El Nino 2015/16

[wembley]

There is a strong possibility a "modoki" El Nino could develop this year according to the media.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

What the 'ordinary' does that mean?

[Nev]

The somewhat contradictory media story that wembley referred to is probably this one…

'El Nino weather conditions likely for NZ' - Stuff

'Modoki El Nino' is the type of weak El Nino we've been flirting with in recent months. The term 'Modoki' was introduced by climate researcher, Prof. Yamagata in 2004 meaning 'same but different' in Japanese. Other names might include, 'Mock El Nino' or (as Brian has put it) a 'Clayton's El Nino'. Basically it means that we have seen strong indicators of El Nino in some areas, such as a warming in the central tropical Pacific, but not in others, such as a lack of warming in the eastern Pacific.

The graphic below shows the difference between a normal El Nino and the so-called 'Modoki El Nino'…

Modoki El Nino & La Nina.jpg

(source)

As I mentioned last year, long-range model outlooks made around this time of year, as temperature gradients across the tropical Pacific Ocean naturally weaken, tend to have a reduced level of accuracy. This is known as 'the autumn predictability barrier'. The current degree of confidence that warming above El Nino thresholds will occur by June is due more to a strong consensus among models.

[Manukau heads obs]

good info their Nev

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, thanks for that

[Richard]

yes well done Nev,learnt something new to start the day

[Nev]

Huh?

'Cyclone staved off possible drought' - The Northern Advocate

...WeatherWatch head analyst Philip Duncan said Northland had seen a mild summer thanks to a La Nina weather pattern. "Northland, often at times this cyclone season, has had more of a La Nina pattern - the opposite of El Nino - which encourages more cloud, more easterlies and generally a 'not so hot' summer."

Mr Duncan said Northland had felt some affects of the weather pattern.

[Manukau heads obs]

I would not have called the summer we had a La nina pattern
more of a neutral pattern?

[Nev]

Yes, the SOI has generally been neutral leaning towards El Nino since at least last July…

BoM SOI to Apr 21.png

(source)

El Nino and La Nina trends are measured over a few months, not simply day-by-day or week-by-week weather patterns. And for the record, Northland's sunshine this summer was above normal, with January being one of the sunniest on record.

[Tornado Tim]

Huh?

'Cyclone staved off possible drought' - The Northern Advocate

...WeatherWatch head analyst Philip Duncan said Northland had seen a mild summer thanks to a La Nina weather pattern. "Northland, often at times this cyclone season, has had more of a La Nina pattern - the opposite of El Nino - which encourages more cloud, more easterlies and generally a 'not so hot' summer."

Mr Duncan said Northland had felt some affects of the weather pattern.

Yup that makes no sense at all...... a complete and total contradiction right there if ever I saw one.....

The Nino3.4 Index suggests that we are indeed heading towards a El Nino.

[Manukau heads obs]

the Nino index is based on sea surface temperatures
but the atmosphere keeps on getting out of sync with that,..i.e see
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/i ... .jsp?c=soi
which is relaxing again

[Nev]

It's official. The BoM declared yesterday that El Nino thresholds have been reached in the tropical Pacific for the first time since March 2010. The onset of this El Nino is a little earlier than usual. El Nino events typically commence between Jun and Nov.

[Manukau heads obs]

that's in reference to the sea temperatures
the atmosphere will likely now swing more and more El Nino like going forward and stay that way...will mean a stormy winter spring for NZ I suspect

[Nev]

From yesterday's ENSO summary…

Bureau of Meteorology - ENSO Wrap-Up

El Niño in the tropical Pacific
Issued on 12 May 2015

The tropical Pacific is in the early stages of El Niño. Based upon model outlooks and current observations, the Bureau's ENSO Tracker has been raised to El Niño status.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicators have shown a steady trend towards El Niño levels since the start of the year. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean have exceeded El Niño thresholds for the past month, supported by warmer-than-average waters below the surface. Trade winds have remained consistently weaker than average since the start of the year, cloudiness at the Date Line has increased and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has remained negative for several months. These indicators suggest the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have started to couple and reinforce each other, indicating El Niño is likely to persist in the coming months.

International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds through the coming southern winter and at least into spring.
...

[Manukau heads obs]

now, that does not read like the news headlines..it more reads , yeah, El Nino conditions are likely to persist for some months to come
the news headlines are reading major el nino coming,doom and gloom...

[Nev]

Yeah, labelling it as the start of 'a substantial El Nino event' may be a little premature. NIWA not 100% convinced just yet either. Probably because the SOI is still a little erratic, although that'll probably settle down now that the monsoon season is over…

'Scientists debate El Nino likelihood' - Radio NZ
Last updated on May 13 around 2:15pm

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology yesterday announced a substantial El Nino event had begun. …

NIWA principal climate scientist Brett Mullan did not believe there was enough evidence to support Australia's claim.

"Our view is it's maybe a little bit premature to call it more than a weak event; it's certainly premature to call it a strong event at this stage."

But Dr Mullan said NIWA believed there was an 80 percent chance of an El Nino event developing. ...

[RWood]

I see the Stuff version of Metservice's outlook has a "cooler" winter and a likely cold spring. Premature I think. The Nino underway in 1987 produced one of the warmest winters on record!

[NZstorm]

June looks to be tracking warmer than average for Auckland due to a persistent WSW wind. Ricky's Grey Lynn showing the mean temp 12.7C for the first half of June.

An interesting chart published from NOAA showing the affects of El Nino years on the global mean temperature.

[jamie]

very el nino like weather the past few days

[spwill]

In Winter a disturbed pattern generally leads to warmer than average temps mostly due to warmer nights. Anticyclonic winters are cold.

Greylynn showing an average max this month of 17.4C, ave min 9.4C. I see Niwa has the long term June average for Auckland at max 15.5C, min 8.1C

[Manukau heads obs]

An interesting chart published from NOAA showing the affects of El Nino years on the global mean temperature.

yes, it could easily end up being the worlds hottest year on record

last year was the equal hottest ?

[David]

Strong El Nino now according to Metservice http://about.metservice.com/homepagerss/

A major El Nino

Over the last few months, El Nino has continued to intensify. The ocean and the atmosphere have reinforced each other, helping to strengthen the climate pattern which resides in the tropical Pacific Ocean. "We have a major El Nino in play," said MetService meteorologist Georgina Griffiths.

Warmer than usual seas in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is one of the obvious signs of an El Nino - the so-called El Nino 'warm tongue'. This pool of unusually warm water upsets the normal balance of trade winds and weather in the tropics. The sea temperatures across the eastern half of the Pacific are now in excess of 2C above normal. "The warmth in the Pacific Ocean has now reached levels not seen since the 1997/98 El Nino," commented Griffiths.

So far this winter, we have already seen solid signs of El Nino in the New Zealand region. During June and July, New Zealand experienced more frequent southerly outbreaks than usual - standard El Nino winter fare for us. The southerlies have resulted in below average temperatures, overall, for the South Island in June and July and for the North Island since the middle of June. The seas around our coastline are also colder than usual,particularly off the east coast.

El Nino will likely continue into early 2016, and there is every indication that it will remain strong for the rest of 2015. El Nino traditionally peaks towards the end of the calendar year, but it does pay to remember that any effects felt here in New Zealand may not peak at the same time.

"A textbook El Nino spring (September - November) is much colder than usual,with frequent, stormy, southwesterlies across the country," noted Griffiths. "As we head towards Christmas, those winds typically tilt westerly, drying out eastern parts of both Islands."

"New Zealand farmers need to monitor this El Nino," said Griffiths. "While El Nino effects tend to diminish as you move away from the tropics, New Zealand has shown clear impacts from strong El Nino events in the past. We urge farmers to investigate what their typical El Nino response is." One way to do that is to subscribe to the free MetService Rural Outlook via the link at http://metservice.com/rural/monthly-outlook.

And as always, keep up to date with the latest forecasts and any watches/warnings at metservice.com or on mobile devices at m.metservice.com. You can also follow our updates on MetService TV, at MetService New Zealand on Facebook, @metservice on Twitter and at blog.metservice.com

[Manukau heads obs]

not good for dairy farmers really....low payout and looking like an early dry , for some dairy areas
and not good for North Canterbury

[Tim S]

not good for dairy farmers really....low payout and looking like an early dry , for some dairy areas
and not good for North Canterbury

... according to forecasts. Economic outlook is gloomy but elnino years are hit and miss. Let's hope it is a hit!

[NZstorm]

Its the wind I am not looking forward too.