Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

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David
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Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by David »

Much of the North Island and the top of the South Island look to be in the firing line for some heavy rain and/or strong winds early this week.
Issued: 2:48pm Saturday 29 Aug 2015
Valid from Monday 31 August 2015 to Thursday 3 September 2015

During Monday, a deepening low should approach northern New Zealand, then move southwards onto central New Zealand during Tuesday. An associated frontal system is likely to bring a period of heavy northeasterly rain to northern and central parts of the North Island, along with east to northeast gales. The heaviest rain is forecast from Northland to Bay of Plenty and northern Gisborne, and southwards to Tongariro National Park and Mount Taranaki, where there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain. Brief easterly rain brings a low risk of warning amounts during Tuesday from southern Gisborne to Wairarapa,as depicted on the chart.

As the frontal system moves southwards across the North Island, there is moderate confidence of east to northeast gales becoming severe for a time over western and central areas from Auckland to Kapiti, and over Nelson and Buller. The risk of severe gales reduces over Taupo and eastern Bay of Plenty.

As the low and frontal system moves onto central New Zealand during Tuesday, there is moderate confidence of warning amounts of rain for Marlborough and Nelson, easing into Wednesday. In addition, a period of westerly gales are possible for the lower North Island as the low moves past, and forecasters will monitor this.

During Wednesday, the low should move away to the east of the South Island, followed by a ridge of high pressure on Thursday.

http://www.metservice.com/warnings/seve ... er-outlook
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by David »

a bit misty this morning, can hear fog horns in the distance... Must be ferries at Half Moon Bay
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Richard »

Surely this system can finally bring some rain to the drought areas of North Canterbury, fingers crossed.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by NZstorm »

Warm front moving onto Auckland now with a decent spell of rain this morning. Precip should ease after midday and return later. The cold front comes through early tomorrow morning with potentially some very heavy rain and non zero thunder risk. Also whenever you have moist air moving south you have the risk of a localised tornado.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Nev »

David wrote:a bit misty this morning, can hear fog horns in the distance... Must be ferries at Half Moon Bay
Still pockets of low fog around here this morn. Most of last night looked like a combination of fog and light drizzle, which looked a bit weird under the full moonlight. Exactly 10mm here since late Saturday.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by spwill »

The Auckland dewpoint yesterday was around 15C so not much cooling required for fog, min temp overnight around 13C.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

'non zero thunder risk'
love it, LOL
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by David »

Only 13mm so far, doesn't seem to be as bad as forecast yet.
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Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by jamie »

David wrote:Only 13mm so far, doesn't seem to be as bad as forecast yet.
Its supposed to be tonight.

Bang on forecast here so far.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by NZstorm »

Manukau heads obs wrote:'non zero thunder risk'
love it, LOL
A round about way of saying low risk.

Latest midday modelling suggests NO thunder. The forecasting rule of thumb for thunder is convection tops must reach -20C and the cloud depth be atleast 3km. That requirement likely wont be met tomorrow morning but could happen Wednesday!
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Winds have been steadily increasing on the West Coast this afternoon and this evening .The severe easterly gales are due to begin midnight . Emergency, services and Civil Defence on standby. getting generators into key areas if required
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

25mm today here...eased alot for now...more on the way I see
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by spwill »

Some heavy showers to come through next hr or two before our weather brightens, a warm low of 14C overnight, 16mm at Greylynn since midnight
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by SnwAddct »

Torrential rain here in west Auckland..
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Richard »

Had a few spots so far, not looking like we will get much...again. :mad:
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by NZstorm »

Tropical downpour in Grey Lynn.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Orion »

In Auckland: "Emergency Services have now CLOSED Tamaki Drive from Ngapipi Road due to surface flooding and high tides..."
from
http://cdem.co/viewer.jsp?token=6sL9N6sc
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by NZstorm »

I see Ricky had 47mm last 24hrs. I got 53mm.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by jamie »

I'm up to 37mm from this event with another downpour yet to come by the looks.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by David »

Only 34mm for the event here, nothing particularly heavy in Howick this morning.
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by David »

Orion wrote:In Auckland: "Emergency Services have now CLOSED Tamaki Drive from Ngapipi Road due to surface flooding and high tides..."
from
http://cdem.co/viewer.jsp?token=6sL9N6sc
Yeah, the traffic was the worst I have ever seen this morning. Left 7.40am, turned around at 9.10am and came back home to work from home. I'm glad I did because my commute does include Tamaki Drive!
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by spwill »

Got the downpour here before 9am
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Manukau heads obs »

47mm here as well in total
There is now a lake at the bottom end of the valley here :)
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Chris Raine »

Gusty easterly in Buller and Greymouth .The rain bearing front has now slipped into Central and south Westland
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Re: Heavy rain & strong winds 31 Aug - 2 Sep

Unread post by Tornado Tim »

Quite a bit of heavy rain in Raglan,
SH23 as a result is closed due to flooding across the divy. Not good. Hopefully it will open later on today.....
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