(Ex) Tropical Cyclone Pam effects on NZ

[NZstorm]

Looking more likely a deep tropical storm will impact New Zealands weather in Late week end/early next week.

The storm will be within the entrance region of the subtropical jet which is a favourable area for development.

Latest gfs output for midnight Sunday. The 200mb winds highlighted.

[Manukau heads obs]

met service are not mincing their words in the latest severe weather outlook
http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... er-outlook

[Nev]

Note that MS make no ref to Pam being an 'ex-TC'. JTWC also state in this morn's Advisory that they expect Pam to begin extra-tropical transition near Tua 96 (Sunday morn NZDT) and to complete transition by Tau 120 (Monday morn NZDT). So with that in mind, I've slightly tweaked the title of this thread for now.

[Dean.]

Perhaps drought breaking southeasterly rains for the eastern S.I...would be nice! as it slides away next week.

[spwill]

Yes there is a chance this system will bring rain to the east of the SI.

Latest ECMWF for Monday showing widespread rain over the NI

[Tornado Tim]

UKMO Deterministic is not inline with the LLCC track with other deterministic models (EC,GFS,WRF) atm.

It has the center of (ex) TC Pam entering the BOP on Monday at 1 PM according to the 00Z run. I would tend to ignore that forecast at this stage.

However there has been westward progression towards the mainland over the past 72 hours with all models, which is of concern.
In the next 48 hours or so we should start to get a fuller picture what's going to happen this weekend.

[Manukau heads obs]

that' reminds me of the Wahine storm that one does Tim
(which then met a cold front coming up from the south)

[harleyb]

Radio NZ news at 12 made it sound like Armageddon coming to NZ... a bit premature I think...

[David]

Metservice think it will come close enough to give us some much needed rain, I see they have heavy falls and southerly gales forecast for Monday.

[spwill]

Given Auckland City has some sheltering in a east/southeast flow and the current GFS has the low a bit further east we may not see much rain around here, time will tell.

I see the start of the Volvo Ocean race from Auckland on Sunday has been delayed.

[03Stormchaser]

Massive swell along the East NI

Capture.JPG

http://www.surf-forecast.com/

[David]

Latest GFS has hardly any rain for us here now Still only on 58mm for the year!

[spwill]

A small change in the track of this tropical system can make a big difference in the weather we get from it.

We missed the showers here yesterday but did catch a few showers overnight.

[Nev]

Severe Weather Watch for Sunday/Monday…

MetService - Severe Weather Watch

Valid to 9:52am Saturday 14 Mar 2015

SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR NORTHLAND, COROMANDEL PENINSULA, BAY OF PLENTY ROTORUA, GISBORNE, HAWKES BAY

ISSUED BY METSERVICE AT 0952hrs 13-Mar-2015

GALE SOUTHEASTERLIES FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HEAVY RAIN ABOUT GISBORNE, NORTHERN HAWKES BAY AND THE COROMANDEL PENINSULA

Cyclone Pam, currently located near Vanuatu, is forecast to track southwards over the coming days and pass east of the country during Monday and Tuesday. There is some uncertainty as to how close to the North Island the eventual cyclone track will be, however, it has the potential to be a significant event, with strong south to southeast winds and rain expected over much of the North Island during Monday.

This WATCH is for severe gales in the following areas...

NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA, including GREAT BARRIER ISLAND: Gale south to southeast winds expected to develop Sunday evening, and may rise to severe gale for a time Sunday night and early Monday morning,before easing by Monday afternoon.

EASTERN BAY OF PLENTY and GISBORNE: Gale south to southeast winds expected to develop early Monday morning, and may rise to severe gale for a time during Monday, before easing Tuesday morning.

This WATCH is also for heavy rain in the following areas...

EASTERN NORTHLAND and COROMANDEL PENINSULA: Rain is expected to become heavy from Sunday evening, then ease late Monday morning. Rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria during this time - greater than 80mm in 18 hours.

GISBORNE and NORTHERN HAWKES BAY: Rain is expected to become heavy from early Monday morning,especially about the ranges, easing Tuesday morning. Rainfall accumulations may exceed warning criteria during this time - greater than 100mm in 24 hours.

This is a developing situation and people are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecasts in the event further areas are added, or part of this Watch is upgraded to a Warning.

This Watch will be reviewed by 9pm Friday 13 March

[David]

Looking at NZ Herald's website you'd think it was going to make a direct hit on the North Island

[harleyb]

Looking at NZ Herald's website you'd think it was going to make a direct hit on the North Island

...and so the media storm begins... irrespective of the weather

[Manukau heads obs]

latest BOM map is bad news for NI if it pans out
(a closer path is looking more and more likely, as it keeps on currently traveling SSW)

[03Stormchaser]

CWU getting a little carried away with the TC action around at the moment.

[Richard]

Well done putting them right on TS Bavi Steven,and besides its north of the equator so it will never be a cyclone.

[Orion]

Meanwhile, I wonder what the likely effects will be on our own Chatham Islands in a few days' time

[David]

Metservice warning has gusts up to 160 km/h for Eastern Bay of Plenty. That's bound to do some damage!

[jamie]

I wonder how much detail and structure the northland rain radar will pick up when Pam moves past.

[David]

GFS suggests we may get 50mm out of Pam, that would be most excellent

[Nev]

As posted in the Weather Abroad section, here are the last Nadi and latest JTWC track-maps…

[Nev]

I see in MS's TC Pam Blog that they will be issuing cyclone-tracks. Now there's a first.