as the easterly takes hold again

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sun 22/02/2015 21:08

Manukau heads obs wrote:the rain band in the waikato and to the North might drift this way as the easterly takes hold again

There will be unstable conditions over Northland Auckland tomorrow but a question mark over whether a west coast sea breeze can develop. A shower on the cards anyway.

Chris Raine · Unread post by **Chris Raine** » Sun 22/02/2015 23:29

Short sharp shower in Runanga around 1530 today gave 1.5mm .Few isolated Cb's wafting around to south east at dusk

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 23/02/2015 13:51

Had a few of these brief little heavy showers coming through since this morn…

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Mon 23/02/2015 13:56

I see MS have a Severe T-storm Watch out for the Wairarapa/Tararua Ranges...

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Watch

Valid to: 9:00pm Monday 23 Feb 2015
Issued at: 1:25pm Monday 23 Feb 2015

MetService - Severe Thunderstorm Watch - Feb 23, 01.25pm.png
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Issued by MetService at 01:25 pm Monday 23 February 2015
Valid until 09:00 pm Monday 23 February 2015
This watch affects people in the following weather forecast districts:
Tararua
Kapiti-Horowhenua
Wairarapa
Wellington

Thunderstorms over Wairarapa and the Tararua Range have the potential to become SEVERE this afternoon and early evening, with localised downpours of 25-40mm/hr. Rainfall of this intensity can cause flash flooding, especially about low-lying areas such as streams, rivers or narrow valleys, and may also lead to slips. Driving conditions will also be hazardous with surface flooding and poor visibility in heavy rain.

Note: A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favourable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. People in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for possible Severe Thunderstorm Warnings.

Issued by: Mads Naeraa
This watch will be updated by: 07:00 pm Monday 23 February 2015

David · Unread post by **David** » Mon 23/02/2015 14:07

Nice heavy shower at the moment, loving watching and listening to the rain pound down

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