Page 1 of 8
Re: General June Weather
Posted: Sat 27/06/2015 12:05
by TonyT
Bradley wrote:Can't say I've ever seen these kind of figures forecast for Christchurch before, clearly we aren't going to get that amount but the models have been consistently throwing up huge rainfall figures the last few runs now
The models are predicting a strong MJO pulse in the next 15 days through phases 6 and 7, which are the phases which tend to increase easterly anomalies over NZ (with higher pressures south of the country, and lower pressures in the Tasman sea -phase 6, and then bringing the low pressure systems from the Tasman onto the country - phase 7).
So, an expectation of a move to a less westerly orientated phase and a more easterly or depression orientated phase for the first half of July is a reasonable bet.
General July Weather
Posted: Mon 29/06/2015 07:34
by NZstorm
That system at the end of the could be a snow maker for central North Island. Ruapehu needs snow!
Re: General June Weather
Posted: Mon 29/06/2015 08:39
by jamie
NZstorm wrote:That system at the end of the could be a snow maker for central North Island. Ruapehu needs snow!
I saw that last night and thought wow but then thought its a week away so I moved on from it.
I would consider driving down for a snow chase if it comes off.
Re: General June Weather
Posted: Mon 29/06/2015 10:38
by SnwAddct
Still a way out but looking promising for Ruapehu on Saturday. Correct me if I'm wrong but thinking 850 temps at -3 would bring the snow line to about 800-900m? MetUV showing a heap of moisture for that time..
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Tue 30/06/2015 07:25
by NZstorm
Models have backed off from that NI snow sadly. Have to keep an eye on the polar jet pattern but looks to be largely stuck in the southern oceans for now. But something will eventuate soon!
We had a very stable June over the upper North Island (apart from 2nd,3rd). Hopefully July will show more instability.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Wed 01/07/2015 08:40
by SnwAddct
Possibly a huge amount of unstable cold air on the way! Some very cold temps in the mix
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Wed 01/07/2015 09:19
by shovelopikis
SnwAddct wrote:Possibly a huge amount of unstable cold air on the way! Some very cold temps in the mix
Now that's impressive...the wind chill with that's massive ..very cold for sure!
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Wed 01/07/2015 09:30
by Richard
...and spread over at least four days too
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Wed 01/07/2015 19:49
by Manukau heads obs
interesting how there is a named TC in the middle of winter in the southern hemisphere
seemingly a type of twinning from a strong westerly burst on the equator that was created initially by the sudden onset of the Indian monsoon...
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Thu 02/07/2015 13:58
by Winter is coming
shovelopikis wrote:Bradley wrote:I have to say I don’t what models Weather Watch were looking at to issue this statement only a day or so again, this event has been on the cards for at least 2 -3 days:
“Our latest guidance doesn't show any signs of any "Significant" polar blasts in the first few weeks of July”
Weatherwatch is way to conservative with their forecasts in my opinion, last blast was well understated by them...and there min/max temps from taupo are always far too mild...the town itself had a few days in the negatives and the lowest tmin forcast would be +2 to+4...can never understand why they try play safe.
Ha I thought Weather Watch usually over dramatized weather events now they are being to conservative.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Thu 02/07/2015 20:51
by matttbs
Looking like it's going to be pretty good weather for the super rugby final in Wellington this sat. Go the mighty Highlanders!
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Fri 03/07/2015 06:56
by NZstorm
Looks like some patchy cold rain for the upper North Island/Auckland Saturday. The thunderstorm potential with this system looks negligible due to fairly weak lapse rates for time of year, 6.4C and the better moisture stays well offshore. Should have a chance next week though with the colder airmass coming up, fingers crossed.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Fri 03/07/2015 13:16
by Orion
Southerly breeze strengthening here over the past half-hour or so;
looks like there is a big bank of fog or low cloud to the south, making its way in from the coast.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Sat 04/07/2015 13:09
by spwill
Been mostly dry here today, some early rain.
Mild 12 -16C. light winds
Some thunder for the far North today
General July Weather
Posted: Sat 04/07/2015 15:42
by jamie
Very warm and humid today.
Had fog nearly all day on Thursday here.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Sat 04/07/2015 17:48
by David
Forecast heavy rain never eventuated here today. 5mm light rain this morning then a dry afternoon.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Sun 05/07/2015 09:58
by NZstorm
Thunder chances over the upper North Island Tuesday.
Heavy snow up on Mt Ruapehu Tuesday with the snow level dropping to Desert Road level Tuesday night by the looks.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 07:34
by NZstorm
GFS showing airmass cold enough over the North Island on Thursday for snow showers to near sea level in the east!
700mb thickness chart.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 08:31
by Manukau heads obs
but will whakapapa get any the snow?
as they are needing new snow .....at least 0.5m to get going...
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 08:42
by NZstorm
Manukau heads obs wrote:but will whakapapa get any the snow?
as they are needing new snow .....at least 0.5m to get going...
Hopefully the freezing level can get low enough tomorrow as there will be lots of precip. The ski field is above 1600m.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 08:51
by SnwAddct
Lowers to 1600m by Lunch time tomorrow and then falls to around 800m by midnight
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 21:28
by GraemeWi
Getting whacked by a strong squall in West Auckland, looks like more on the way tonight!
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 21:36
by spwill
Some thunderstorm activity showing up on the front west of Auckland/Waikato currently.
Interesting to see the very cold air coming so far north later in the week, some rare snow on the way for some areas of the North island.
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 22:00
by NZstorm
Some instability there for the next 24hrs.
Weather has been very stable for the last 5 weeks which is unusual for winter. Generally our high winter rainfall comes from cb's,
Re: General July Weather
Posted: Mon 06/07/2015 22:36
by SnwAddct
Ruapehu has been getting hammered with snow since 7pm and theres plenty of evidence to suggest it will keep going for the next few days, and also get much lower..
Metservice wrote:
Desert Road
Issued by MetService: 10:00pm Monday 6 Jul 2015
Valid Until: 10:00am Tuesday 7 Jul 2015
Brief snow is possible early Tuesday morning. Between 1am and 6am Tuesday, expect 1 to 2cm to accumulate about the summit. Rain is expected to turn to snow Tuesday evening, then clear for a time Wednesday afternoon. Between 8pm Tuesday and midday Wednesday, expect 5 to 10cm to accumulate about the summit. Snow lowering to 400 metres overnight Tuesday to Wednesday. Note, further snow is expected Wednesday evening through to Thursday morning.