Bradley wrote:Can't say I've ever seen these kind of figures forecast for Christchurch before, clearly we aren't going to get that amount but the models have been consistently throwing up huge rainfall figures the last few runs now
The models are predicting a strong MJO pulse in the next 15 days through phases 6 and 7, which are the phases which tend to increase easterly anomalies over NZ (with higher pressures south of the country, and lower pressures in the Tasman sea -phase 6, and then bringing the low pressure systems from the Tasman onto the country - phase 7).
So, an expectation of a move to a less westerly orientated phase and a more easterly or depression orientated phase for the first half of July is a reasonable bet.
Still a way out but looking promising for Ruapehu on Saturday. Correct me if I'm wrong but thinking 850 temps at -3 would bring the snow line to about 800-900m? MetUV showing a heap of moisture for that time..
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Models have backed off from that NI snow sadly. Have to keep an eye on the polar jet pattern but looks to be largely stuck in the southern oceans for now. But something will eventuate soon!
We had a very stable June over the upper North Island (apart from 2nd,3rd). Hopefully July will show more instability.
interesting how there is a named TC in the middle of winter in the southern hemisphere
seemingly a type of twinning from a strong westerly burst on the equator that was created initially by the sudden onset of the Indian monsoon...
Bradley wrote:I have to say I don’t what models Weather Watch were looking at to issue this statement only a day or so again, this event has been on the cards for at least 2 -3 days:
“Our latest guidance doesn't show any signs of any "Significant" polar blasts in the first few weeks of July”
Weatherwatch is way to conservative with their forecasts in my opinion, last blast was well understated by them...and there min/max temps from taupo are always far too mild...the town itself had a few days in the negatives and the lowest tmin forcast would be +2 to+4...can never understand why they try play safe.
Ha I thought Weather Watch usually over dramatized weather events now they are being to conservative.
Looks like some patchy cold rain for the upper North Island/Auckland Saturday. The thunderstorm potential with this system looks negligible due to fairly weak lapse rates for time of year, 6.4C and the better moisture stays well offshore. Should have a chance next week though with the colder airmass coming up, fingers crossed.
Southerly breeze strengthening here over the past half-hour or so;
looks like there is a big bank of fog or low cloud to the south, making its way in from the coast.
Ruapehu has been getting hammered with snow since 7pm and theres plenty of evidence to suggest it will keep going for the next few days, and also get much lower..
Brief snow is possible early Tuesday morning. Between 1am and 6am Tuesday, expect 1 to 2cm to accumulate about the summit. Rain is expected to turn to snow Tuesday evening, then clear for a time Wednesday afternoon. Between 8pm Tuesday and midday Wednesday, expect 5 to 10cm to accumulate about the summit. Snow lowering to 400 metres overnight Tuesday to Wednesday. Note, further snow is expected Wednesday evening through to Thursday morning.
