El Nino 2015/16

[Richard]

Its says

"A textbook El Nino spring (September - November) is much colder than usual,with frequent, stormy, southwesterlies across the country," noted Griffiths.

I remember the spring of 1997 as having a lot of westerly quarter winds while been very warm here in Canterbury.
Can someone drag out the figures for that spring period ?

[spwill]

Yes Gisborne to Canterbury can end up with of fohn wind patterns so drier and also warmer.

[Manukau heads obs]

Upper north island also likely to have a relatively dry second half of spring and into summer...i.e an early dry
due to persistant winds ...there will be weak fronts and showers but the wind will quickly dry that out...that will be the problem

[NZstorm]

Upper north island also likely to have a relatively dry second half of spring and into summer...i.e an early dry
due to persistant winds ...there will be weak fronts and showers but the wind will quickly dry that out...that will be the problem

Yes, that is the most likely outcome for the north from this El Nino. The wind can be a real problem with high evapotranspiration. I think August and September will still be good for rain in the north and hopefully a few thunderstorms and then the stable ridge with lots of SW wind arrives.

[RWood]

Its says

"A textbook El Nino spring (September - November) is much colder than usual,with frequent, stormy, southwesterlies across the country," noted Griffiths.

I remember the spring of 1997 as having a lot of westerly quarter winds while been very warm here in Canterbury.
Can someone drag out the figures for that spring period ?

November 1997 was very warm and dry in eastern areas, with record sunshine in Marlborough and Nelson, where Cape Campbell (from memory) started a 6-month spell which set a NZ low record for 6-monthly rainfall. It was colder and wetter than average in the west and southwest of the SI, and for NZ overall the month was about 0.2C warmer than average (in the 7SS).

[spwill]

There are examples of wet cold months ( in Spring) for the eastern South Island with mod -strong El Nino however you would bet on it being a drier and warmer than normal Spring there.

[tich]

There may be frequent warm spells in the east during an El Nino spring, but also frequent wintry southwesterly/southerly changes. I remember snow to quite low levels (about 400m) on Banks Peninsula in November 1997.

[TonyT]

This El Nino doesnt have all the same characteristics as some previous and more "classic" ones. One key difference is on-going warmer than usual waters in the Coral Sea and off the Queensland coast. I have a theory that this is helping maintain southwest rather than west to northwest flow over the Tasman Sea at present, and this may continue through the spring months. So although things may well tend to drier than normal for the east coast, it may not be markedly warmer.

[Storm Struck]

There generally is more warmer NW flows in an el nino pattern during spring but does it bring more cold surges than a spring without el nino?.
I seem to recall the winters/ spring of 2000-2004 as being more typically SW with most snow falling further south as weve seen this year so far, and a run of more frosts than say that of the past 7-8 years.
Remember the month of December 2004 where 124mm fell up until xmas eve, and it was also alot colder than usual.
El nino is better I think overall in terms of storms in Canterbury during spring, but im sure each el nino pattern varies.

[jamie]

I was reading about this warm spot of water last week.

Is this helping to cause winter tropical cyclones that we have right now?

[TonyT]

I was reading about this warm spot of water last week.

Is this helping to cause winter tropical cyclones that we have right now?

I wouldn't say its causing them, but they wouldn't be able to form if the seas there were cooler than usual for the time of year, which is what normally happens with a developing El Nino.

[NZstorm]

I had a look at the temperature data for the summer 1982/83 El Nino and it was a shocker. Hope we don't get that kind of summer in Auckland! It was a cool one.
Invercargill got the worst of it but nowhere did that well although Christchurch had 5 30C days in January.

[Manukau heads obs]

I remember the 82/83 El Nino
I remember at the time the sea temperatures in the Tasman were reported as being much below normal
There was alot of anticyclonic gloom with any high pressure too

[RWood]

I had a look at the temperature data for the summer 1982/83 El Nino and it was a shocker. Hope we don't get that kind of summer in Auckland! It was a cool one.
Invercargill got the worst of it but nowhere did that well although Christchurch had 5 30C days in January.

Jan 1983 was sunnier than normal in the east from Ch'ch northwards, and of course very dry in the east and in Wellington, where it was also sunnier than normal but very cool. Tmeans were not far below normal in the east from N Canty northwards. Cold and wet for January in the west and south of the SI, and also Central Otago/Lakes. I was in Alexandra for over half of the month, and its stats would make it the worst January on record there, except possibly for January 1958. I greatly enjoyed a couple of days in Ch'ch on the return trip home, one of them being a 30C+ day with radio cricket commentary from Australia to enjoy (NZ chased down a then unlikely target of 297 against England). More notable for me locally in 1983 was some dull miserable weather in Sept-Oct - September was stormy but October's unusual "relief" from a September westerly hammering came in the form of very drab easterlies and exceptionally low sunshine over a large portion of the country.

Feb 1983 continued the coolness theme but was dry everywhere except in Southland and South Otago, with Picton and Havelock recording nil rainfall in the dry SW flows.

Invercargill clocked just 84 hours of sun in March and 1333 for the year, with Musselburgh not far ahead with 1376.

[harleyb]

It will be an interesting spring along the NZ coast, with major king tides due at end of August, September (especially) and October. The chances of some of these tides coinciding with an El Nino-enhanced spring storm must be reasonably good?

[spwill]

I had a look at the temperature data for the summer 1982/83 El Nino and it was a shocker. Hope we don't get that kind of summer in Auckland! It was a cool one.
Invercargill got the worst of it but nowhere did that well although Christchurch had 5 30C days in January.

The Summer of 1997/98 was good ( strong El Nino).
We had a good Summer in Auckland with the last El Nino 2009/10 ( was a mod El Nino)
The Niwa summary for that Summer
https://www.niwa.co.nz/sites/niwa.co.nz ... _FINAL.pdf

I should add we had a great week of thunderstorms in Waikato in Jan of that summer

[Nev]

Interesting article by Paul Gorman this morn…

'Old diary sheds light on weather trends' - Stuff

[NZstorm]

Paul Gormans ob's are reflective of the whole country.
2 El Nino events, both broke temperature records across NZ I seem to recall.

[Manukau heads obs]

did you guys watch the program last night TV1 about the Trimarang Yahct Rose Noeal?
I seem to remember was that in the late 80's when there was a big La Nina and lots of easterly winds...and thats why it ended up on Gt Barrier Island instead of Easter Island

[jamie]

did you guys watch the program last night TV1 about the Trimarang Yahct Rose Noeal?
I seem to remember was that in the late 80's when there was a big La Nina and lots of easterly winds...and thats why it ended up on Gt Barrier Island instead of Easter Island

Yea was not a bad movie I thought. Amazing luck. It was 1989 wasn't it? Lots of easterly winds would do it. Amazing that it curled right around east cape and then the coromandel

[Manukau heads obs]

if it was 1989 then yup, was lots of easterly winds.
the trees here started leaning/growing the other way even!
and we had heaps of sand on the west coast beaches that build up

was a really strange summer and autumn

[James J.]

"Interesting article by Paul Gorman this morn… "

In other words..... predicting the weather continues to be...... unpredictable.

[RWood]

Also interesting in the 97-98 event massive rainfalls on the W Coast continued right up to October 1998, when La Nina was getting well established. Re 82-83; Jan 83 was much nicer in Chch than in Central Otago, which had one of its worst ever midsummer months - cool, very cloudy and comparatively wet.

[spwill]

The is also the Southern Annular Mode which will influence the type of El Nino we have.

[Richard]

An idea how the Southern Annular Mode influences the El Nino?