Polar Blast - June 21-22

Tim S · Unread post by **Tim S** » Sat 20/06/2015 07:03

Well this probably deserves a topic of its own but it doesn't appear as if one exists so I will just post it in here.

The polar outbreak for Sunday evening Monday morning is looking rather severe. 850 temps at -8c for Christchurch south and staying below -6c for a good 24 hours. Not too hopeful for much snow but what does fall will settle to sea level or close to it given the temps and time of day most of the moisture is expected.

Frosts on Monday night look crazy, never seen -2 forecast for Dunners before! Will definitely be close to -10 inland.

One to watch for sure!

NZstorm · Unread post by **NZstorm** » Sat 20/06/2015 08:06

Yes, a robust polar trough will cross the South Island Sunday/Monday timeframe. Snow showers to sea level possible.

Interestingly looks like eastern North Island may get snow to low levels early week!
850mb temps Tuesday!

melja · Unread post by **melja** » Sat 20/06/2015 08:30

Metvuw showing some good moisture feeding into the coast around Chch too, and a very good wind direction for snow

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 20/06/2015 08:45

-2 and thick fog here. Winter looks like starting next week been some hard frosts already (May) but still plenty of mild days in between. Unusual for this time of year in Alex.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 20/06/2015 08:55

When looking at BOM map Sunday at 10.00am the wind flow is straight off the Antarctic , i can see a new thread coming up

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 20/06/2015 09:19

Yes indeed Richard! Great that you finally got some moisture back into your soil profile $\:D/$

snowchaser01 · Unread post by **snowchaser01** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:15

Looks good for some low level snow showers developing Sunday afternoon for southern new zealand and moving up the east coast during sunday night and into monday morning. Metvuw maps showing a more southerly flow so could be a very interesting 12 hours.
All this considered, a new thread is definitely in order. Thoughts?

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:17

Man the Southern Ocean is really firing the gun at us at the moment. The overnight snow tommorow night according to Metvuw appears to be picking up moisture and going more southerly. We still have 20 plus centimetres on the ground from Thursday. Its not a significant snow front but the frost for inland will be quite severe. -10 will cause any snow left to freeze and this will take weeks to go.

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:19

More snow on top of snow, at least this will be drier and wont be as much,lot of broken branches about this area from the heavy wet snow on Friday night

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:23

I may have already asked you this Ruchard but what is your lowest ever temp there in the basin?

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:34

Had a -15deg the morning after a 25cm deep snowfall three winter ago

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:35

Richard wrote:Had a -15deg the morning after a 25cm deep snowfall three winter ago

Yes I remember you said it killed a lot of trees that frost especially the natives.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:35

Yep I think I know the one - early June 2012 where even Darfield got to -10C

Andy · Unread post by **Andy** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:38

Bradley wrote:Yep I think I know the one - early June 2012 where even Darfield got to -10C

-10 is cold enough

Richard · Unread post by **Richard** » Sat 20/06/2015 10:51

The following day it didnt get about 1deg and then by 10.00pm it was -10deg dropping a deg every hour,i thought the way it was going it would have been -18 or so by morning, but about mid night a strong NW came up and lifted the temp to + 9 deg.

This was a blue gum that got hit badly but today is back looking fine

melja - you go past this farm most days,check out that tree now

Storm Struck · Unread post by **Storm Struck** » Sat 20/06/2015 11:03

Yeah a few surface maps have picked up the moisture totals for this cold blast, although the THK is only around 525 to 524 i like the very cold 850mb temp that stays on -9c for some time.
You dont often see it that low, which indicates to me a dusting to sea level probably between 3am and 10am then your typical chain shower set up through Ellesmere north until Monday evening.

talbotmj15 · Unread post by **talbotmj15** » Sat 20/06/2015 11:10

Yea i was thinking the same thing. Extremely cold for a southerly front. 850mb temps are crazy. -9

Nev · Unread post by **Nev** » Sat 20/06/2015 11:31

We appear to have 2 new threads this morning, plus a few posts in the general thread, all discussing the same event, so I've put them all in one thread.

SnwAddct · Unread post by **SnwAddct** » Sat 20/06/2015 12:50

Should be some much needed snow for Mt Ruapehu fields as they've been washed clean with the 100mm+ of rain today and yesterday..

jamie · Unread post by **jamie** » Sat 20/06/2015 13:13

SnwAddct wrote:Should be some much needed snow for Mt Ruapehu fields as they've been washed clean with the 100mm+ of rain today and yesterday..

Not sure there will be much snow tho. Yes to low levels but moisture looks nothing to write home about. But then again anything is better than nothing.

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 20/06/2015 13:27

EC wants nothing to do with this moisture wise only giving Christchurch between 1-3mm

mikestormchaser · Unread post by **mikestormchaser** » Sat 20/06/2015 13:29

Snow to sea level in the eastern south island, perhaps as far inland as darfield.
Moisture looks ok to me jamie, just hope it doesnt change to much in the next 12 hours.

NZ Thunderstorm Soc · Sat 20/06/2015 13:34

Not too much snow as I want to get to work, or do I ?

Should be some good hard frosts flowing, I mean following

Bradley · Unread post by **Bradley** » Sat 20/06/2015 13:57

NZ Thunderstorm Soc wrote:Not too much snow as I want to get to work, or do I ?

Should be some good hard frosts flowing, I mean following

I reckon we are going to beat our all-time record which was only set 3 weeks ago John!!

katipo · Unread post by **katipo** » Sat 20/06/2015 14:39

The metservice 3 day Rain Forcast seems to has a good proportion of prurple potential snow contour covering the South Island and even a section creeping in the ocean of the East of NZ for Monday morning although most of the precipitation for the same time seems to be between the the East Coast and the Chathams. Will be interesting to see what develops.
http://www.metservice.com/maps-radar/ra ... cast-3-day

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