Possible heavy snow June 3-4

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Sat 30/05/2015 16:23

I'll get us started. Metservice have now mentioned heavy snow to 300m South of about banks peninsula for Wednesday to Thursday next week with a moderate confidence. With a few models lining up it seems this could be the first big dump for Canterbury plains (higher areas) in a wee while. Will be interesting to see what the models do in the next few days but they seem to be sticking with this one as they have shown it for the last 3 or so days. Personally it would be nice to have a white birthday next week and with no more cows I say bring it on!

shovelopikis · Unread post by **shovelopikis** » Sat 30/05/2015 16:58

matttbs wrote:I'll get us started. Metservice have now mentioned heavy snow to 300m South of about banks peninsula for Wednesday to Thursday next week with a moderate confidence. With a few models lining up it seems this could be the first big dump for Canterbury plains (higher areas) in a wee while. Will be interesting to see what the models do in the next few days but they seem to be sticking with this one as they have shown it for the last 3 or so days. Personally it would be nice to have a white birthday next week and with no more cows I say bring it on!

Where on earth have all your cows gone...

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Sat 30/05/2015 17:10

shovelopikis wrote:
matttbs wrote:I'll get us started. Metservice have now mentioned heavy snow to 300m South of about banks peninsula for Wednesday to Thursday next week with a moderate confidence. With a few models lining up it seems this could be the first big dump for Canterbury plains (higher areas) in a wee while. Will be interesting to see what the models do in the next few days but they seem to be sticking with this one as they have shown it for the last 3 or so days. Personally it would be nice to have a white birthday next week and with no more cows I say bring it on!
Where on earth have all your cows gone...

Wintering block down by the sea which never sees much snow

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 30/05/2015 17:35

I think the hopes for any snow below 300m in Canterbury is fading every day, unless the bulk of the rain can stall by 12-24 hours into Thursday afternoon and interact with the polar air which is due around that time it just wont be cold enough for any substantial snow at all below that 300-400m mark...

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 31/05/2015 08:24

Gosh what a drastic change in Gfs this morning. Looks like a pretty minor event now, cetainly nothing to write home abiut

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 31/05/2015 09:12

ACCESS has it fizzling hugely as well Razor, will be interesting to see what this mornings model runs bring...

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sun 31/05/2015 09:20

Gee what a suprise, you guys were getting excited 6 days out and its still 3-4 days away so any models are going to chop and change.

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Sun 31/05/2015 09:45

melja wrote:Gee what a suprise, you guys were getting excited 6 days out and its still 3-4 days away so any models are going to chop and change.

Gee what a suprise, another negative comment by melja.. If you have nothing useful to say, don't say anything

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Sun 31/05/2015 09:49

Actually melja I think all of us were qualifying comments by saying how far out it was. You perhaps were not reading our posts

Orion · Unread post by **Orion** » Sun 31/05/2015 09:57

Around 8am this morning, observed interesting scattered ranks of high curved thin cloud: looked very like an "alpine" sky.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sun 31/05/2015 09:58

matttbs wrote:
melja wrote:Gee what a suprise, you guys were getting excited 6 days out and its still 3-4 days away so any models are going to chop and change.
Gee what a suprise, another negative comment by melja.. If you have nothing useful to say, don't say anything

Lol well said Matt, Melja's negative comments are becoming disturbingly common lately...not generally a good way to participate in a forum...

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Sun 31/05/2015 17:39

Looks like ridging will be north into the Tasman rather than below the Sth Is , ie SW/W not cold SE. Farmers set to dodge the bullet so not too dissapointed, just shows how much patterns can change over 3 or 4 days.

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Sun 31/05/2015 17:47

Its still going to be a typical snow event for June [was looking quite serious 4 days ago] Looking forward to some cold depression hail/thunder up my way next week.

wembley · Unread post by **wembley** » Sun 31/05/2015 22:26

So the Metservice looks like it could be about to possibly get it wrong vis-à-vis southeasterlies for the South Island, treetop?

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Mon 01/06/2015 01:17

wembley wrote:So the Metservice looks like it could be about to possibly get it wrong vis-à-vis southeasterlies for the South Island, treetop?

Ummmmm...I think metservice warnings are in line with the 'models', and in line with a typical June event ie it is winter now.

Come on people stop the sledging please and get back on topic. Play the ball not the person

treetop · Unread post by **treetop** » Mon 01/06/2015 08:24

Razor wrote:
wembley wrote:So the Metservice looks like it could be about to possibly get it wrong vis-à-vis southeasterlies for the South Island, treetop?
Ummmmm...I think metservice warnings are in line with the 'models', and in line with a typical June event ie it is winter now.

Come on people stop the sledging please and get back on topic. Play the ball not the person

Quite volatile out there. Understandably hard for Metservice with the interplay between the roaring forty depressions and subtropical air from the north. Severe anomalies are happening more around the globe ie snow in Egypt. Metservice will often go out on a limb with warnings so everyone can be prepared. Must admit though they make a few dumb errors in summer as we all do.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Mon 01/06/2015 10:01

Latest models have the cold air almost completely gone on Wednesday and Thursday, at this rate it will be lucky to snow down to 600m but it DOES have the moisture levels ramp right up again so at least some good news there for farmers in some parts of Canterbury:)

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 01/06/2015 12:25

But yet again its looking like the areas of Canterbury that really need rain are going to miss again

matttbs · Unread post by **matttbs** » Mon 01/06/2015 12:36

Richard wrote:But yet again its looking like the areas of Canterbury that really need rain are going to miss again

Yes unfortunately, it seems South Canterbury will do the best out of this one. Fingers crossed that things change and you guys get some decent rain

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Mon 01/06/2015 12:49

Its looking like about 5 - 10mm,surely its gota rain sometime.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Tue 02/06/2015 14:34

Interesting to see in its latest forecast NIWA going for over 50mm of rain for Christchurch on Wednesday and Thursday which lines up more with what ACCESS is forecasting, I usually find NIWA's rain forecast totals pretty reliable compared to the Metservice. Time will tell I guess!

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Tue 02/06/2015 17:42

That would good it that much falls,how much falls further north will be interesting, then it looks back to a week long period of winds from the west.

Razor · Unread post by **Razor** » Wed 03/06/2015 00:14

A surprising heavy shower here at him right now in Chch

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Wed 03/06/2015 06:42

Had a 1.5mm shower overnight,wonder if we will get anymore

trickytiger · Unread post by **trickytiger** » Wed 03/06/2015 07:07

Have had some good rain down here this morning, not sure of how much though as weather station isn't yet setup

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