General August Weather

[spwill]

Looks cold for my trip to Queenstown this weekend, a chance of snow showers there on Saturday, a frosty Ridge there by Sunday.

[hozza95]

not good news at all. usually we are out picking up calves every 2 hours through the night when it snows. From late july to october is when we usually get our biggest snow here

[David]

Pleasant 19.1C high for Howick today, which is the highest August temperature my station has recorded so far

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

2oC today here.

[Tornado Tim]

Good amount of Lightning Activity in the Tasman this evening.

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Yes, I noticed that.
Wonder where it is headed?

[NZstorm]

Yes, I noticed that.
Wonder where it is headed?

There is lots of moisture in the mid Tasman. The modelling in not bringing it across to the North Island but Westland might catch a storm early morn.

[Razor]

Moisture looks to have dramatically fallen off for the weekend on GFS. Still early days but

[Bradley]

Moisture looks to have dramatically fallen off for the weekend on GFS. Still early days but

Yep and so did ECMWF forecast last night - almost be half actually. Will be interesting to see what this mornings run will bring and if this cold front will go the way of every other one this winter and downgrade 3-5 days before the event. You'd think we'd learn wouldn't you

[spwill]

The weather pattern has been trending more mobile for this weekend so the Winter system in the modelling is on the move.
A bitter cold system is still on track for the south with some snow.

[SnwAddct]

Ruapehu set to take a absolute hammering over the next couple of days! Lets hope there's some snow left by the weekend..

[Razor]

I think Tony's update this morning looks about on the nail, snow to 300m but not in great quantities. As per yesterday I completely agree the wind chill will be the factor for newborn stock more than any snow itself, at this stage!

SNOW FORECAST: As we get closer to the weekend there remains some uncertainty the data as to the details of this event, even though confidence of a very cold period remains high. We expect a period of snow above 500m early on Friday morning with 5-10cm above this level, followed by a clearance for the rest of Friday and into Saturday. Further snow showers are expected above 300m from later on Saturday afternoon or evening through Sunday into early Monday, but heavy falls are not expected. On Sunday evening or night snow flurries may briefly drop below 300m near the coast and over Banks Peninsula. Snow showers should clear later on Monday with significant frosts on Monday night.From later on Saturday through early Monday southwesterly winds will be strong and gusty, especially over Banks Peninsula, bringing significant windchills. These very cold temperatures will be hazardous to new born livestock.

[Bradley]

I have a feeling this winter will be one remembered for those of us who live 100m asl or below as a winter of near misses, there’s been a heap of action for those further south to sea-level and of course the big dump above 200m back in June in Canterbury but it’s either been 1C too warm or thickness levels 2-4 above what is needed for that real low level snow. Such a shame I was looking forward to some action after all the predications of an el-nino fuelled winter!

[Storm Struck]

I think you tend to see winter trends over the years to a degree depending on which phase we are in, some years we can go with no snow to sea level in canterbury for 6-7 years with it falling elsewhere.
The period of 1998 to 2004 was very poor but still seen snowfalls to near sea level around the outskirts of the city especially Hornby Hallswel Rolleston, then 2005 on September 19th seen that changed with snow 8-9cm to sea level.

Im just going to wait until closer to the event before I even get my hopes up, sitting on the fence has become a sport this year.
I did read somewhere that much of August is expected to be quite cold as sea surface temps are down by 1C for this time of the year, we shall see eh after having 3 mild days in a row im sure we will pip 21C again today.
Otherwise bring on spring and storm chasing

[Orion]

Some vicious wind-gusts here in the past few minutes

[trickytiger]

been averaging 40-50km/hr most the morning here, with on gust of 70.8km/hr at 3.08am this morning.

[Bradley]

I think you tend to see winter trends over the years to a degree depending on which phase we are in, some years we can go with no snow to sea level in canterbury for 6-7 years with it falling elsewhere.
The period of 1998 to 2004 was very poor but still seen snowfalls to near sea level around the outskirts of the city especially Hornby Hallswel Rolleston, then 2005 on September 19th seen that changed with snow 8-9cm to sea level.

Im just going to wait until closer to the event before I even get my hopes up, sitting on the fence has become a sport this year.
I did read somewhere that much of August is expected to be quite cold as sea surface temps are down by 1C for this time of the year, we shall see eh after having 3 mild days in a row im sure we will pip 21C again today.
Otherwise bring on spring and storm chasing

Jason apart from 1992 do you remember any other sea level snow events for Canterbury for those 7-8 years before 1998?

[03Stormchaser]

Snow to sea level is a rarity in Canterbury. I almost think ppl don't know just how cold it has to be and get caught up in the 'emotion' of wanting than being realistic about what models are showing. Mind you 2006 it caught ppl off guard.. Can't win can you!

[Bradley]

This event is looking like it might really affect places like Banks Peninsula above 400m, could be a foot of snow on some of the higher peaks there by Tuesday morning!

[Razor]

Just observed a flash of lightning over the port hills

[snowykiwi]

Blowing a gale here again in Rakaia this evening. Had very blustery conditions in Methven late morning today with the weather change, got quite colder with the spill over rain coming through. Wasn't expecting the weather to change like that up there this morning, very unexpected.

[03Stormchaser]

Just observed a flash of lightning over the port hills

Funny you say this, was looking at the clouds and thought nothing would surprise me more if it dropped a random lightning strike. I didnt see it but not surprised

[NZ Thunderstorm Soc]

Having trouble with the NZ Radar network at the moment, only showing 2 6pm readings, 6.36 and 6.43pm?

[tich]

Just observed a flash of lightning over the port hills

Funny you say this, was looking at the clouds and thought nothing would surprise me more if it dropped a random lightning strike. I didnt see it but not surprised

Coming back from Akaroa to Chch this afternoon, there were showers right through the about Motukarara, but didn't notice any thunderstorm activity.

[Bradley]

ACCESS still going for a big dump of snow to low levels in Canterbury on Saturday