General June Weather

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Razor
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General June Weather

Unread post by Razor »

I'll kick us off.... something is certainly brewing for week 1 of June. Maybe enough for its own topic in due course but its a bit far out for that yet.

The GFS runs are certainly packing a punch for a S-SE moisture maker for eastern South Island, and there are lows all over the shop for everyone else. Could be a fun week to kick off winter proper.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Dean. »

Razor wrote:I'll kick us off.... something is certainly brewing for week 1 of June. Maybe enough for its own topic in due course but its a bit far out for that yet.

The GFS runs are certainly packing a punch for a S-SE moisture maker for eastern South Island, and there are lows all over the shop for everyone else. Could be a fun week to kick off winter proper.
My kind of set up..... 8)
Most models similar agreement,EC a day later
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

The models have gone nuts the last day or do in regards to a number of lows hitting the South Island mid to late next week along with some polar air as well and no doubt they will change hugely over the next 2-3 days but I am getting more and more convinced something huge is coming for somewhere in the South Island next week, just a question of exactly where!
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

Bradley wrote:The models have gone nuts the last day or do in regards to a number of lows hitting the South Island mid to late next week along with some polar air as well and no doubt they will change hugely over the next 2-3 days but I am getting more and more convinced something huge is coming for somewhere in the South Island next week, just a question of exactly where!
Going by all the models I've seen the last couple days it's going to hit pretty much the entire eastern SI coast, looking like a real action packed week. I'm suppose to be going paintballing on the 3rd so all I ask is sun for that one day but it looks to be one of the worst! Typical
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by SnwAddct »

Wow looks interesting! What sort of freezing level are we likely to see with these systems?
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

matttbs wrote:
Bradley wrote:The models have gone nuts the last day or do in regards to a number of lows hitting the South Island mid to late next week along with some polar air as well and no doubt they will change hugely over the next 2-3 days but I am getting more and more convinced something huge is coming for somewhere in the South Island next week, just a question of exactly where!
Going by all the models I've seen the last couple days it's going to hit pretty much the entire eastern SI coast, looking like a real action packed week. I'm suppose to be going paintballing on the 3rd so all I ask is sun for that one day but it looks to be one of the worst! Typical
Are you seeing any low level snow at the moment Matt? Going by GFS Wednesday could be get quite interesting for eastern areas north of about Ashburton for a low level advective event?
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

I don't wanna put too much faith in that kind of thing this early on but when I saw the gfs this morning it had around 71mm moisture, 532 THK and 850hpa temps of around -5 which to me seems very fishy...it does look like the potential for an advective event. As with all warm advective events it's hard to put a number on how low snow will fall so far out so I think we shall just wait a few more days and see what happens before any calls are made to how low it will snow..
Ha that last bit rhymes..
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

Well said Matt, this event is similar in a lot of to the June 2012 event but it seems to me the 2012 event had a 1-2C colder airmass to play with, that may well in the end be the deciding factor as to whether or not any parts of the South island get a low-level snow event…
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Razor »

I see Tony over at Farmlands is calling it as 400m snowline at this stage.

Still to early to really be confident, lets see how the models look on the weekend
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by hozza95 »

Met service have put out a outlook for southland & otago for snow to 200 m

" The flow tends southeast over the lower South Island during Tuesday as the low begins to cross the country, with southerlies spreading to most places on Wednesday as the low moves to the east. There is a low confidence of heavy snow above 200 metres about Southland and Otago from late Tuesday to Wednesday.

This is a developing situation and people are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecast."
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

Very interesting indeed, something big is brewing...
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

Metservice going for snow around the 500-600m level for banks peninsula on Wednesday and Thursday, seems to line up with the snow level GFS is forecasting at present:

Wed 3 Rain setting in and snow lowering to 600 metres on Banks Peninsula. Cold southwesterlies strengthening.
Thu 4 Showery with snow down to 500 metres on Banks Peninsula.Strong cold southerlies.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by David »

Looks like a drier couple of weeks ahead. We've had over 200 mm rain in the last 30 days so some drier weather would be welcome.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by NZstorm »

David wrote:Looks like a drier couple of weeks ahead. We've had over 200 mm rain in the last 30 days so some drier weather would be welcome.
The change to drier and possibly sunnier weather is certainly welcome.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by spwill »

For Auckland I think it will be a cloudier than normal June but the upside to cloudier weather this time of year is the warmer nights, hopefully a frost free June.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

GFS going for a low off the coast of Canterbury next Thursday, has kind come out if the blue this one, can't recall seeing it this time yesterday!
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by NZ Thunderstorm Soc »

If a bit like the Dunedin situation of last week, could in for some rain here then.
Thank goodness I'm getting the spouting renewed in the next couple of days before any downpours as winter moves on.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by SnwAddct »

Looking like a good week ahead for SOME of the ski resorts..
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Richard »

Only the ones exposed to the westerly weather
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by matttbs »

SnwAddct wrote:Looking like a good week ahead for most of the ski resorts
Looks like a terrible week for mt hutt
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Bradley »

Those strong NW combined with very high temps for this time of year are really going to do a number on Mt Hutt. Any positivity that would have come with a couple of cold fronts have diminished with little or no precipitation forecast. The only bright side is that they will probably have 2-3 days that will be cold enough for snow making...
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Dean. »

The 25-30 cm base will take a hammering.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Dean. »

20 degrees here today,pleasant for June!
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by melja »

16deg here over night, gusty at times from the Nw.
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Re: General June Weather

Unread post by Richard »

15 deg here,amazing for winter.
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