Cold Weather on the way plus good sub antartic storm brewing

[talbotmj15]

I am struggling to find out how Met Service are going for a 400m low risk heavy snow for Canterbury. Thur-Fri. Models are not really showing it to be cold enough for low level snow. Also noted a good low brewing about 10 days out which i wouldnt normally menthion but its always good to see what peoples thoughts are

[Bradley]

-4C at 850hpa for a time over inland Canterbury on Thursday - easily cold enough for snow down to 400m but yes, not sure where the moisture is coming from. At the end of the day they have only said the risk is low though, chances are it won't even move to moderate...

[talbotmj15]

Im staggered there is still a low risk warning for heavy snow to 400m for Canterbury. The models the Met Service are using must be seeing something completely different. As what im seeing is clearly at odds with there forecast.

[Razor]

Im staggered there is still a low risk warning for heavy snow to 400m for Canterbury. The models the Met Service are using must be seeing something completely different. As what im seeing is clearly at odds with there forecast.

Metvuw shows a wee flick Thurs night Fri morning. Probably not significant, but hey they have a LOW risk warning.

[Dean.]

Im staggered there is still a low risk warning for heavy snow to 400m for Canterbury. The models the Met Service are using must be seeing something completely different. As what im seeing is clearly at odds with there forecast.

It will be dropped today

[Manukau heads obs]

the BOM model now has this rapidly deepening tasman low to cross the NI
(GFS has had it for a day or so now)

[Richard]

With only about 1 mm of rain forcasted and the wording used by the MS 'rain developing' just doesn't match,should be read as 'possible shower' instead.

[Bradley]

Im staggered there is still a low risk warning for heavy snow to 400m for Canterbury. The models the Met Service are using must be seeing something completely different. As what im seeing is clearly at odds with there forecast.

It will be dropped today

It sure was dropped - and replaced with a heavy snow warning for Sunday instead

[Karliosis]

It sure was dropped - and replaced with a heavy snow warning for Sunday instead

That might get dropped too, pretty significant model disagreement at the moment. GFS showing the cold blast more or less missing the country.

[melja]

Im not sure were your seeing a heavy snow warning for sunday Bradley? its just a outlook and its a low chance which is only a 1 in 5 chance.

[talbotmj15]

Im still clearly not seeing this potential big event coming this weekend. What i do see is a big low Next weekend which going by latest models is super impressive and could be pose a big problem.

[Bradley]

ACCESS now has 850hpa temps of -8C in the latest run for a time over Canterbury, very cold for this time of year!

[tich]

Deja vu - we had very cold outbreaks this time last year and the year before. Both following warmer than normal May weather.

[Dean.]

The usual band of showers before a coastal chain set up for Canterbury...yawn

[Storm Struck]

Yes very much a SW event this so Southland and Otago will get the worst of it, snow showers to sea level overnight and into Monday heavier above 100-200m.
Canterbury will get a sniff at the blast tomorrow late afternoon/evening with a change to gale SW winds showers hail and maybe a peel of thunder or two, the snow level will be around 400m when it comes in.
But this will retreat to the coastal fringes if not just the penninsula for Sunday night and into Monday with snow falling as low as 100m there.
Otherwise a fine Monday for the city with gale winds.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

I'm in a quite agreement with you Jason, on that fact.

[hozza95]

Clear crisp night in southland, should get a decent dump of snow here at 200m

[Fujita Phil]

Thought this was a non event but realised it just wasn't reaching Chch ☺

[Richard]

Yes will be a non event for most of Canterbury,but as seen to often lately the forecast doesn't match the next two day rainfall accumulation of nil yet the MS say for Sunday
(Fine at first with westerlies. A change spreading north during the afternoon to strong cold southwesterlies, bringing a period of showers with snow down to 400 metres.)

[Razor]

Yes won't be much by the looks for anyone north of the Waitaki, except Banks Peninsula

[hozza95]

Sleet here so far and pretty chilly on 5.5

[Manukau heads obs]

the next front arriving now in the far south has lots of cold air and snow showers behind it
looks like eastern Otago/easter southland should just catch those

[Razor]

Stunning day again here in ChCh. Best May ever in my life of living in ChCh, Wellington or Auckland

[Bradley]

Metservice have hugely downgraded the forecast for snow in the hill suburbs of Christchurch- completely gone out of the forecast now...

[RWood]

Stunning day again here in ChCh. Best May ever in my life of living in ChCh, Wellington or Auckland

A very mild and dry one for you but sunshine not exceptional. May 1938 would probably be the benchmark - 17mm only at Gardens, over 180 hrs sun and from memory only also very mild (the 7SS has it as a warm month for NZ).